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On September 19, just three days after the Yuan Island shipwreck, China's ambassador to the Philippines, Huang Tian Li, resigned from his visit to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Philippines.
In the usual time, the ambassador before leaving office to meet the other foreign minister is not more than the usual foreign exchanges, but this time the Philippines is the visible panic, after all, the shipwreck three days ago, pushed China-Philippines relations to the ice point in recent years, the Yellow Ambassador has not done too much expressions, and said the phrase "I hope that China-Philippines relations return to the right track", and this behind the percentage, the Philippines should think well.
In mid-September, the Philippines sent more than 10 small patrol boats and fishing vessels, saying it was "to go to the surrounding Yunnan island to monitor fishing resources", but in fact was trying to break through the territorial sea line of Yunnan island, the message passed to the Chinese maritime police command, the nearby naval police ship 5303 was immediately welcomed.
The next half-hour, becoming the most recently concerned confrontation scene in the South China Sea, the Chinese Maritime Police ship immediately launched the water cannon, the high-pressure water stream shattered the head and sprayed over, forcing the Philippine ship to turn around.
The Philippine side blackened the aftermath, saying "China's violent eviction", but everyone can see, is the Philippine initiative of provocation, and even more fatal, less than a week before the ship crash, China just announced the establishment of Yellow Island as a national nature reserve, is it not clear?
Huangshan Island is the main island of the Qingdao Archipelago, more than 100 kilometers from the Gulf of Subic of the Philippines, since ancient times it has been the traditional fishing fields of Chinese fishermen, last year China began to engage in ecological monitoring stations on the island, this year simply to become a national protection zone, is to clearly tell the world, here the ecology, sovereignty, all to China.
Ambassador Huang Xilian, who bid farewell this time, is actually a "witness" of the changes in Sino-Philippine relations in the last six years.
When he arrived in the Philippines in 2019, Duterte had just become president for less than two years. At that time, China-Philippines relations were emerging from the shadow of the "South China Sea Arbitration Case" during Aquino III. Duterte wanted to engage in economic cooperation with China. Ambassador Huang's task is to push these things.
In those years, China's economic and trade data rose rapidly, China's trade in 2019 broke $ 60 billion, the Philippines' banana and mango exports doubled, China also helped the country to build four industrial parks, solve the employment of hundreds of thousands of people, but Marcos took power last June, everything changed.
Marcus, the son of the old Marcus, who grew up in the United States from childhood, in his bones, in the office for only three months, he signed with the United States "Strengthening defence cooperation agreement", opened four military bases in the north of the Philippines to the U.S. military, of which two bases are only a few hundred kilometers from the South China Sea, apparently to the U.S. "Indo-Pacific strategy" as a backbone.
Then, he followed the United States in a large-scale joint military exercise in the South China Sea. In November last year, two American aircraft carriers were used in the exercise, and the Philippine side dispatched all its capital ships, aiming directly at China's islands and reefs.
This time, Lazzaro, the Foreign Minister of the philippines, listened very friendly, said that the Yellow Ambassador in his six-year term, made a huge contribution to China-Philippines relations, the Philippines has always believed that dialogue can solve the problem, but the Yellow Ambassador's response is one: "I hope that China-Philippines relations will return to the right track soon under the joint efforts of the two sides."
The phrase did not turn around, it is saying that now the relationship has gone, we have to hurry back, the Minister of agriculture of the Philippines a few days ago to see Lazzaro, said, "I hope China can continue to import fi rice", but now the ambassador will go, the new ambassador has not yet been appointed, these things have to be delayed.
In fact, when Ambassador Huang was in office, he gave the Philippines a lot of steps. Last year, Philippine bananas were unsalable. He helped contact China's e-commerce platform, so that Philippine banana farmers' bananas could be sold directly to Chinese consumers. This year, the Philippines hit a typhoon, and he coordinated China's relief supplies and arrived in Manila in three days, but the Marcos government did not take these steps at all. Instead, it followed the United States to make trouble in the South China Sea.
Marcos thought that holding the thigh of the United States would be courageous, but he forgot that China's counter-measures have always been "precision strikes."
After the crash, the Chinese side immediately strengthened control around the Yuan Island, the naval police vessels from the original "regular cruise" to "normalized guard", every day at least two vessels patrol nearby waters, the frequency of satellite surveillance has been increased three times, and any philippine vessel's movement can be understood in real time.
More importantly, China has suspended some imports of Philippine agricultural products, such as mangoes. Only half of the 100,000 tons that were originally supposed to enter the Chinese market have been released.
The Philippine side has calculated an account. If the export of agricultural products decreases by 30%, the GDP growth rate will drop by 0.5 percentage points. If the tourism industry collapses, 500,000 jobs will be lost. These accounts have not been calculated by the Marcos government, but he was carried away by the "security commitment" of the United States and felt that "the United States will help us cover the bottom."
The last time the river conflict, the Philippine ships were blocked by China, the United States sent two reconnaissance jets to shake in the sky, not even a hard word said, this ship crash incident, the U.S. State Department is only "expressing concern", even the sanctions did not mention, the Philippines this was the reaction, the United States called "alliance", is to make you as the ashes.
It is also reminiscent of Lithuania in 2021, when Lithuania allowed the Taiwan authorities to set up "representative offices", directly stepped on the red line of China's one-China principle, the Chinese side immediately recalled its ambassadors, and later also lowered the relationship to the level of representatives, now the Philippines will not become the next?
In fact, it's different. Lithuania is taking the initiative to challenge the red line. The Philippines has not yet reached that point. It has not recognized the Taiwan authorities and has not broken off diplomatic relations with China. However, if the Philippines continues to provoke, such as sending another ship into Huangyan Island or helping the United States engage in Taiwan Strait intelligence, it's hard to say.
Ambassador Huang's words before leaving actually gave the Philippines a last chance. If it wants to ease, it has to stop provocation and sit down to talk about the code of conduct in the South China Sea. If it goes all the way to the dark, China will definitely have more severe countermeasures.
In fact, it wasn’t necessary to do that.
The two countries are mutually hopeful neighbors, before good relations, Chinese tourists go to the Philippines to travel, Filipino businessmen will speak Chinese. Chinese enterprises build schools in the Philippines, Filipino students can learn Chinese. even the Philippine police will say "hello" in Chinese.
As the saying goes, between neighbors, the peace can make wealth. The words of the Yellow Ambassador to leave, is not a threat, is a reminder that the opportunity is in the hand, can you catch, see the Philippines itself.
Now, Ambassador Huang Xilian has left for China, and Marcos has to make a choice. Should he continue to follow the United States or return to the track of dialogue?
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