The world is now betting on China and the United States who can not bear it first. The current situation is that China has goods, the United States has money, but the United States has money not to buy Chinese goods, China has goods but can not sell for money. This global economic sweeping war, on the surface is supply and demand imbalance, the truth is the ultimate game of scarcity and value. goods and money, which is harder? the answer is hidden in the market logic and the status of the two countries.
Both sides seem to have their own advantages, but once trade is stuck, it is difficult for the United States to buy Chinese things no matter how rich it is, and no matter how many Chinese goods it has, it cannot be easily exchanged for money. The contest behind this is actually more complicated than the book figures. In the final analysis, it is the question of who is harder, entity or credit.
The United States has been relying on the dollar for years to “buy” the world, but recently the pyramid sign has begun to fade.
Previously, other countries producing oil and mining earned money, like to hold the dollar and U.S. bonds at the bottom, but now it is a big risk, everyone is thinking about other ways.
The dollar’s appeal to the world hasn’t been so strong before, and moreover, more and more money is being printed by the United States itself, so that even the money used on a daily basis is devalued.
Inflation, the inability to buy imports, the high cost of lending, the burden of debt is sinking, and the U.S. economy is no longer able to "speak out" as before.
On the other hand, China has a set of the world's most complete supply chain, engaging in production, from basic raw materials to high-tech manufacturing, all kinds of products rely on China's stable exports to support the global market.
Take rare earths as an example. The key raw materials are in the hands of China. American companies do not have Chinese exports, and many products will be out of stock immediately, and the same is true for high-end chips.
In the past, the United States also wanted to find alternatives in other countries, but technology and efficiency can not keep up, this gap is not a year or two can be filled, while China is still doing supply chain upgrading, three out of five to add innovation, so that its position is increasingly "irreplaceable".
Trade friction made the situation more tense, the United States added a tariff, had wanted to push China down, the result is, in turn, the life of its own people is harder, import an electrical appliance, buy a clothes, the price has risen a lot.
The research institute has calculated that in recent years, with the increase of tariffs, American families have to spend thousands of dollars more a year, and this money is actually paid by themselves.
Enterprises can not bear the high cost, either increase the price or reduce the employee, the dynamics of the entire market are slowed down.
China has been trying to find ways not to rely entirely on US dollars for transactions. Now China and several big countries are talking about settlement in local currencies, and even promoting cross-border payments in RMB. Even if the US dollar is cut off, the normal flow of goods and resources can be guaranteed.
The digital yuan, the regional economic circle, these new routes are to be able to circumvent the dollar "card neck" and take their life in their own hands.
These old Americans want to return the manufacturing industry and reduce their dependence on China, but the reality is not as smooth as imagined. Whether it is chips or rare earths, it is difficult for the United States to completely get rid of China.
As long as China stabilizes its industrial chain and does not cause chaos, the global market must rely on China's production, which is why many countries have to continue to deal with China.
Now China and the United States have not yet separated the losers and wins, everyone is betting who can not withstand first, but the hard logic of the economy will not change: on the one hand, high-end debt and printed money, on the other hand, the world's urgently needed and difficult to replace real commodities.
Who is more sure, the market will tell the answer realistically. As long as China keeps its supply chain and resources stable in its hands, the United States can only watch and worry about how much money it prints.
Both sides seem to have their own advantages, but once trade is stuck, it is difficult for the United States to buy Chinese things no matter how rich it is, and no matter how many Chinese goods it has, it cannot be easily exchanged for money. The contest behind this is actually more complicated than the book figures. In the final analysis, it is the question of who is harder, entity or credit.
The United States has been relying on the dollar for years to “buy” the world, but recently the pyramid sign has begun to fade.
Previously, other countries producing oil and mining earned money, like to hold the dollar and U.S. bonds at the bottom, but now it is a big risk, everyone is thinking about other ways.
The dollar’s appeal to the world hasn’t been so strong before, and moreover, more and more money is being printed by the United States itself, so that even the money used on a daily basis is devalued.
Inflation, the inability to buy imports, the high cost of lending, the burden of debt is sinking, and the U.S. economy is no longer able to "speak out" as before.
On the other hand, China has a set of the world's most complete supply chain, engaging in production, from basic raw materials to high-tech manufacturing, all kinds of products rely on China's stable exports to support the global market.
Take rare earths as an example. The key raw materials are in the hands of China. American companies do not have Chinese exports, and many products will be out of stock immediately, and the same is true for high-end chips.
In the past, the United States also wanted to find alternatives in other countries, but technology and efficiency can not keep up, this gap is not a year or two can be filled, while China is still doing supply chain upgrading, three out of five to add innovation, so that its position is increasingly "irreplaceable".
Trade friction made the situation more tense, the United States added a tariff, had wanted to push China down, the result is, in turn, the life of its own people is harder, import an electrical appliance, buy a clothes, the price has risen a lot.
The research institute has calculated that in recent years, with the increase of tariffs, American families have to spend thousands of dollars more a year, and this money is actually paid by themselves.
Enterprises can not bear the high cost, either increase the price or reduce the employee, the dynamics of the entire market are slowed down.
China has been trying to find ways not to rely entirely on US dollars for transactions. Now China and several big countries are talking about settlement in local currencies, and even promoting cross-border payments in RMB. Even if the US dollar is cut off, the normal flow of goods and resources can be guaranteed.
The digital yuan, the regional economic circle, these new routes are to be able to circumvent the dollar "card neck" and take their life in their own hands.
These old Americans want to return the manufacturing industry and reduce their dependence on China, but the reality is not as smooth as imagined. Whether it is chips or rare earths, it is difficult for the United States to completely get rid of China.
As long as China stabilizes its industrial chain and does not cause chaos, the global market must rely on China's production, which is why many countries have to continue to deal with China.
Now China and the United States have not yet separated the losers and wins, everyone is betting who can not withstand first, but the hard logic of the economy will not change: on the one hand, high-end debt and printed money, on the other hand, the world's urgently needed and difficult to replace real commodities.
Who is more sure, the market will tell the answer realistically. As long as China keeps its supply chain and resources stable in its hands, the United States can only watch and worry about how much money it prints.