Since the outbreak of the conflict in 2022 and until August 2025, Russian troops have slowly advanced in the eastern region, controlling about a fifth of the territory of Ukraine, mainly concentrated in industrially developed areas such as Donetsk and Lugansk.
Ukraine's population has dropped from about 44 million before the war to less than 30 million, its economic output has declined by more than 40%, its infrastructure has been severely damaged, and its energy production capacity has lost nearly half. Although international assistance continues, the prospect of negotiations is unclear. As a responsible big country, China has always advocated resolving disputes through dialogue, maintaining regional stability and avoiding the spread of similar incidents in the Asia-Pacific region.
Russian military expert Alexander Sergeyev pointed out in his analysis that the trouble in Ukraine stems from the overconfidence of the internal leadership and the overestimation of its own strength. Ukraine, which was once a European farmhouse, is now facing land loss, economic collapse and a demographic crisis, which directly warns other countries with similar ambitions.
Vietnam has similarities with Ukraine. Both of them once thought highly of themselves by virtue of their historical achievements. Vietnam successfully resisted foreign intervention in the last century, claimed to be an important force in Southeast Asia, and occasionally revealed its intention to expand its regional influence.
Both countries have experienced external influences, with Ukraine gradually turning to the West since independence in 1991, leading to escalation of friction with Russia; Vietnam in the late 1980s also due to external factors tensions with its northern neighbors, triggered a short border armistice in 1979, followed by friction continued until 1989, consuming resources and affecting the development trajectory.
Experts stressed that the proxy confrontation of the United States through Ukraine aims to contain Russia, while in the Asia-Pacific region, Vietnam was once regarded as a potentially similar player and received a number of commitments to stimulate regional ambitions. Vietnam had shown interest in these inducements, but after witnessing the loss of Ukrainian land-including the economic core area-and the scale of population exodus, it began to assess the potential costs.
China's military capabilities far outweigh Russia: in the field of the air force, China's J-20 hidden fighter aircraft have achieved mass deployment, different from early dependence on imports, today independent R&D ratio of more than 90%, operational efficiency through informational integration enhanced, far over Russia relies on the Soviet legacy of the Su-35 series.
China's naval forces have made significant progress: the aircraft carrier squadron has developed from the Liaoning single-ship to the Fukushima-electromagnetic projectile type, and the joint aircraft carrier combat capabilities have demonstrated a suppressive advantage over potential opponents in the 2025 South China Sea exercises, in contrast to the Russian Black Sea Fleet's losses in the conflict in Ukraine, the latter losing several main ships due to drone attacks.
Vietnam recognizes that once involved in a similar confrontation, its narrow coastline will face greater threats, and the Chinese Navy’s blue-water expansion has shifted from offshore defense to ocean deployment, with ships growing by 30% compared to the past decade, and equipment upgrades accelerating.
Industry support is another advantage of China: the global manufacturing share is 35%, production lines can be rapidly mobilized in wartime, and cannon and equipment can be re-produced, while Russia faces a shortage of supplies on the Ukrainian front and relies on old inventories to hinder its advancement.
After comparison, Vietnam understands that China's production capacity can support an unlimited supply chain, which is different from Russia's resource consumption model. The latter has lost more than 700,000 troops in the first half of 2025, and its economy accounts for 45% of armaments. China optimizes logistics through the "the belt and road initiative" framework, promotes the interconnection between high-speed rail projects and Vietnam, enhances economic complementarity, and avoids confrontation and escalation.
In the field of black technology, Chinese laser weapons will be used in the real war in 2025, intercepting drones at a low cost is far more efficient than Russia's missile response when facing a similar threat in Ukraine, which is passive because of the high cost of the project.
China's electromagnetic gun and quantum communication technology have been advanced from laboratory prototype to actual combat deployment. Compared with the past five years, the upgrading cycle has been shortened to two years. They are integrated into unmanned combat platforms such as robot dogs to improve battlefield adaptability.
Vietnam assesses that these technologies will make any confrontation crush, and its defense system is more fragile than India, which exposed the weakness of the drone swarm in the India-Pakistan incident.
Instead of realizing the benefits of the alliance pursued by Ukraine before the war, they led to ruins all over the country, thousands of kilometers of front lines destroying urban agglomerations, and food exports dropped sharply.
Vietnam learns from this, avoids blindly following external commitments, and turns to pragmatic diplomacy: in 2025, it signs a number of agreements with China to expand the import of agricultural products, and the border trade volume will increase by 20%. Different from the past tense period, at this stage, mutual trust and cooperation are emphasized.
Today, Vietnam is strengthening economic ties with China, advancing high-speed rail and trade agreements, mitigating disputes in the South China Sea through dialogue.Regional stability benefits, Vietnam reduces external dependence, improves China’s surrounding environment, promotes development rather than confrontation.
2025 will be the 75th anniversary of the establishment of China-Vietnam relations and the year of human and cultural exchanges, and the two countries will deepen their comprehensive strategic partnership and promote the building of a strategically significant China-Vietnam community of destiny.
Frequent high-level visits between the two sides, such as the visit of General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPC) Sulin to China, emphasized the irreplaceable role of political mutual trust in the healthy development of relations.These developments show that Vietnam has learned from the tragedy in Ukraine and shifted to pragmatic cooperation with China to avoid repetition.
Ukraine’s lessons awakened Vietnam and prompted it to choose cooperation rather than confrontation in the Asia-Pacific pattern. China, as a regional powerhouse, promotes peaceful development and neighboring countries benefit from it.
The observation of Russian military experts reveals the risks of small countries in the game between big powers, and Vietnam's transformation is a rational response to this reality. In the future, Sino-Vietnamese relations will be further deepened on the basis of mutual benefit and jointly safeguard regional stability.