Since Trump returned to the White House, he has been publicly disclosing his desire to talk and meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on several occasions.This time, Kim Jong-un finally gave a response, but also put Trump in a difficult situation.
Recently, the Korean Central News Agency reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un delivered a speech at the 13th meeting of the 14th Supreme People's Assembly, which closed the day before. The core content was two sentences:
First, North Korea will fix in its national laws that "Korea and South Korea are two countries that are not affiliated with each other, and will absolutely not merge," and completely shut down the imaginary space for "the reunification of the Korean Peninsula."
Second, he said that he still has a good impression of the current U.S. President Trump, but he said that "as long as the Trump administration gives up the idea of denuclearizing North Korea, the two sides can sit down and talk."
Kim emphasized in particular that in the previous period, the “stage-by-stage denuclearization” proposal put forward by the United States and South Korea destroyed the basis and legitimate grounds for negotiations with North Korea.
That is to say, he told Trump: If you want to meet me again, no problem, but you have to follow my rules. What is the rule? is that you the United States must recognize that North Korea is a nuclear country, and then talk about peaceful coexistence.
South Korean President Lee has been pushing for mitigation since he took office, and even publicly invited Trump to "go to North Korea in the future to play golf" in an attempt to play a mediator role.
But this time, North Korea directly took the status of a "nuclear state" as a negotiation prerequisite, and forced the United States to choose between "allied position" and "possibility of negotiation".
If the Trump administration shows a trace of tendency to accept North Korea's nuclear support, the trust relationship between South Korea and the United States will encounter an unprecedented impact, and may even shake the basic structure of wartime command and military cooperation.
And if we continue to adhere to North Korea’s denuclearization proposal, then the plan to attract North Korea against China and Russia will fail completely.
Kim Jong-un’s move, seemingly moderate and real sharp, directly shattered Trump’s entire plan.
In fact, this is not a whim, but a thorough finalization of North Korea's national security strategy.
Kim said in his speech that "the United States does not want to give up North Korea with sanctions in exchange for nuclear weapons", and pointed to the end of some countries' disarmament, although no specific names, but everyone knows that it is Ukraine.
In 1994, Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons under the security guarantee of the United States, Russia and Britain. As a result, it fell into war thirty years later, and U.S. aid changed again and again. This example has been repeatedly quoted by North Korea and has become their best lesson plan for "self-protection with nuclear weapons".
In other words, North Korea clearly tells the world: Don't trade illusory promises for my nuclear bomb.
Therefore, Trump’s response will be the key to the next phase of the situation on the peninsula.
As early as 2023-2024, Trump and his national security team have repeatedly released signals that they "may accept North Korea's limited nuclear possession." Although it has not been officially confirmed, it has been interpreted by the outside world as a possible major change in U.S. policy toward North Korea.
Now Kim Jong-un is publicly shouting that the reality is to kick the ball back in the US half-field – you want dialogue or denuclearization?
Kim Jong-un chose to throw this card when the Trump administration's Asia-Pacific policy swayed, obviously to seize the diplomatic initiative.
In addition, there are analysts that Kim Jong-un recently visited China and attended the 9.3 parade commemoration, during which time China may provide more clear support on the strategic level to face North Korea, China's economic cooperation and political backbone, is leaving North Korea gradually out of the state of international isolation.
With the economic stability and the continued strengthening of the military, North Korea is returning to the international game with a more confident gesture.
At the moment, North Korea isly preparing a massive parade, probably to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the Labour Party, if new nuclear weapons or long-range missiles were to be displayed at the time, it would obviously be another strong demonstration against the United States.
The situation on the peninsula is entering a brand-new game stage. China has repeatedly reminded the United States to "not meddle in peninsula affairs", but now it seems that all this is developing in the direction expected by China.
Kim Jong-un was not "set up" by the United States and South Korea, but instead made use of his strength to throw the difficult problem back to the other side. While showing off his military strength, he opened the door to negotiations, but the threshold was set extremely high-so high that almost only the Trump administration might consider taking this step.
The next focus worth paying attention may be:
- Will Trump accept the premise of North Korea’s nuclear possession? second, how will South Korea respond to a possible direct US-DPRK dialogue? third, will North Korea’s parade showcase a new type of strategic weapon? fourth, will China and Russia publicly support North Korea’s new stance?
All this will become an important factor affecting the situation on the peninsula.
The peninsula seems to be moving from the "old era of denuclearization negotiations" to the "new reality of nuclear deterrence balance". Kim Jong-un's move seems simple, but it is actually profound. He is not only playing a game with Trump, but also playing a game with the international order dominated by the whole West. In the meantime, North Korea seems to have found its own rhythm.