Russia warns, Russia warns.
When the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out in February 2022, the world was watching, and the Vietnamese didn’t have time, they naturally remembered their own border self-defense counterattack in 1979. At that time, Vietnam fought the Soviet Union, reconciled in Cambodia, still occupied islands in the South China Sea, along with small movements on the border.
China is intolerable, forces in January to advance the central north, control large areas, withdraw the army, take the can carry, burn the remainder. Vietnam does not give up, fight the old brother, continue on the old mountains, the mountains, the line with the Chinese army, enough to fight for a decade, to the early 1990s slowly ease. bilateral casualties are not small, but this has let Vietnam taste enough pain, also let China-Vietnam relations once fell to the ice point.
Now that Russia is fighting until September 2025, it is not over, Putin on May 11 proposed to resume the dialogue, Vietnam Foreign Ministry spokesman Van Shikun hastened to welcome, emphasizing a peaceful settlement.This is not just a matter, the Vietnamese are clear in their hearts: they borrowed the Soviet Union's expansion ambition to the east, the result is losing, now to see Ukraine being pulled away by NATO, Donetsk, Lugansk things are big, Russia's direct action, Ukraine's economic collapse, the world is full of refugees.
Vietnamese media and official voices say, stop this, don't get involved in the game of the great powers. After all, the Vietnamese economy in the past few years has stepped up, GDP growth in 2023 is 5.05%, in the first half of 2025 to 7.52%, relying on the stable environment, manufacturing, export pull. If Ukraine, the pro-Western alliance, the border of the South China Sea, the trade chain is broken, factories are closed, workers are unemployed, what will the day be?
China-Vietnam relations have taken a lot of work to repair.In 1991, diplomacy was restored, a land border treaty was signed in 1999, and the Declaration of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea in 2002 was also issued.In the new century, trade from 2 billion in 2000 to 17.13 billion in 2023, 235 billion in 2024, China became Vietnam's largest trading partner, and Vietnam's deficit to China is still expanding.
This is not for nothing. China helped Vietnam resist France and the United States and achieve reunification. After the founding of New China, it provided continuous assistance, rifles, ammunition and logistical support, all of which relied on these to win. In the era of Le Duan, he turned his face and used the split between China and the Soviet Union to stir up trouble, but now the two parties have frequent high-level visits, signed cooperation texts, launched the railway mechanism, and held the year of people-to-people exchanges in full swing. The foundation of the people's hearts has been solid. In April 2025, the Chinese and Vietnamese People's Gala will be held. Both sides said that they should consolidate the community of shared future.
Vietnamese are not fools, they know that history is not a child's play. Just after the third anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Vietnamese Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son reiterated balance at the Munich Security Conference. The United Nations General Assembly abstained from multiple condemnation resolutions, taking care of the face of the United States without hurting Russia-Vietnam imports most of its weapons from Russia, Su-30 Fighter jets and missiles all rely on its status as the fifth largest buyer.
In June 2024, Putin visited Vietnam, signed 12 agreements, educational justice coverage, the United States is not happy, but Vietnam looks like "bamboo diplomacy", does not choose side. Experts say that Vietnam's non-alliance policy is wise, study Ukraine? that is to find trouble, the economic root is broken, energy coal imports from China 54.8 million tons of 2020 data is still in sight, admitting that Hanoi Ho Chi Minh City lights are half destroyed.
Diplomatic Strength and Balance.
Vietnam's "bamboo diplomacy" is really not white-crying, Nguyen said in 2016, the bamboo roots are hard and soft, and diplomatically it is flexible to turn around, not holding the group, not standing. Russia and Vietnam have more fun. On February 24, 2022, Putin's speech just ended, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Vietnam called for restraint, and the United Nations reaffirmed international law and territorial integrity.
The resolution of March 2, 24, and October 10, all abstentions, February 23, 2023. the West did not, the EU, Norway and Switzerland UK ambassador joint letter, forcing Vietnam to stand up, saying that the era of the Soviet Union has passed, the new era stands on the sidelines. but Vietnam has topped up, in September 2024 the U.S. became a comprehensive strategic partner, in June 2024 Putin visited and signed an agreement, in January 2025 Sullivan visited China, balance is like steel wire.
This diplomacy is grounded, and Vietnam's economy has to rely on big countries to help it develop. China's investment will exceed 30 billion in 2023, photovoltaic auto parts projects will bloom everywhere, high-speed rail construction will start, an energy agreement will be signed in July 2025, and natural gas pipelines will be laid. Russia's weapons supply is stable, Kilo-class submarines will be launched in 2024, joint military exercises will be conducted in the Beibu Gulf, and the water column of shelling target ships will soar into the sky.
