The Russia-Ukraine war has dragged on for so long, and it is about to enter its fourth year. Everyone is exhausted. Russia and Ukraine were exhausted from fighting, and the United States also joined forces with the West to assist Ukraine from the beginning, and instead began to ponder a ceasefire plan.
However, if the war really stops, will it trigger a series of chain reactions? Some analysts say that three countries may face the risk of national subjugation, and another country may be turned into the next "Ukraine" by the West.
The wounds of Ukraine are full, the refugee crisis is approaching
First of all, Ukraine, the biggest victim of the three years of war, has suffered severe economic and infrastructure losses, and according to the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, the losses have reached $560 billion, which is equivalent to about three times the pre-war Ukrainian GDP for the entire year, and this figure is still rising.
The economic growth rate for 2024 is expected to be negative at 3%, which indicates that Ukraine is quite pessimistic about the economic outlook for the future. Foreign debt has accumulated as much as $160 billion, and fiscal pressure is so great that it can not go away. Russia also owns large parts of the east, including the Donbass region, Zaporizhia and parts of Helsinki.
According to media reports, the Ukrainian president has a negative attitude toward the current war situation and the prospects for negotiations, saying that now there is no way to recover the land lost, but only through negotiations on a ceasefire. Hearing about the possibility of a ceasefire agreement on April 20, the United States will recognize Russia's control zone in Ukraine, while Ukrainian troops withdraw from Russian Kursk and no longer join NATO.
Isn’t it that the United States is exchanging a ceasefire for Ukraine’s land and interests? Once on the negotiating table, Ukraine is the biggest loser in the war. After the war, Ukraine faces permanent territorial division and economic reconstruction requires a lot of money, but Western aid may gradually decrease, because of the big domestic political change in the United States, and Trump’s loss of patience for aid after his rise to power, and may significantly reduce support.
Ukraine’s population has declined sharply, millions of refugees have been displaced, the humanitarian crisis is severe, infrastructure is damaged, food exports are blocked, and domestic reconstruction programmes face huge challenges. United Nations data show that the population in need of aid in Ukraine reaches 12.7 million, and the start of reconstruction is uncertain due to a lack of security.
Russia's proposed ceasefire conditions include Ukraine's withdrawal from the eastern region and not joining NATO, which puts Ukraine's security at risk.Without strong international safeguards and mechanisms like NATO, Ukraine will easily be re-engaged in conflict in the future, and the risk of falling country is not a play.
From China's perspective, this war has exposed the essence of Western hegemony. The United States and NATO are expanding eastward step by step, ignoring Russia's security concerns, leading to the escalation of conflicts.
China has always advocated resolving disputes through dialogue, promoting a multipolar world, and preventing this game of big powers from pushing small countries to the brink of extinction. The lesson for Ukraine is that dependence on the West does not necessarily bring security, but may become a pawn and be sacrificed.
Israel Isolated in the Middle East, the Summit Disappears
Although Israel is far away from Europe, the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war will also bring severe challenges. In October 2023, Hamas launched a large-scale rocket attack from Gaza, triggering Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, with multiple resistance groups joining, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict escalating.
On January 19, 2025, a new round of ceasefire agreement was reached, but Israel's international image was greatly damaged, and its position and influence in the Middle East was shaken.Now the conflict in Ukraine has not stopped, and the international focus is mainly in Europe, and once the war is over, Israel is likely to become crowded.
Middle Eastern nations remain hopeful that if they unite to trigger a new round of war in the Middle East, the United States will not have time to say whether Israel will be able to win together like the previous five Middle Eastern wars.
The prolonged Russian-Ukrainian war has weakened Russia’s influence in the Middle East, especially its weakened support for Syria, Iranian-backed groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah have been severely injured, and Israel has the opportunity to fight Iran’s military technology.
Iran attacked Israel from its homeland in April and October 2024 and Israeli counterattacks destroyed targets, but the war continued to worsen Israeli finances, recalling 360,000 reserves leading to a shortage of personnel in the tech and financial industries.
