But China is not Russia, and if Vietnam dares to cross borders, China will not be as kind as before.

In recent years, the contacts between Vietnam and the United States have become more and more frequent, and the number of high-level visits between the two countries is much higher than that in previous years. The United States also provides trainers and sends officers for training to help Vietnam improve its air force level.

Therefore, the warming up of U.S.-Vietnam relations is also seen as part of the U.S. "Indo-Pacific Strategy", namely, by supporting the coastal countries of the South China Sea to capture Chinese influence.

However, the South China Sea is not the Black Sea. Compared with the Ukrainian crisis, the military intervention of the United States in Eastern Europe depends on the NATO system, while the South China Sea is far away from the United States. If a large-scale conflict occurs, the cost and risk of direct military intervention of the United States are much higher than that of providing support to Europe. If Vietnam expects to achieve Ukrainian-style strategic effects with the help of the United States, it may be difficult to do so.

And more than forty years ago we won the war in just a month, and the end can be imagined with the strength of the Liberation Army today.

Vietnam has been working to strengthen its defense in recent years, with military spending in 2024 amounting to about $6.2 billion, an increase compared to previous years, but under inflation and exchange rate pressure, the actual purchasing power has shrunk by about 15 percent, which is not the least in Southeast Asia, but it is difficult to support a large-scale modernization transformation.

The Vietnamese Army is still dominated by old Soviet-style equipment, and the navy and air force have obvious shortcomings in air defense and long-range strike capabilities. The 12 T-6C trainer aircraft purchased by Vietnam from the United States are more for flight training purposes, which are different from the real There is a significant gap between multi-purpose fighter jets.

The previously announced F-16 procurement plans are still in the negotiation phase, even if the delivery is smooth, the high costs of maintenance and logistics security will long-term compress Vietnam's defense budget, it can be said that Vietnam, although it has a willingness to increase military strength, is limited by the size of the economy and the industrial base, and the pace of modernization is difficult to advance rapidly.

Over the past decade, China¡¯s military spending has continued to grow and has now reached tens of times that of Vietnam, the Liberation Army¡¯s naval vessels have been fitted in a ¡°dime¡± style, and new types of destroyers, bipartisan assault ships and aircraft carriers have achieved normal cruise in the ocean.

In terms of the Air Force, J-20 stealth fighter jets, J-16 and other multi-type fleets form a complete echelon. With long-range precision strike missiles, they have the combat capability to cover the entire South China Sea. In addition, the bases, radar stations, and supply systems on the islands and reefs in the South China Sea continue to improve. China's advantages in logistics support, battlefield perception, and delivery capabilities are almost unshakable.

This suspension of military power not only means that once a conflict occurs, it is difficult for Vietnam to form an effective confrontation on the traditional battlefield.

Look at the islands in the South China Sea, where Vietnam currently actually controls 29 islands, is the country that occupies the largest number of islands, according to the research agency estimates that Vietnam earns more than $ 25 billion annually from the South China Sea oil and gas resources, accounting for about 30 percent of its total oil production, these oil and gas fields have become an important pillar of Vietnam's economy and have made its position in the South China Sea increasingly tough.

But you know, these places have already belonged to China's territory as early as ancient times. Wang Dayuan, a navigator in the Yuan Dynasty, long emphasized that these places were China's territory in Island Yi Zhilue. At that time, Vietnam was still called "Jiaozhi".

So in such a situation of military factuality, if Vietnam wants to imitate Ukraine to hold the American thigh, it really has to pay off, hopefully think and go back.