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It's still shocking.
David Coleman, a professor at Oxford University, warned as early as 2006,South Korea may become the first country on Earth to disappear naturally。 Nearly twenty years later, this prophecy is becoming reality step by step.
In 2023, South Korea recorded the world’s lowest fertility rate – 0.72This means that the average number of children born per woman is less than one in her life.
Although the birth rate has picked up in the first five months of 2025, the total fertility rate is only 0.75. This is well below the 2.1 replacement level needed to maintain population stability.
South Korea is experiencing a silent national crisis.In 2023, the total fertility rate of this economically developed country is only 0.72, and the number of deaths last year was 117,000 more than that of newborn babies.
From January to May 2025, South Korea's cumulative birth population was 10.648 million, although it increased by 6.9%, the highest increase since the relevant statistics began in 1981, but it is still the third lowest birth rate in the same period.
The "2025 Population Report" released by Korea Future Population Research Institute in July this year revealed the grim population situation in South Korea.
The report noted that if the current trend of ultra-low fertility continues, the total population of South Korea will be reduced to 15% of the current scale by 2125 or about 7.53 million.
In the face of this severe situation, South Korea's former president Yin Xi Jinping declared the country into a demographic state of emergency in June 2024.
The South Korean government has invested large amounts of money in encouraging maternity, with a maternity budget of up to 19.7 trillion won in 2025, equivalent to 100 million won for each newborn.
Since 2006, the Korean government has implemented the fertility incentive policy.By 2025, the list of subsidies you can get for having a child already includes 500,000 won per month childcare subsidy, 2 million won childbirth reward, and 1 year of paid parental leave for each parent。
South Korea’s local government is more involved.
The suburbs of Busan paid up to 20 million yuan in rewards to the couple who got married after the association activities organized in the area.The city of Incheon directly issued the "generating a prize of 100 million yuan" in exchange for approximately 54,6 thousand yuan.
In the face of a “national emergency” with a total fertility rate of about 0.6 people, President Lee Jae-myung has realized that he needs to change his thinking。
Lee Jae-myung, the representative of the Common Democratic Party, said in June this year that it is necessary to take "birth of babies" as the standard for countermeasures against low birth rate, not parents.
Lee Jae-myung pointed out that the low birth rate is an overall social problem caused by the environment in which long hours of labor and interruption of work experience, and individuals are responsible for childcare and childcare.
In a society where the workplace culture dominates with extremely long working hours, having children has become a very bad experience.
In September 2025, Lee announced in the government. 150 trillion yenThe National Growth Fund Programme It is used to support key industries such as the AI industry, semiconductors, mobile mobility, and tries to inject new momentum for national economic growth.
Although the government has introduced so many incentives, young Koreans don't buy them. Instead, there is a strange phenomenon that "the more the government encourages them, the less young people have children".
Financial stress is the primary reason.in Seoul,The average price of an ordinary apartment is more than 1 billion yuan, which is equivalent to the total wage of 30 years.
According to the 2025 statistics of the South Korean Bureau of Statistics, the housing ownership rate among young people aged 20-39 is only 28.3%.
The cost of raising children is surprisingly high.The average annual cost of private kindergartens is up to 30 million yuan.70% of households spend more on monthly education expenses than 30% of their income.
Korean workplace culture overtimeYoung people work an average of more than 48 hours a week, with heavy work pressures giving them time to consider family life. For women, fertility also means huge sacrifices at work.
Women’s postpartum employment rate dropped by 15 percent, and many small and medium-sized even deliberately screened married women when recruiting.
As of June this year, there were about 2.7 million foreigners residing in Korea, accounting for 5.3% of the total population.
But in the "five-year planning plan" and 123 state affairs topics issued by Li in the Ming government's state affairs planning committee, But there is no concrete blueprint on how to manage the 2.7 million foreigners and how to advance the direction of immigration policy.
South Korea’s social exclusion sentiment is severe, and its immigration policy is less inclusive.
South Korea’s ethnic homogeneity is extremely high (95% are Koreans), and cultural integration is difficult. About 30% of Southeast Asian immigrants choose to leave in the first year of coming to Korea, due to high cost of living and widespread discrimination.
Analysts believe that to mitigate the “demographic cliff”, we must push demographic policy strategically in parallel with immigration policy.Since the 1980s, major developed countries have embraced immigration as an important part of population policy.
The impact of the demographic crisis is gradually becoming apparent in South Korea.
Rural schools have been closed one after another due to the lack of students, factories are facing labor shortages, and it is difficult to recruit troops.Even a small village that welcomes a newborn can become a national news.
Banking reports show that aging leads to a 1 percentage point reduction in domestic consumption per year. Factories face difficulty recruiting, and the burden of old-age pensions is increasing – now a young person needs to feed two elderly people.
By 2025, South Korea is expected to formally enter the “super-aged society”, with the proportion of the population over 65 years of age to exceed 20%, while the poverty rate of the elderly has reached 40.4%.
The shrinking labor force forced companies to raise wages to attract employees and further boost production costs.
The director of the South Korea Future Population Institute, Li Yingzhou, said:“In 2025, South Korea is at a crucial turning point in its demographic structure, and as the new government formulates national policies, the demographic issue must undergo a fundamental paradigm shift.”
President Lee Jae-myung emphasized that, Low birth rates are both labour and welfare policies, as well as housing and education policies.
Including Marriage, birth and upbringingAt the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the state's care responsibility, formulate countermeasures to solve the housing problems of newlyweds, improve the working environment, and support the policy package of working and family.
In May this year, the three relevant societies formally proposed to Congress to set up an "Immigration Office under the Prime Minister's Office".The "immigration office" responsible for the formulation of medium- and long-term strategies and inter-departmental coordination is not in vain, but it is necessary.
The Korean demographic crisis is like a slow demographic collapse, which does not collapse instantly, but gradually fades out.
When the news that it took three years for a village to welcome a new baby takes the national spotlight, the phenomenon says more about the magnitude of the problem than any statistic.
The Korea Future Population Research Institute predicts that by 2072,South Korea's population will fall to 36 million, and the proportion of the population over 65 will reach 48%。
This will directly lead to a sharp drop in the working-age population, a decrease in the school-age population and the exhaustion of soldiers.
South Korea stands at a crossroads of life and death. President Lee's response strategy will determine whether the country will become a footprint of history or create a miracle of population recovery.
References:
1. "Feature article" The fertility rate has been sluggish for many years. Why does the class size in Korean primary and secondary schools increase instead of decreasing? "2025-09-14 15:45 | Source: Xinhua News Agency
Korea announces the establishment of a 150 trillion-dollar fund to support investments in advanced industries such as artificial intelligence 2025-09-10 14:14
“20% reduction in South Korean military force in 6 years South Korean MPs: There is a need to increase women’s service opportunities”2025-08-21 15:55 PM Source: Red Star News