Trump promised to end the conflict in the Middle East but had no specific plans that Israel’s isolation in the Middle East would deepen if the U.S. reduced aid.The United Nations pushed for the “two-country plan”, but Israel faced more resistance, and the Middle East countries joined forces to escalate potential confrontation.
From China's standpoint, peace in the Middle East is important to China's energy security. China supports the establishment of a Palestinian state, promotes reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and prevents the West from using conflicts to disrupt the Middle East. China disapproves of Israel's expansion, believing that it will aggravate regional instability, and the risk of national subjugation is a self-inflicted consequence for Israel.
The Korean Peninsula is in turmoil, and the survival moment is coming
Although South Korea is far in Asia, but located on the Korean Peninsula, the only land neighbor is North Korea. The two countries have confronted for years, the contradictions are difficult to solve. South Korea's economy is developed, but militarily dependent on the United States, North Korea has a complete military-industrial system, or a nuclear country.
Last year, North Korea and Russia signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty, and the geopolitical situation was more complicated. Once the Russia-Ukraine war ends, the strategic focus of the United States may shift from Europe to the Asia-Pacific, and the Korean Peninsula will become a new battlefield for the competition between major powers. Domestic turmoil in South Korea, under internal and external pressure, is likely to end in tragedy.
North Korea provided weapons and personnel assistance to Russia, worth nearly $1 billion, and North Korean troops deployed to the front line in Ukraine, exacerbating tensions on the peninsula. South Korea strengthens its alliance with the United States and Japan and conducts military exercises in Seoul in April 2025 to simulate intercepting missiles. North Korea launched garbage balloons, South Korea collected and inspected them, and tension escalated. Kim Yuzheng rejected South Korea's peace proposal, and North Korean media stated a hostile attitude.
If Trump ends the Russian-Ukrainian war, North Korea's economic betting on Russia may be reversed, demand changes in both countries, and North Korea's military industry still benefits, but overall is bad for South Korea. Russia improves relations with South Korea, but with North Korea's leverage affects South Korea. South Korea urges Russia to stop cooperating, but if the US military moves east, South Korea is weak in the game, domestic protests increase, and the situation worsen.
From a Chinese perspective, stability on the Korean Peninsula is crucial to China, and China opposes U.S. confrontation in the Asia-Pacific, promotes dialogue to resolve the nuclear issue and avoids South Korea from becoming a bridgehead for the West to contain China.
In addition, the country that could be “Ukrainian” by the West, Belarus, is like Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, close to Russian culture, close political and military cooperation. Russia’s neighbouring countries such as Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Sweden have joined NATO, even if the Ukraine-Russia ceasefire and Russian-Ukrainian relations can’t return before the war.
Russia only has Belarus as a security buffer zone. The West will not change its direction of containing Russia. After losing the Ukrainian pawn, it is likely to target Belarus and turn it into the next "Ukraine" by influencing internal political decisions.
Belarus faces extreme tensions with the West, Brussels accuses Minsk of supporting Moscow, human rights issues exacerbating opposition. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense accuses NATO of deploying troops in Poland and the Baltic Sea, with great border pressure. Lukashenko hopes Trump ends the conflict, but Belarus is at high risk, and once controlled by the West, the Russian strategic barrier collapses, with severe consequences.
China supports Belarusian sovereignty, opposes interference in the internal affairs of the Western colour revolution, China and Belarus cooperate closely with the economy to promote the Belt and Road Initiative, avoiding the West from turning Belarus into a tool of confrontation.
In general, the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war was not a mere ceasefire, but a geographical reconstruction. The three countries faced the loss because of Western hegemony, Belarus was “Ukrainianized” and the continuation of Western expansion. China advocated peaceful dialogue, building a multi-polar world, avoiding this tragedy from repeating. This is about global stability, and we must be careful of the consistent pathway of the West.