Less than two weeks from the start of the new fiscal year on October 1, the U.S. federal government's "money bag" is once again facing a fat crisis.
This time, Trump's attitude, who has just re-entered the White House, is clear that if he doesn't get enough votes, the government shutdown will close, the voice will just fall, the mountain of Congress will fall into chaos, and the Republican and Democratic battle will escalate to a degree of white heat.
Even more surprising is the fact that there are also disagreements within the Republican party that controls the two houses of the House of Representatives, and some MPs voted against the proposal within the party, what kind of political calculation is hidden behind this seemingly routine budget dispute?
The clouds overwhelmed Washington again.
On September 18, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a procedural resolution by a vote of 216 to 210, paving the way for the upcoming vote on the provisional appropriations bill.
The bill is scheduled to provide funding to federal agencies until November 21, giving the two houses of Congress an additional time to agree on a full allocation scheme for the fiscal year 2026.
However, the seemingly simple "extension" bill has blown up the Washington political circle, with the Republicans having a 53-on-47 seat advantage in the Senate, but requiring 60 votes before October 1 to pass the provisional allocation bill, which means that at least seven Democrats are needed.
Here's the problem. Democrats don't buy the proposal proposed by the Republican Party, thinking it is a "Republican bill with partisan color".
Republicans insist that their proposals will streamline the government and boost economic growth, while Democrats are hindered by “making barriers.”
In the face of this impasse, Trump has demonstrated consistent hard work and has publicly stated that it is not the Republican’s fault if a halt occurs.
We passed a bill that won incredible Republican votes... even if there was a shutdown, the Democrats admitted it was their fault.
This statement is not groundless. Looking back on history, the shutdown of the U.S. government is nothing new. Since the U.S. Congress officially implemented the budget process in 1976, the U.S. federal government has experienced as many as 21 "shutdowns". The most striking one is the 35-day shutdown record set by Trump during his first term.
From December 22, 2018 to January 25, 2019, the U.S. government fell into the longest halt in history due to a dispute over funding for the construction of the Mexican border wall.
During this period, nine federal executive departments were partially or entirely shut down, about a quarter of government activities and 800,000 government employees were affected, and the U.S. economy lost $3 billion.
Democratic Party Tactics
In the face of the Republican offensive, the Democratic Party didn't sit still. Late Wednesday, Democrats unveiled their own version of the bill to keep the government running until Oct. 31.
The bill will also restore funding for the Medicaid program for low-income Americans (which has been cancelled by Trump’s tax reform bill) and permanently extend the Affordable Care Act subsidy, which expires at the end of this year.
While this Democratic proposal is almost impossible to become a law, Senate Democratic leader Schumer said it could serve as the basis for two-party negotiations.We have two weeks left. They should sit down and talk to us and maybe we can reach a good proposal.
Behind this budget war, it actually reflects the deep problems of the American political system. In recent years, the political polarization between the two parties has become increasingly serious, and financial problems have become the main battlefield of party struggle.
For a long time, the two sides have used financial issues as a code for the party's dispute to the purpose of holding back, hindering rivals and seizing profits, leading to the fact that the annual government budget allocations can never be determined before the start of the new fiscal year.
What's even more worrying is that government shutdowns have become the "normal state" of American politics. During the 19 years from 1977 to 1996, the federal government closed 17 times, almost once a year on average. This phenomenon is almost unthinkable in other developed countries.
The economic impact is insignificant.
Although government shutdowns are commonplace in the United States, their economic impact can not be underestimated. Goldman Sachs predicts that the "shutdowns" will cause a small but measurable strain on the economy, with capital shutdowns lasting every week and quarterly economic growth decreasing by about 0.15 percentage points.
For ordinary people, a government shutdown means that millions of federal employees will face unpaid leave and various government services will be affected.While key sectors such as the military, healthcare, postal services will normally continue to operate, the normal order of society as a whole will still be impacted.
Currently, there are less than two weeks left until the Oct. 1 deadline. The two parties in Congress must find a compromise plan within this time window, otherwise the government shutdown will be inevitable.
Judging from the current situation, although the Republican Party controls the Senate and the House of Representatives, its advantage in the House of Representatives is weak, and it also needs the cooperation of the Democratic Party in the Senate to pass the bill. This complex political landscape adds uncertainty to the negotiations.
conclusion
The crisis of the U.S. government shutdown has been staged again, which is not only the inevitable result of the political game between the two parties, but also reflects the structural problems of the U.S. political system. Although the risk of shutdown still exists, historical experience shows that the two sides usually reach a compromise at the last minute in the end.
Whatever the outcome, this political role will provide us with an important window to observe how American politics operate. Today, in the deep development of globalization, American political stability has a significant impact on the world economy. Looking forward to Washington’s politicians to be able to focus on the general situation and resolve the crisis as soon as possible.
The source:
Sina Finance 2025-09-20 Trump predicts that the federal government is "likely" to shut down in October