How can a country fall from 43 million people to the brink of survival in just a few years?
The tragedy of Ukraine is not merely the cruelty of the war, it is a deadline woven together by the demographic collapse, the loss of economic sovereignty, and the strategic misjudgment of the dismantling of the "nuclear shield" by their own hands.
When the family is hollowed out and the future is pawned, How much hope can the people of this land still have?
People are gone and the country is empty.
The most thorny problem in Ukraine right now is not the fighting on the front line, but the rapid decline of the domestic population. Three years ago, the country had a population of about 43 million, which is the largest country in Europe.
But in just a few years, now there are only about 29 million permanent residents in the country, which has decreased by 10 million. The United Nations predicts that by 2100 the number of Ukrainians could be reduced to 15.3 million.
The main reason for the decline in the population in Ukraine is the exodus, according to UN data, 6.7 million people have crossed the border to live in other countries. For them, the most important thing is security and stability.
And the group that left was mostly young and prosperous, they should have been the main force of the country's labor force, It's construction workers, programmers, business owners and parents, but when these people are absent, society loses its core productivity.
At present, the proportion of the working-age population in Ukraine is only about 34%. This is already a red flag, and the population structure staying in China is equally worrying. The aging is accelerating and the fertility rate is declining.
The data for 2024 show that the number of deaths is three times the number of newborns, the fertility rate is less than 1.0, refresh the record low, the elderly population is close to 20%, while young people are underweight. The state has entered the situation of "unprecedented decline", but the society has not yet recovered, but is already downward.
Structurally, among the 29 million permanent residents, there are about 9.5 million workers who can really work normally and support economic development. But many of them rely on government finances and really rely on markets to create wealth, probably just 6 million to 7 million.
In other words, a country with tens of millions of people only rely on the labor of a few million people, which is difficult to last long, and in the coming years, the retirement population may exceed the working population, and the pension system is difficult to follow.
More serious is the post-war reconstruction, experts predict that as soon as the war ends, Ukraine may lack 70% of the workforce, lack of human resources, will not be able to repair cities, rebuild industry, let alone promote economic recovery. Even with external funding and assistance, no one works, and all the plans are hard to land.
The money bag is gone, and the economy collapses by itself
The loss of population in Ukraine today appears to be caused by war, but the roots are still in the economy, and the problem did not arise in these years, but was buried more than thirty years ago.
When the Soviet Union collapsed and Ukraine became independent in 1991, the conditions were not bad. There were already grain-producing areas, There is also heavy industry and manufacturing, which is considered to be the "resource + industry" two countries.
Unfortunately, they took a too radical path at the time, and they pursued the so-called “shock therapy”. One-time liberalization of prices, large-scale privatization, and cutting government spending are theoretically aimed at rapidly transforming the market economy, but the result is the direct collapse of the economic system.
In 1993, Ukraine’s GDP fell by 30 percent in a year, inflation was severe, factories were shut down, prices rose, and almost half of the unemployment was out of work at the highest rate.
The industrial chain originally inherited from the Soviet Union was broken up, and fields such as steel, machinery, and shipbuilding all declined. In the past two decades, Ukraine's economic structure has become increasingly single, mainly relying on the export of agricultural products and raw materials to live.
Because of the scarcity of local jobs, millions of workers left the country between 2000 and 2010, and the first wave of exodus began at that time, until the outbreak of war, these problems were even worse.
Ukraine now relies almost entirely on Western aid to maintain its financial and military spending. But most of this money eventually goes back to western enterprises, especially arms dealers. On the surface, it is aid, but in essence it is an aid cycle.
More importantly, American companies have obtained long-term contracting rights for some of Ukraine's mineral resources. In other words, the country's core wealth lifeline is controlled by others, and the country's space for control is getting smaller and smaller.
Finance depends on others, resources are controlled by others, and the industry chain is broken. It is difficult for such a country to be truly independent. For ordinary people, the biggest problem is that their livelihood is not guaranteed.
Refugees can find jobs abroad and support their families, but once they return home, they face low wages, high risks and no development prospects. A lot of people naturally choose not to come back.
The current situation in Ukraine is far from a war that can be explained clearly. People are getting fewer and fewer, the money is getting tighter and tighter, and they are also holding the guaranteed shelter for people, and these three things are folded together, only to have the situation today.
Today's Ukraine is not just a matter of winning or losing on the battlefield, but a triple crisis caused by population loss, economic dependence, and strategic errors. Even if the war ends, it will take several generations to slowly repair this vicious circle.