Trump felt a bit angry.
On September 20, he publicly stated on social media: "If Afghanistan doesn't return Bagram Air Base to its builder, the United States, bad things will happen!!!"
This is already a naked threat.
Two days ago, Trump, who was visiting Britain, suddenly told reportersA “small emergency news” — the U.S. government is preparing to take back the Bagram Air Base, one of the reasons “as you know, it’s only an hour’s flight from China’s nuclear weapons site.”
What absurd reason is this?
In international politics, emotional speech, sometimes individual, sometimes reflects deeper levels of strategic anxiety and power imbalance.
Afghanistan is now under the control of the Taliban.
The Taliban and the United States have fought for 20 years.
As the country’s largest military base, a symbol of foreign aggression, the U.S. says to come back and take it, is a public insult to Afghanistan and the Taliban.
So, we see, Afghan officials have made a clear statement, in one word: No, no!
"Even if the U.S. recognizes the Taliban government and promises to fully rebuild Afghanistan, we won't cede an inch of land in exchange for their military presence."
“Not one inch of our land will be given to the Americans, let alone the air base, and if necessary, we will be willing to fight for another 20 years.”
Isn’t that a Trump face?
Therefore, Trump went angry and threatened that if Afghanistan didn't hand over Bagram Air Force Base, "bad things would happen".
Even if there is only one word, how many people can not laugh.
After all, when did the Bagram air base in Afghanistan belong to the United States?
The original builder, if I am not mistaken, was the Soviet Union.
In any case, the United States does not recognize the Taliban government, and will it invade Afghanistan again?
Speaking of the Bagram Air Force Base, I have a little different feelings.
In 2001, the United States launched the war in Afghanistan and the Taliban was overthrown. When we arrived in Afghanistan for an interview that year, our first stop was this base.
We passed from Pakistan because the road was dangerous, and we later learned that a group of Afghan elders intended to follow, later bombed by the U.S. military, many of whom were killed.
At the time, the airport in Kabul was also bombed, and there was no way to take off the plane.So, the small aircraft we took on the United Nations, landed at the US Air Force base in Bagram.
When I heard the explosion of the plane, I was terrified.
This is Afghanistan during the war.
For us who have never experienced war, many things need to be adapted in fear.
For example, a colleague of mine wanted to go for a walk in the grass in an urgent need of urination, but was stopped urgently. Because in Bagram, all the grass around it could be a minefield.
From Bagram to the city of Kabul, everywhere were Soviet tanks, cannon debris, road debris, an unexpected mine; the surrounding villages, all turned into ruins, no smoke, I said in the article at the time, there was a kind of "thousand miles no chicken sound" pale feeling.
This is all topical.
Throughout the Afghan war, Bagram became the largest military base and command center of the US military. In fact, it became a state within a state in Afghanistan and a concession of the United States.
On the geopolitical chessboard, military bases have never been merely concrete and runways, but also the historical footprint and symbol of power of major powers.
But in the end, the United States was driven away by the Taliban. Now Trump is whimsical to get bagram back, and there is always a very abrupt and grotesque feeling.
Think with normal thinking.
Several possibilities.
The first possibility is that the Taliban initially surrendered the Bagram air base.
What kind of conditions are that, so that the Taliban will voluntarily hand it over?
Don't forget, for Afghanistan, Bagram is a symbol of foreign invasion, and it will threaten the security of Kabul. The United States is the enemy country of the Taliban that has been fighting for 20 years.
How big the Taliban would allow U.S. troops to be stationed near their capital.
The second possibility is that the Taliban are forced to hand over Bagram Air Base.
Taliban surrender to Baghdad air base?
It’s also completely impossible to say that if feared, the Taliban would not have fought the United States for 20 years.
Just because Trump is stronger than Biden, the Taliban confessed?
Taliban or Taliban?
The third possibility, the U.S. invasion, would eventually take back the Bagram air base.
If this is true, it is estimated that the United States would have to mobilize at least 10,000 troops, which would be another invasion of Afghanistan.
War will surely have a lot of deadly wounds, will Trump?
War is never a simple calculation of force, but a long test of the mind of the people.
If it's an invasion, it's impossible for the Taliban to fail to resist. On the premise that the Taliban cannot be overthrown, if we only capture Bagram Air Force Base, wouldn't that leave a sitting target in Afghanistan?
So, I really don't quite understand Trump's real intention.
Maybe it's just verbal bravado indeed. You see, what Biden lost in embarrassment back then, I easily want it back.
Even if I didn’t come back, I at least threatened publicly.
In modern politics, performance is sometimes more important than substance, and the noisy public opinion field often covers up the essence of the problem.
It is more likely that Xiang Zhuang's sword dance is aimed at Peigong, that is, aiming at China. Don't forget, Trump has repeatedly declared that China has captured Bagram Air Force Base.
Is American intelligence this?
No wonder Pompeo was smug and said, "I used to be the director of the CIA. We lie, we cheat, we steal, and we have a course dedicated to teaching this. This is the glory of America's continuous exploration and progress."
Finally what do you think?
Let's make three superficial points.
First, at least, Trump’s headline goal has been achieved.
Or, a more powerful propaganda goal than Biden has been achieved.
But the Taliban is probably a little confused. President of the United States, President of the United States, what kind of medicine are you selling in your gourd?
One thing we can be sure of is that the Taliban won’t beat Trump.
Trump sends a tweet and you can get a headline. Taliban, you have the chance to get Trump to spit the traffic.
Second, I have to say that this has nothing to do with China.
To be honest, this is all about China, China is also laughable, and it is with this posture that it is shot.
But I still have to respond.
I saw that the Foreign Ministry spokesman replied:The Chinese side respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Afghanistan, and the future of Afghanistan should be in the hands of the Afghan people.The tension and confrontation in the region are not in the heart, and we hope that all parties will play a constructive role for regional peace and stability.
Will the United States play a constructive role in Afghanistan?
You think it is possible? typical chicken with duck talk.
In the end, the play is still behind.
I see the Taliban reminding the United States that you have to have the spirit of treaty.
Why?
Because according to the Doha agreement reached by the Taliban and the United States that year, the United States promised that "it will not use or threaten to use force against Afghanistan's territorial integrity or political independence, nor will it interfere in its internal affairs."
If it weren't for this agreement, the Taliban wouldn't have stopped their offensive and allowed the Americans to evacuate safely.
Now the U.S. has withdrawn and begins to break the agreement, threatening to seize the Bagram base.
America, what is your contract spirit?
Of course, Afghans are not afraid either. At that time, hundreds of thousands of American troops were dispatched, and they fought for 20 years without winning the war in Afghanistan; Now, can Trump take bagram Air Force Base by all kinds of threats?
Don't forget, during the interview in Kabul that year,Afghans are very proud of the fact that Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires-the British Empire then, the Soviet Union later, and now the United States have all failed in Afghanistan and suffered humiliating and major setbacks.
If Trump doesn't believe it, give it a try.