The U.S. side of the semiconductor agreement, signed by Washington in April 2025, but Vietnam is not stupid, does not join the Indo-Pacific Union, does not sign a military treaty. Expert Derek Grossman in 2022 that Vietnam is isolated in the South China Sea, Richard Bishop calculated ammunition for a week, can Vietnam ignore, continue to buy Russian goods, in May 2025 Shangri-La dialogue with Defense Minister Ban Ving Jiang said the South China Sea guidelines passed at the end of the year, at the latest in the beginning of 2026.
Vietnam knows that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has a negative impact on arms sales, Russia’s Southeast Asian order shell, repair of parts is difficult, but Vietnam stays stable, does not condemn no sanctions. In June 2025, the Russian-Ukrainian consultation, Vietnam welcomed the May 12 spokesman Van Shikun said it was good to resume the dialogue.
Global Southern Research Institute scholar Majer visited Vietnam news agency, saying China-Vietnam relations are best in history, political mutual trust and economic and trade humanitarian culture is fully deepened and exemplary. Zhao Huanghua article reminded that not simply Southern Northern parties divide Vietnam's attitude toward China, which misled decision-making. Vietnam's mainstream media calls for independence and avoid military confrontation, February 2024 White Paper issued, June ASEAN Foreign Ministers Pe Qingshan spoke calling for peace in the South China Sea.
This balance is not an easy thing, the pressure from the West continues, the G7 summit in 2023, the United States raises the rights and interests of the South Vietnam Sea, the European Parliament resolution urges sanctions on Russian companies, Vietnamese enterprises are affected, and the 2024 Russian petroleum tankers are facing censorship. But Vietnam is clever, the Deputy Prime Minister visited Ukraine in February 2025 to sign a mineral agreement to distribute aid.
Bamboo diplomacy has enabled Vietnam to stand firm in the changing situation, with an economic growth rate of 7.52% and a trade surplus of 379 million. In the first four months, the stock market jumped and the tower crane in the development zone turned. Russia's visit to Vietnam deepens its partners, and Putin praises Vietnam's balanced position. Vietnam relies on this resilience to have both sides.
South China Sea Undercurrent, Peaceful Choice
In the South China Sea, the deep water, the China-Vietnam differences are still, but the control is meaningful. in 2025 the situation is hot and not exploding, Beijing University's Center for Maritime Strategic Research in June that China-Vietnam relations are stable, high-level frequent, do not let the South China Sea damage the overall situation.
China is in the South China Sea and peacefully settled, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on March 28 stated that the substance of the problem is the neighbouring country's illegal occupation of China's island reefs, overlapping rights and interests.In January 2025, the U.S. South China Navy exercises, the United States aided the Philippines to Vietnam, funded equipment support, created tensions, and constricted China.
Vietnam's low-temperature flooding in Nansha, CSIS March 2025 data, the area of China 70%, plus eight new reefs to overtake the car.BBC said on August 28th, but Vietnam intervened in the sand reef in April, China-Philippines respect sovereignty and promote dialogue.April 2025, China-Vietnamese Maritime Police joint patrol of the northern bay, the 29th, since 2006, search for fishing surveillance model.
Vietnamese Defense Minister Phan Van Giang Shangri-La said in May that the guidelines would be adopted by the end of the year, and ASEAN-China negotiations would last for 20 years. Wu Shicun talked about the South China Sea in 2025 in December. Some countries should not take chances and violate China's bottom line. The United States put pressure on economy and trade, and the South China Sea action weakened, but scholars said not to take it lightly.
If Vietnam were to study Ukraine, the pro-Western alliance, the upgrading of the South China Sea border, China would not be soft. Economically, trade $205 billion, embargo tariffs, textile electronics shell, investment frozen, high-speed railway shutdown. Energy coal shutdown, power stopping industry paralysed. Military, naval reefs, missiles precision hit artificial islands, land-sea multi-line, 99A tanks jet-20 modernization, Vietnam's inventory limited. January 1979 counterattack, now more decisive.
But China is at peace, diplomatic consultation first, and the extreme can move. Vietnam's decision is cautious, keeping neutral cooperation deep, high-speed railway in the second half of 2025, trade 27.6 billion. offshore chain, factory lights out port vacuum. Hanoi high-level balance, bamboo roots land, wind over curvature. South China Sea standards advanced, Jakarta negotiations in June 2025, exchange draft. Vietnam's resilience was praised, the ASEAN summit in September opened in Hanoi, the South China Sea issue exchange views. Global change, Vietnam's balance art, economic prospects bright.