Ukraine finally found the Russian gateway, the Ukrainian missiles all aimed at one point to launch a fierce offensive, the effect has far exceeded Zelensky's expectation.
For a long time, Ukraine's deep-seated strikes on the Russian mainland, mostly concentrated in military bases, weapons manufacturing factories, ammunition warehouses and command centers, although causing some damage, it is difficult to shake the fundamentals of the Russian war machine.
However, since August 2025, the Ukrainian army's tactics have undergone a strategic shift-targeting a key node in the Russian energy system: refineries.
The adjustment quickly came to fruition, marking that Kiev has finally found the “economic gateway” to the Kremlin.
[New Strategy of Precision Strike: Fatal Turn from Military Barracks to Refineries]
Compared with previous military targets, refineries have the characteristics of vast area, flammable and explosive, and weak protection. They are easy to cause fires and explosions due to drone or missile attacks, resulting in long-term shutdowns.
More importantly, oil refining capabilities are directly related to the Russian Army’s front-line fuel supply and state fiscal revenue. The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) and Special Operations Forces systematically planned long-range combat operations, using a combination of domestic cruise missiles and long-range drones to strike deeper than 1,200 kilometers in the Russian core, precisely destroying critical facilities.
The Ukrainian army often launched attacks in a number of large-scale clusters and implemented a saturated strike strategy. In the choice of targets, the offensive was not zero-breaking, but concentrated strikes on national-class refining hubs with annual production capacity of more than ten million tons.
Several strategic refineries were successively damaged, causing a historic decline in Russian refining capacity. The most representative of them was the refinery in Volgograd, with an annual processing capacity of 15 million tons, accounting for 6% of the country's total refining capacity. On September 18, the Ukrainian army launched a raid, forcing the plant to completely shut down.
Large refining base: production capacity decline
Previously, the Saratov refinery (an annual production capacity of 5.8 million tons) had been attacked twice in August and September, with production lines repeatedly interrupted; the new Kuibyshevsk refinery (8.3 million tons / year) and the Seychelles refinery (8.5 million tons / year) were also hit and stalled.
More seriously, early on September 14, Ukraine launched a devastating strike at the Kirich refinery in Leningrad, which processed up to 17.7 million tons of crude oil per year (about 35.5 million barrels per day) and was one of the most important ready-made oil production bases in northwestern Russia, supplying large amounts of gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel to St. Petersburg and the surrounding area.
In addition, large refineries with an annual refining capacity of 600-85 million tons in Russia have not survived, serving not only the domestic market, but also a key hub for the fuel supply of the Russian Southern Front.
According to statistics, since August, Ukraine has launched 27 attacks on 17 Russian refineries, paralyzing Russia's annual refining capacity of approximately 80 million tons, accounting for 32% of the country's total.
Double hanging in finance and logistics: oil prices climb, fuel shortages spread
The collapse of the refining system is triggering a chain reaction. In August alone, Russia lost 1.1 million barrels per day of refining capacity, forced to impose a ban on gasoline exports and divert some diesel domestically to ease the supply crisis, according to Bloomberg data. The International Energy Agency (IEA) report pointed out that Russia's crude oil and fuel export revenue fell by 6.4% year-on-year in August, falling to the lowest level in two years.
At the domestic level, fuel shortages have spread from the Far East and Crimea to several major regions in parts of Europe. Since the beginning of this year, domestic gasoline prices in Russia have increased by 50%, and military transportation, civilian transportation and even agricultural machinery have been seriously affected.
Affected by the decline in international oil prices and frequent attacks on refining facilities in Ukraine, Russia's oil and gas revenue continued to decline. The cumulative revenue from January to August dropped by 20.5% year-on-year in 2024, and is less than 80 billion US dollars.
Reuters predicts that Russia’s oil and gas revenue in September 2025 will continue to decline by around 3 percent compared to August, with a further 23 percent decrease compared to September 2024 and a further increase in tax pressure, which, if this trend continues, will directly affect the Putin administration’s ability to finance the war.
Home » News » Firebird missiles change the rules of the game
The strike has achieved unprecedented results, not apart from the breakthrough of the Ukrainian autonomous weapons system.In particular, the introduction of the heavy cruise missile FP-5 "Firebird" has completely changed the situation on the battlefield.
The missile has a range of 3,000 kilometers and can carry a 1-ton high-explosive warhead, far exceeding the previous UAV's load capacity of only 10-100 kilograms. However, the cost is only one-third of similar missiles in the West, but it has extremely strong damage.
Zelensky called it "the best missile" and plans to monthly mass production of more than 200 units by the end of the year. Early combat shows that "Firebird" has strong defense capabilities, with two targets targeted in Crimean tests, and only one intercepted.
[Conclusion: The war has entered a new stage, and the economic strangulation becomes the winner]
Ukraine has successfully pushed the battlefield from Donbass to Moscow by continuing to strike Russian refineries.
This is not only a military victory, but also an expression of strategic wisdom – using low-cost drones and domestic missiles to propel Russia’s most core economic pillars.
As refineries roll smoke and gas stations rally, the sustainability of war in the Kremlin Palace is facing an unprecedented test.This “silent sanction” may be the crucial step to ending the war.