Preliminary
September 19thTrump ordered the US military. Caribbean Fire, sinking Venezuelan ships, causing Three people died.。
Meanwhile, the Venezuelan 2.5 million soldiersMassive military exercise, Russian nuclear submarine suddenly tested Supersonic missileThe target distance. by 250 kmout of .
Why did Trump order the fire at this time? What message does Russia want to convey with its missile test?
An international storm caused by 3 lives
that Late Thursday night.The winds in the Caribbean Sea are still mild.
However, when Trump tapped on social media the words "The U.S. military has ordered to open fire," the entire Latin American RegionThe political temperature immediately dropped to the ice.
An official report from the U.S. Southern Command shows that at 2:30 a.m. local time on September 19, the U.S. military was off the coast of Venezuela 180 nmIn international waters, a “suspicious ship” was intercepted.
Trump claimed it was a “drug ship” affiliated with a “terrorist group” that was sailing along the so-called “smuggling channel.” Ministry of Interior of VenezuelaThe response of Diostado Cabello was quite different.
"Who saw the drugs?" Cabello's rhetorical question at the press conference hit the point.
In fact, the U.S. military in this operation, as in previous times, did not find any drugs and could not get any relevant evidence. Three dead, according to the Venezuelan side, just ordinary fishermen.
What is even more disturbing is that this is not the first time that the US military has opened fire on Venezuelan ships without conclusive evidence. Since August this year, similar "anti-drug operations" have caused At least 14 people died.。
International maritime law experts point out that even if drugs are actually discovered, it should be a detention trial in accordance with international law, rather than directly firing and sinking.
The Maduro government's response came quickly and fiercely. Just after Trump posted within 6 hours.Venezuela announced the interruption of all contacts with the US government.
Immediately thereafter, Venezuela launched a code name on the northern island of Augusta. Sovereignty of Caribbean 200"Of large-scale military exercises. More than 2,500 soldiers12 ships and 22 military aircraft were involved.
Particularly remarkable is the Venezuelan Air Force’s deployment of Russian Kh-31 anti-ship missiles. Su-30MK2 fighter aircraftThe exercise was like a loud earlight, pumped on Trump’s face.
How Trump's Election Calculator Confused Latin America
To understand why Trump chose to open fire at this time, you have to look through his set.” one by two.The political calculation.
First of all Election considerations。 With less than a year before the next presidential election, Trump is facing great internal pressure.
The domestic drug epidemic problem in the United States is getting worse and worse, fentanylThe death toll caused by synthetic drugs has hit record highs. People are complaining about this and urgently need a "scapegoat".
By pointing his head to Venezuela, he was able to show the stronger image of the "Iron Arm Against Drugs" and shift the focus of domestic contradictions.
Next is Geopolitical ambitionsVenezuela has the world’s largest detected oil reserves, a “fat meat” that has long haunted the United States.
Since the US supported Venezuela’s opposition leader Guaidó’s failed coup in 2019, Washington has been looking for new means of pressure. War on drugs.“It was just an excuse for the crown.
However, Trump's wishful thinking was loud, but reality gave him a loud slap in the face. Experts from American think tanks believe that this approach is not only legally untenable, but also strategically Not to pay.。
The irony of history is that the more the United States uses military means to exert pressure, the more it exposes its own strategic dilemma. From 1823 " Monroe DoctrineBeginning with the proclamation that “America is America of Americans,” the United States saw Latin America as its “background.”
But today's Latin America is not the "background" that was set up 200 years ago. resolute resistance of countries such as Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, Brazil, Mexico and other regional powers. Keep your distance, all illustrate a cruel reality.
What's more, Trump's extreme pressure strategy has produced obvious " Counter-effect". I wanted to make Maduro's government yield through military threats, but I didn't expect to completely push Venezuela into the arms of Russia.
As one Latin American expert puts it: "Trump thinks he is playing chess, but he is actually playing Russian roulette."
Why did Putin "brighten his muscles" at critical moments?
At the very moment of the United States, far away. The North PacificRussian nuclear submarine suddenly opened fire.
