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Ukrainian President Zelensky said in a speech last night that Ukraine would export some types of weapons to other countries, helping to fill the budget deficit, while also increasing the production of front-line drones.
Zelensky said, "I presided over a meeting of the High Command today, and the core topic was the production of our weapons. The meeting clarified the specific scale of production-including what our military needs before the end of this year and next year, and what we need in our warehouses for defense. To maintain sufficient combat power."
The embarrassment of having guns but no food
The cruel demands of the war, on the other hand, gave rise to the surprising resilience of the Ukrainian military-industrial system. Since the war began, Ukraine's weapons production has surged 35 times. Today, nearly 60% of the equipment used by the Ukrainian armed forces is "domestically produced."
Even U.S. President’s special envoy, Kellogg, had to admit that Ukraine’s drone technology has even surpassed the U.S. in some ways.
On the other side of the coin, however, is the embarrassment of overcapacity. The number of some naval drones and anti-tank weapons they produce has exceeded the actual needs of frontline troops, and it has also crushed the already tight finances.Simply put, it is built, but it can't be used up by itself, and it can't afford it.
On the other hand, the factory faces the risk of “crashing” due to a lack of money, and a member of parliament named Galina Yanchenko has long been concerned about whether weapons can be exported moderately and let the industry survive.
The machines and drawings are there, but without the start-up capital, the production line is just a pile of scrap metal.This micro-dilemma is precisely the epitome of Ukraine's macro-fiscal disaster. Zelensky spread out an annual "war bill" of up to US $120 billion and promised that Ukraine would bear half of it, which is 60 billion. This astronomical figure forced them to find new financial resources.
Scrap metal sent by allies
Expecting external aid? The road seems to be narrowing too. The Western military aid, which had once been bestowed on high hopes, gave the reality a loud earlight. Ukrainian MP Federico even used the word “waste metals” to describe a portion of the aid materials they received, and the anger and disappointment in the speech was filled with words.
These so-called aid, the problem of five flower eight doors. Some are models of old antiques, the system is not compatible at all. Some have a fault when shipping, and Ukraine has to pay for repairs.
The quality of aid is worrisome, and the amount is more than the water cup wage. The Ukrainian side has listed a “priority list” of key weapons needed, such as “Patriots” and “Hamas”, hoping the allies can help raise $60 billion in aid.What’s the result? spent half a day and raised only $200 billion to the district.It feels like trying to use a glass of water to pour out the fire in the desert.
After the illusion of aid broke down, Ukraine was forced to turn its eyes from passive acceptance, to active creation. They started to push for the construction of the “Defense City” hub, which has attracted 25 global enterprises to participate in an attempt to create a more reliable and autonomous source of weapons.
It is in this context that the weapons export plan, which may have been tacitly discussed at the cabinet level as early as May, has been formally pushed to the table of the national strategy.
Put all the wealth on the gambling table
This “controllable export” plan is undoubtedly a big bet for Ukraine to use its own industrial capacity as a geopolitical code.
The possibilities of the plan are clear: The real gold and silver exchanged by exports, back and forth to invest in domestic production, especially to increase the production of drones that are urgently needed on the frontline, forming a closed circle of "warfare".
Zelensky also designed a diplomatic combination for this purpose. He plans to build three platforms for the United States, its European allies, and other countries around the world that support Ukraine.In particular, he stressed that cooperation should be based on “mutual assistance”, and that Ukraine will not “do charity” and not help countries that are indifferent to themselves.
But the risks at the gambling table are equally huge and deadly. The first is the conundrum of internal balance. The plan clearly stipulates that ensuring the supply of frontline combat brigades is the highest priority. But when a large overseas order and the urgent needs of the front line are in front of us at the same time, how to choose? This is a cruel calculation that uses soldiers' lives as weights.
Secondly, it is the reality of external competition. When When Ukraine itself depreciates some of the Western sophisticated weapons to “waste metals,” are their own weapons really competitive enough in the international market to fill those billions of dollars?That in itself is a huge question mark.
Finally, and most dangerously, it is the challenge of safety control. How to ensure that these deadly weapons, under the banner of "controllable", do not end up in the hands of Russia or terrorists? Once this control mechanism fails, the consequences will be unimaginable.
conclusion
Zelensky’s gameplay is similar to the one he used to simplify the battle story into “Plan A (end of war)” and “Plan B (give money to continue playing”).
He put all possibilities and difficulties on the table, forcing everyone to re-evaluate Ukraine’s value and situation.
The final outcome of this gamble will not only determine Ukraine's national destiny, but also profoundly affect the shape of future wars and the pattern of the international arms market.