A few days ago, Mr. Marcos was still busy buying Ukrainian weapons and trying to find his face in the South China Sea.On September 21, the protests in the Philippines evolved into riots, and the little Marcos himself disappeared without a trace, will the history of the Philippines be repeated?

On September 21, more than 100,000 people flocked to the streets of Manila, the capital of the Philippines, where demonstrators confronted police for a day, burning tires, attacking police shields with stones and burning bottles... until the police used tear gas and the crowd gradually dispersed.

On this day, more than 20 cities in the Philippines held simultaneous protests. Their slogan was "Severely punish corruption and recover the embezzled funds in flood control projects". According to media reports, the flood control project involves as much as $18 billion, and it is unknown how much corruption there is.

In fact, this protest has been happening sporadically in the Philippines for several months. The reason why it reached its peak on the 21st is that this day is the anniversary of Marcos' declaration of martial law in 1972, and the gate of people's suffering is completely vented on this day. In this chaos, President Marcos Jr. 's death has become a mystery. US media reported that his whereabouts are unknown, and he has not made a public appearance so far.

Before, in order to calm the public anger, the little Marcos also did some face-to-face work, he left his cousin involved in the case, the Philippine House of Representatives Martin Romualds resigned, fired public works minister Bonoan, but the people did not buy the bill, believing that there was no touch to the fundamental, the government was in the leak.

The situation in the Philippines now is very similar to that of the old Marcos when he took office in 1986. At the time, the old Marcos was crazy to make money by various means, and his family members also used power to scratch wealth, leading to the gap between poor and wealthy in the Philippines, and the people did not live. During the general election, the old Marcos used his control over the military and government, openly cheated in the election, falsified votes, claimed to win, this act completely angered the people, triggered a wave of protests, and eventually led to the fall of the army, and Marcus was expelled to the United States.

So is the situation the same now as it was 40 years ago? Xiaobian talks about 2 views.

First, the attitude of the Philippine military is crucial.At present, the Philippine armed forces have entered the "red alert" state, but the upper level has shown no signs of escaping civilian control.

This is different from the fall of some of the armies in 1986.The loyalty of the military is an important cradle inining the stability of the current government.The force that has changed the course of the history of the Philippines many times, the current attitude is relatively neutral, with no explicit support or opposition to the government.This subtle balance state largely determines the course of the current situation.

Second, the nature of protest movements is different. The organizers of this protest made it clear that their goal was not to overthrow the Marcos regime, but to recover corrupted funds and hold those involved accountable. This kind of appeal is relatively restrained, which reflects the strategic maturity of the opposition forces, and also shows that they are not ready to completely subvert the regime. Compared with the full-scale revolutionary demands of 1986, this protest is more like a precision strike against systemic corruption.

Another thing is that Marcos Jr. also learned from the experience and lessons of his father Marcos and responded with a relatively gentle attitude without further intensifying the contradiction. For example, he promised to set up an independent team to investigate, showing his willingness to solve the problem.

Judging from the current situation, the Philippines is standing at the crossroads of history and may face two different prospects in the future.

The first is slow compromise and reform, which is also the most likely but difficult path. This requires Marcos Jr. to show superb political wisdom, throw more senior officials as scapegoats by "abandoning the car to protect the handsome", promote some symbolic reforms, partially restore the budget of the affected areas, and gradually quell public anger.

The second is a dramatic regime change. That is to say, the anti-corruption investigation continues to deepen, directly implicating Marcos Jr. himself or his core family members, or the opposition successfully integrates all forces to form a United front. This possibility is relatively small.

In addition, the attitude of the international community cannot be ignored. As an important ally of the Philippines, the change of attitude of the United States may have a significant impact on the situation. If the United States questioned Marcos Jr. 's governance ability, it could shake domestic support for the government. In addition, the choices of other political forces such as the Duterte family will also affect the development of the situation to a certain extent.

Regardless of the outcome, the social turmoil has shown the world that the tolerance of the Philippine people to corruption has reached its limit, and the Little Marcos government could face even more serious challenges if it fails to face the issue and take concrete action.

# Will the Philippines welcome a pro-China president in advance #