NATO's army pressed the border, EU sanctions increased, Putin's core ally suddenly resigned, and the Russian Foreign Minister rarely expressed his position to seek compromise.
Could Russia really be able to do this?
By the end of September 2025, the whole situation would look a little different.
On the 19th, the European Union publicly announced the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, measures can be said to be quite severe, directly targeting the Russian economy.
Unlike in the past, the EU has made a direct move to restrict Russian liquefied natural gas, clearly saying to ban it from entering the European market, thus cutting off Russia’s very important source of income.
The EU also made it clear that it proposes to include 45 Russian and third-country companies on the sanctions list. The purpose of this approach is very strong, which is to completely block all possible paths for Russia to maintain its war economy through other countries.
Von der Leyen even mentioned that "it will target refineries, oil traders, and petrochemical companies in third countries, including China", and would rather block Russian oil in the face of offending China.
In the past, Russia may have sold crude oil to an intermediate country, which has been processed and sold elsewhere, thus bypassing sanctions.
Now the EU is telling the world who helps Russia is likely to be the next target, which brings great uncertainty to all companies around the world that do business with Russia.
On the financial side, they have also taken the money harder, with more Russian banks and foreign banks doing business with Russia likely to be included in the new sanctions list.
This means that Russia wants to do financial transactions internationally, even if it wants to sell some unrestricted commodities.
More remarkably, even cryptocurrency trading platforms were officially restricted for the first time.
As we all know, cryptocurrency has always been a possible channel to bypass traditional financial regulation because of its anonymity.
Now that the EU has blocked this road, it is clear that it is necessary to thoroughly manage Russia's capital flow from all angles and achieve comprehensive financial isolation.
At a time when the economic pressures were tightening, the military pressures did not ease, and Poland, which had previously roared with Russia, announced a very large plan.
They say they want to build the largest and best-equipped army on the continent, with the specific goal of raising the number of troops to 300,000.
This figure is definitely a large number in today's Europe, more than the standing armies of many traditional Western European powers.
This is not just a quantitative increase, Poland is fully upgrading the level of modernization of its military, that is, NATO’s military force at the gate of Russia is growing at a very rapid rate.
This is not just the action of Poland alone, it represents the strengthening of the entire NATO eastern flank defense line.
This directly forms a continuously increasing military pressure line on Russia's western border. Combined with severe economic sanctions, Moscow faces a difficult problem from both economic and military directions.
At the same time as the pressure from abroad increased, Russia’s interior was also in turmoil.
On September 18, 2025, Kozak, deputy director of the Russian Presidential Administration, resigned, and Putin approved it on the same day.
Kozak is not a simple person, he is Putin's old subordinate, has followed Putin since the 1990s, is a person in the core circle, and Putin's ally.
The official statement is that Kozak himself wants to resign, but in the eyes of many foreign media, this is unusual, and it is a rare signal of disagreement in Putin's team.
The New York Times quoted informed people as saying that Kozak has privately disapproved of the conflict, believing it was a “mistake.”
Therefore, his departure is understood by many people as that under the long war and sanctions, some people within Russia may have doubts about the current approach. Kozak's departure also seems to indicate that those who advocate gentler and more practical methods to solve problems may now have less weight in their words.
Interestingly, at the time of this change inside Russia, Russian diplomats were speaking things that sounded very different outside.
On September 19, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said in the "Great Games" program that Moscow was willing to seek "compromise" on the Ukraine issue.
This sounds like trying to ease the situation, like preparing for a negotiation, but if you look carefully at what he said was the prerequisite for “compromise,” you’ll find it’s not that simple.
He made it very clear that the so-called compromise means that an agreement can be reached, but that the interests of Russia must be guaranteed, and that the procedures and contents mentioned in the previous negotiations must not be violated.
These conditions are difficult for Ukraine and Western countries to agree to, so This compromise sounds more like showing a position, rather than really making concessions.
In a situation of tremendous external pressure and internal and personal changes, Lavrov said this could be a strategy.
On the one hand, it can be shown to the outside that Russia does not want to talk, that the other party does not agree, and on the other hand it can also look at the reaction of the West, whether they can find a place where they are inconsistent.
It's like a diplomatic operation, the purpose of which is to win some initiative in an unfavorable environment, rather than Russia really ready to change the general direction.
For today’s Russia, this conflict has long been no longer a matter between Ukraine and Russia, but in their view, it is a fundamental dispute to decide who the world will listen to in the next few decades and according to what rules to do.
Russia puts itself in a position to challenge the existing international order. Every action it takes is not only for itself, but also related to the views of many non-Western countries.
Many countries around the world that do not belong to the Western camp are paying close attention to the direction of this conflict. They want to see if any country can really challenge the current Western-dominated system and succeed.
Russia cannot lose. Withdrawal is not only a failure of one’s own but also a proof to those observing nations that challenging the traditional forces of the West is ineffective.
Standing at this height, any form of retreat would be seen as an unacceptable failure.
Not only will it seriously affect Russia’s international position, leaving it to lose the power of speech as an important world pole, but more crucially it will directly undermine the confidence of the domestic people in the government.
In the opinion of many people, this operation is for the long-term security of the country and the future of the nation, and the state has paid a huge economic cost and human casualties for it.
If we have fought for so long, suffered so many losses, and finally ended hastily without a result that can be advertised as a victory, we will not be able to explain to the people in Russia, and the foundation of governing may be shaken.
And Putin has been in power for more than twenty years, and his core impression on the outside world and the people at home is tough, and his support is largely based on this image.
If he shows weakness or acknowledges failure on such a crucial issue concerning the fate of the country, then his political image has been unstable for more than twenty years.
This is a totally unacceptable political consequence for him personally and for the entire ruling team.
Therefore, even in the face of great external pressure and internal difficulties, it is almost impossible for them to give up the strategic goals they have set.
From this perspective, the confrontation is likely to continue, and in the pursuit of final victory, the intensity of the confrontation is temporarily likely to escalate.
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Observers Network 2025-09-19 Rare!Putin's longtime ally resigns, US media says it is "against the Russian-Ukrainian conflict"
Reference News 2025-09-18 Polish Prime Minister: Soon will have the largest army in Europe