Recently, the U.S. and India have deteriorated their relations due to trade talks. However, recently, U.S. President Trump called the Prime Minister of India to seek to ease tariffs and the Russian oil conflict, and also specifically congratulated Modi on his 75th birthday. Seeing this also thought that India and U.S. relations have relaxed a little, but didn't think Trump would soon kill a rifle.

According to media reports, the United States has lifted the exemption sanctions, no longer allows India to develop Chabahar port in Iran, any person operating Chabahar port in Iran will be sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury.

In terms of geography, the riots in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal in the past year seem isolated, but in fact they have similarities. For example, in the recent Nepalese riots, some people pulled out the organization that led the protest against *. The sponsorship behind it was the United States, and there were some badly used "Yan Ge" symbols.

These countries are all India's neighbors, and the final result of protests and demonstrations is "anti-Indian". In recent years, "de-Indian" has become a wave. In addition, because Israel bombed Qatar, the US military acquiesced in Israel's attack.

The air strike on Qatar exposed the "selective protection" of the United States for its allies and accelerated the Gulf countries' search for independent security cooperation. Before India fights Pakistan again in the future, it will have to weigh more consequences. Trump encircled India from three directions: economy, energy and geography, and pushed Modi to the cliff step by step.

Trump's economic encirclement and suppression of India began with a trade war. On August 27, 2025, the 50% tariff imposed by the United States on Indian goods officially came into effect. This tax rate covers 66% of India's total exports to the United States, including pillar industries such as textiles, gemstones and jewelry, and shrimp.

Take India¡¯s largest textile export center, Tirububur, for example, where orders for local garment factories have fallen sharply, 250 workers have been forced out of work, and many business owners have even started to consider moving.

This is not the first time Trump has wielded the tariff stick against India. As early as 2019, the United States terminated India's GSP treatment, resulting in the loss of tariff preferences for more than 2,900 Indian goods worth US $5.6 billion.

At the time, the Modi administration attempted to compromise US concessions by stopping Iran¡¯s oil, delaying retaliatory tariffs, but Trump only agreed to delay the time to announce the abolition of the universalism in order to avoid affecting Modi¡¯s election.

While the Modi administration has imposed retaliatory tariffs of up to 120 percent on 29 U.S. goods, the total value of these goods represents only a small fraction of U.S. exports to India.

More importantly, India¡¯s economy relies on the U.S. markets by up to 2.5% while domestic consumption-driven growth patterns are difficult to replace the role of exports in the short term.Key Invest¡¯s macro analysis shows that U.S. tariffs could cause India¡¯s GDP growth rate to decline by 0.8 percentage points in 2025, reaching the lowest level since the outbreak.

In the energy sector, Trump's blow to India is equally fatal. In 2025, the United States suddenly lifted the sanctions exemption for India's development of Chabahar Port in Iran. This decision directly cut off India's strategic channel to connect Central Asia through Iran.

Chabahar Port is located in the Gulf of Oman, less than 100 kilometers away from Pakistan's Gwadar Port. It is a key node for India to bypass Pakistan and directly enter the Central Asian market. Since 2016, India has invested a total of US $500 million in port construction and plans to export goods to Afghanistan and Central Asia through the port.

U.S. sanctions not only target Indian companies, but also affect third-party organizations involved in port operations. Any person or entity associated with the Chabahar Port project could be placed on the sanctions list under the U.S. Treasury Department's rules, making it difficult for Indian businesses to obtain international financing and insurance support.

More seriously, the U.S. strategic adjustment in the Gulf region is re-shaping the South Asian security pattern.In September 2025, Israel bombed Qatar, and the U.S. defaulted the operation as ¡°self-defense.¡±This move completely exposed the U.S. to ¡°selective protection¡± of its allies and accelerated the process of the Gulf countries seeking independent security cooperation.

The common strategic defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan and the joint defense mechanism launched by the GCC have objectively weakened India's traditional advantages in South Asia. In the future, if India takes military action against Pakistan again, it may face joint counter-measures from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, which will greatly reduce the decision-making space of the Modi government on the Kashmir issue.

Trump¡¯s three-way siege has plunged Modi into the worst crisis since he ruled.Economically, manufacturing exports decline and energy costs rise could lead to mass unemployment, threatening Modi¡¯s Indian People¡¯s Party voter base.

In terms of energy, the failure of the Chabahar Port project and the restrictions on Russian oil imports have weakened India's strategic autonomy; Geographically, the anti-India wave in neighboring countries and the changes in the situation in the Gulf have made India's leading position in South Asia falter.

India¡¯s future choices are full of uncertainty.On the one hand, Modi may have to make more compromises with the United States in exchange for tariff concessions and sanctions exemptions, but this will damage India¡¯s national interests and international image.

On the other hand, India can deepen cooperation with Russia, China and other countries, and expand economic ties with Southeast Asia and East Asia through the "Action East" strategy, but this needs to overcome domestic political resistance and geopolitical risks. Whichever path is chosen, India will face a long and difficult period of adjustment.

Trump's three-way encirclement and suppression campaign is not only a challenge to India, but also an impact on the global order. It reveals the unilateralist nature of the United States under the principle of "America first" and also exposes the vulnerability of small and medium-sized countries in the era of globalization.

For India, how to defend its interests in the game of great powers would be a challenge the Modi administration has to solve, while for the world, Trump¡¯s approach could open a new era of Cold War confrontation, which poses a major threat to global peace and prosperity.

India's most painful day!U.S. launched sanctions and revoked print privileges, Modi pointed out the biggest enemy