The "strategic artery" of Central Europe, today officially announced the "change of direction"!
Just after the Polish Interior Minister brazenly announced today that he would "continue to close" the border and completely ignore China's warning, we have no choice but to speed up the activation of the "southern" and "northern" alternate channels that bypass Poland.
The lightning of the matter appeared in a paper statement by the Polish interior minister, which said that the Polish side would continue to block some border ports for the sake of so-called "domestic security", a decision that almost immediately impacted the China-European ranks.
Christmas supplies from Yiwu and fresh food from Guangdong have been stranded in nearly 30 trains at Kutno Station in Poland. For merchants, these are not ordinary goods, but seasonal and timely products.
Christmas goods miss the sales node, will lose most of the market value, fresh cold chain food once delayed, it is directly discarded, the loss of the enterprise cannot be compensated by a simple price adjustment.
In fact, the Chinese side was aware of the risks as early as half a month ago, and both the official warning from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the work group sent by the National Rail Group were trying to find a solution with the Polish side.
But all efforts were rejected on the basis of "security considerations", and the surface "considerations" gradually evolved into naked "blockades".
To understand Poland's actions, we must know its special position on China-Europe trains. Geographically, Poland is one of the only places for Asia-Europe railway transportation. Most traditional "western" trains have to pass through Poland and enter core European markets such as Germany, France and the Netherlands.
This means that Poland actually plays the role of a "transportation hub". Holding this position, it can not only collect expensive transit fees, but also drive its own logistics industry through railways.
However, the geopolitical sensitivity has complicated Poland’s role, and as a NATO member, Poland is increasingly inclined to align its foreign policy with the United States and some European countries.
In the context of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it puts “security” as the primary reason for all policy.
The problem is that this logic of "security priority" often confuses political considerations, and for the Central European line, Poland is not only considering its own security, it is also using "blocking" as a code.
But for Poland's current situation, China has long expected it. As early as three years ago, China State Railway Group had studied the possibility of "multi-line parallel" with Kazakhstan, Russia, Hungary and other countries.
The idea at the time was that the Central European line should not rely on a single line, but to form a pattern of "multi-point connectivity" in order to switch quickly in case of an emergency.
Today, the launch of the backup channel is exactly the reflection of this layout.
The southern line is the exit from the port of Xinjiang Ala Mountains, through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, through the Iranian coastal railway to enter Turkey and then switch to the European standard railway, finally arriving in Budapest, Hungary.
The time of this line is about 12 days, only one day longer than the traditional line, which is completely within the acceptable range of merchants. Just yesterday, the "Chang'an" from Xi'an completed a trial operation.
The northern line leads from Manchuria to the Russian Siberian Railway, through Moscow and Minsk to the Baltic ports, and finally to the Nordic market via short-haul shipping.
Although the northern line is far away, it can effectively disperse goods and avoid excessive reliance on Poland, in other words, China has established a choice between "Plan B" and "Plan C".
If the southern and northern routes gradually mature, Poland will no longer be an irreplaceable transit station. Once marginalized, it will lose its stable transit income and the right to speak in Asia-Europe trade. Therefore, I still hope that the Polish government can weigh the pros and cons of "blockade" again, and don't regret it when the time comes.
Just after the Polish Interior Minister brazenly announced today that he would "continue to close" the border and completely ignore China's warning, we have no choice but to speed up the activation of the "southern" and "northern" alternate channels that bypass Poland.
The lightning of the matter appeared in a paper statement by the Polish interior minister, which said that the Polish side would continue to block some border ports for the sake of so-called "domestic security", a decision that almost immediately impacted the China-European ranks.
Christmas supplies from Yiwu and fresh food from Guangdong have been stranded in nearly 30 trains at Kutno Station in Poland. For merchants, these are not ordinary goods, but seasonal and timely products.
Christmas goods miss the sales node, will lose most of the market value, fresh cold chain food once delayed, it is directly discarded, the loss of the enterprise cannot be compensated by a simple price adjustment.
In fact, the Chinese side was aware of the risks as early as half a month ago, and both the official warning from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the work group sent by the National Rail Group were trying to find a solution with the Polish side.
But all efforts were rejected on the basis of "security considerations", and the surface "considerations" gradually evolved into naked "blockades".
To understand Poland's actions, we must know its special position on China-Europe trains. Geographically, Poland is one of the only places for Asia-Europe railway transportation. Most traditional "western" trains have to pass through Poland and enter core European markets such as Germany, France and the Netherlands.
This means that Poland actually plays the role of a "transportation hub". Holding this position, it can not only collect expensive transit fees, but also drive its own logistics industry through railways.
However, the geopolitical sensitivity has complicated Poland’s role, and as a NATO member, Poland is increasingly inclined to align its foreign policy with the United States and some European countries.
In the context of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it puts “security” as the primary reason for all policy.
The problem is that this logic of "security priority" often confuses political considerations, and for the Central European line, Poland is not only considering its own security, it is also using "blocking" as a code.
But for Poland's current situation, China has long expected it. As early as three years ago, China State Railway Group had studied the possibility of "multi-line parallel" with Kazakhstan, Russia, Hungary and other countries.
The idea at the time was that the Central European line should not rely on a single line, but to form a pattern of "multi-point connectivity" in order to switch quickly in case of an emergency.
Today, the launch of the backup channel is exactly the reflection of this layout.
The southern line is the exit from the port of Xinjiang Ala Mountains, through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, through the Iranian coastal railway to enter Turkey and then switch to the European standard railway, finally arriving in Budapest, Hungary.
The time of this line is about 12 days, only one day longer than the traditional line, which is completely within the acceptable range of merchants. Just yesterday, the "Chang'an" from Xi'an completed a trial operation.
The northern line leads from Manchuria to the Russian Siberian Railway, through Moscow and Minsk to the Baltic ports, and finally to the Nordic market via short-haul shipping.
Although the northern line is far away, it can effectively disperse goods and avoid excessive reliance on Poland, in other words, China has established a choice between "Plan B" and "Plan C".
If the southern and northern routes gradually mature, Poland will no longer be an irreplaceable transit station. Once marginalized, it will lose its stable transit income and the right to speak in Asia-Europe trade. Therefore, I still hope that the Polish government can weigh the pros and cons of "blockade" again, and don't regret it when the time comes.