«--[· Preface ·]--»
Canada was "greedy", and the Chinese order was transferred to Australia, and the purchase was 540,000 tons. What remedial measures has Canada taken in the face of pressure? Will China change its mind?
What is the sign behind the 550,000-ton order transfer to Australia?
In October last year, Canada followed the United States in imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, and also took action on steel and aluminum productsChina is not a soft tomato, immediately launched a counterattack. An anti-dumping investigation was launched on Canadian rapeseed.
By August this year, directly announced the collection of 75.8% collateral. This means that Canadian oil seed exports to China almost doubled the cost at once.Canada exports $4.9 billion annually to China, accounting for one-third of its global exports, and more than 40,000 farmers in Western Canada lose tens of thousands of dollars per capita.
On the other hand, Canada has a rough amount of money, but Australia has stealed the flowers.In the past few years, China-Australia relations have been rough because of iron ore, wine and other issues, but this year the two sides suddenly began to "break the ice".
First, the Australian Defense Minister and the Chinese Defense Minister held talks in Singapore, and then Australian Prime Minister Albanese publicly stated that he "wants to do business with China". Just as China needed to find a substitute for Canadian rapeseed, Australia quickly handed an olive branch.
Although there are no direct data to show that the 550,000 tons of orders are all oil seeds,But from the Chinese customs action can be seen a clue: in the first three months of this year, the import of Chinese eaten oil seeds decreased by 6.3%, but the import of wheat and beef from Australia has grown significantly.
Can the Canadian minister hurry to visit China, can it save the situation?
Canada, of course, is unwilling to lose the Chinese market in early September. The governor of Saskatchewan province, Moe, visited China with parliamentary secretary Blois, directly referring to the trip as "the tour of oil seeds."
They met with officials from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce of China, and went to Beijing, Shanghai and other places to talk about cooperation. Moi scratched his head anxiously at the press conference: "Canadian rapeseed is of the best quality in the world, and Chinese consumers have always liked it very much. We hope to resolve trade differences as soon as possible." He even hinted that Canada may adjust tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and use this to exchange orders for rapeseed.
But Canada's calculator may be wrong.China's counter-measures against Canada are not the decision to shoot the head.Last year, Canada, on the basis of "national security", excluded Huawei, ZTE from the 5G network, and also hyped the Chinese military aircraft "provocation" incident, these have led China-China relations to the ice point.
More importantly, China has found an alternative. In addition to Australia, Russian and Ukrainian peanut seeds also enter the Chinese market.Russia’s peanut oil could even replace Canada, becoming a price benchmark for the Chinese market.
Farmers in western provinces block the government’s doors every day, demanding an urgent resumption of exports to China; manufacturing in the east is concerned that lifting electric car tariffs would impact the domestic industry. Some experts even suggest that Canada should learn about Australia, be gentle with China first and abolish those “politically correct” tariffs, otherwise it will only push the Chinese market further and further.
«--[· How good is China's move? ·]--»
On the surface, this is just an ordinary purchase of agricultural products, but behind it lies China's strategic layout. First of all, this is a powerful counterattack against Canada's trade bullying. China tells the world with practical actions: If anyone wants to use tariffs as weapons, China will definitely accompany them to the end.
Secondly, this is optimizing import channels. In the past, 80% of China's rapeseed depended on Canada. Once the relationship between the two countries is tense, the supply chain will go wrong. Now it is scattered to Australia, Russia and other countries, which is equivalent to "double insurance" for food security.
The far-reaching impact is that China is re-shaping the global agricultural trade pattern.For every 1% decrease in Canada’s oil seeds market share, other countries are replenishing.
This is a signal to agricultural powers such as Brazil and Argentina: As long as there are good relations with China, there are big orders waiting.In turn, those countries that follow the United States to build a “House Wall” will only find their way narrower.
Now, Canadian ministers are still “negotiating” in Beijing, but China’s stance is clear: It is possible to re-establish trade, but it must be honest.After all, in the era of globalization, no one can be separated from anyone. If Canada continues to hold the Cold War mindset, I am afraid that it will not only lose 54,000 tons of orders, but also miss China, the world's largest consumer market.
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