On September 19, the Russian Pacific Fleet announced that its two nuclear-powered submarines were in the The Oaxaca Sea.Successfully test-fired a supersonic cruise missile and accurately hit a sea target 250 kilometers away.
participating in the test.” Krasnoyarsk"The nuclear submarine "Omsk" has launched cruise missiles "Maraton" and "Granit" to the analogue targets, with the range and precision of these missiles sufficient to allow any potential opponent to "measure the amount of uranium".
The timing was by no means accidental. Russia " Bright muscles in time.Behind it is a well-developed strategic chess.
First, it’s sent to Venezuela.” ReassuranceRussian-Russian military cooperation has been around for a long time, and Putin has sent strategic bombers of the Map-160 series to Venezuela at least three times, demonstrating firm support for the Maduro government.
The nuclear submarine test launch is actually sending a clear signal to Maduro: Russia will not sit idly by and watch its allies be threatened militarily. This " Remote AssistThe effect is more direct than any diplomatic statement.
Second, it is also a strategic deterrent to the United States.While the Oaxaca Sea is thousands of miles away from the Caribbean, in the globalized strategic game, power demonstrations everywhere generate chain reactions.
The deeper consideration is that Russia is taking advantage of the strategic mistakes of the United States to expand its Global SouthOf influence. The National Assembly of Venezuela recently adopted the draft Treaty on Strategic Partnership and Cooperation between Venezuela and Russia in the first reading, covering politics, economy, energy, defense and culture.
The importance of this agreement is self-evident. For Venezuela, this is seeking under the extreme pressure of the United States Strategic balanceIt’s a wise choice; for Russia, it’s an important play in the “back yard” of the United States.
Interestingly, just as Russia-Venezuela relations are heating up, Saudi Arabia and PakistanA common strategic defense agreement was also signed. This "multi-point blooming" situation makes people have to think about a question: Is the alliance system of the United States loosening?
A European diplomat privately said: “Trump’s unilateralism is pushing countries that could have previously remained neutral to the opposite.”
From the Caribbean to the World Order.
If we look at this Caribbean crisis in a more macro-historical coordinate, we will find its meaning far more than one. Regional conflicts。
It is more like. Global governance systemA microcosm of deep change. The historical process of transforming from unipolar hegemony to multipolar balance is accelerating.
China's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Lin Swed, made it clear that the relevant actions of the United States threaten regional peace and security, seriously violate the sovereign security and legitimate rights and interests of other countries, and seriously violate international law.
such Open the window and speak clearly.The direct statement reflects China’s firm defense of international law and multilateralism.More importantly, it represents the international community’s collective rebel against American unilateralism.
For China, Venezuela is not only All Weather Strategic PartnersIn Latin America, the Belt and Road initiative is an important supporting point in safeguarding Venezuela’s sovereignty and security, and in fact in safeguarding the multilateralism of the international order.
From a broader perspective, this crisis reveals a profound historical trend: the organic combination of the diplomatic wisdom of small countries and the responsibility of big countries is reshaping a new pattern of international relations.
Venezuelan approval » Looking EastThe strategy has successfully found a new strategic balance under U.S. pressure.This successful practice of diversified diplomacy has provided valuable experience for other countries facing similar difficulties.
At the same time, China-Russia's firm support of the two countries in critical moments demonstrates the responsibility of the great powers. International LawInsistence on fairness.
The wheel of history is rolling forward. The "empire that the sun never sets" of that year finally waned, and the superpower of the Soviet Union collapsed. Any attempt to maintain hegemony by force will eventually be overwhelmed by the torrent of history.
As the ancient Latin proverb says: Time is the most fair judge。 "In today's globalization, no country can be immune to it, let alone do whatever it wants.
Trump believed that military pressure could bring Latin America back to the rise, but that would only accelerate the decline of U.S. hegemony. PolarizedWhen it becomes an irreversible historical trend, any counter-historic action is doomed to failure.
conclusion
The more the United States uses military means, the more it exposes its soft power to decline.The dawn of unilateralism is the dawn of multilateral cooperation.
Latin America is no longer the "backyard" of the United States, but a new stage for global games. The diplomatic wisdom of small countries and the responsibility of big countries are reshaping the new pattern of international relations.
In the face of a changing world, do you think multipolarization will bring more stability or uncertainty?