Preliminary
30,000 White RussiansArms at the doorstep of NATO.” Oreshnik"Hypersonic missile made public for the first time Nuclear strike exercise, 40,000 Polish troops urgently assembled on the border.
When the sword of Europe was lifted, Indian Army Arrives in Russia， Participate in the West-2025 military exercise simulating a strike against NATO.
When the clouds of war,Why did the Indian army choose to arrive in Russia at this time?
With 30,000 troops pressing the border, why did NATO panic?
Speaking of deterrence, Russia has played a particularly delicate game this time.
Instead of previous massive displays of force, this time Moscow, like a surgeon, precisely projected to different levels of opponents within NATO Different equivalentsDeterrent signal.
The first line of defense was drawn in the Baltic Sea, the Northern Fleet. The Prison"The shore-based missile system was deployed, and two" Onyx "supersonic anti-ship missiles roared out. 2.5 times the speed of soundThe armor directly refers to the simulated fleet 200 kilometers away.
This constitutes the first layer of deterrence, specifically targeting any enemy fleet that tries to land or intervene.
The hierarchy of deterrence rapidly extends inland.
Table of 22m3The long-range bomber tsunamised and the exercise subject was straightforward: hitting enemy command systems and critical infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the "Call" missile with high supersonic defense capabilities is hanged under the wings of the MiG-31. by Iskander"Land-based ballistic missile systems have also entered positions.
This combined kick represents a second level of deterrence, meaning the Russian army has the ability to paralyze a front country like Poland.
What really makes the West feel cold is that last level of deterrence.
According to the exercise plan, Russia will deploy in Belarus " OreshnikHigh-speed medium-range ballistic missile and use it to carry out a strike simulated nuclear strike.。
This is no longer a conventional missile test, but a naked simulation of a nuclear war, with the signal receiver pointing directly to the top strategic decision-makers in Washington, London and Brussels.
Interestingly, in the face of this well-designed deterrent combination, NATO’s reaction was obvious. Internal differentiation。
Front-line countries such as Poland are facing a formidable enemy. Introduction of Article 4 of NATOCall for help, deploy mines in border areas, and build physical barriers.
However, Russia's assessment of this is full of contempt. They believe that static defenses such as landmines have limited effects on airborne troops and Marine Corps.
Even more playful, NATO’s response to Poland’s emergency call, though rapid, clearly lacks the integrity and determination of the Cold War period.
America's Ironest Friend, Why Suddenly Depends on "enemy"
Just as everyone’s eyes were focused on the border between Poland and Belarus, a character that no one could have imagined came from the other end of the world.
The Indian Army, from the famous Kumaon Infantry Regiment, landed directly at the Mulino training ground near Nizhny Novgorod on an IL-76 transport plane.
The appearance of this force was quite unexpected.
India has been very close to the United States over the years, and it is the United States.” Strategy of India"The most important link is the key pawn used to contain China.
The United States gives technology and sells weapons, praising India high, but now India has sent troops directly to participate in a "simulated strike against NATO" exercise.
It was like a big blow in Washington’s face.
In India, it is a pure fire. Balanced。
Of course, India can not separate from Russian weapons, although India is also buying French "winds", American drones, but the base of the military, from aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines to fighter jets, air defense missiles, are basically Russian equipment.
The data clearly illustrates the question: In the Indian army purchase source, Russia is 65%France accounts for 15 percent, Israel for 10 percent, and the United States for only 8 percent.
To turn completely toward the United States is to hand over the vitality of its own defense in the hands of others, which is unacceptable for any ambitious great country.
The deeper consideration is that this is India's demonstration to the United States. " Strategic autonomy"。
New Delhi keeps saying that India is the India of Indians, not a vassal of any country.
The United States wants to pull India against China, it can, but it must respect India’s interests and decisions.
To send troops to the Russian exercise is to show the United States: don’t want me to be a gunman, I have my own circle of friends and rules of conduct.
Most interesting is the reaction of the United States.
The White House and Pentagon were almost collectively silent, except for a few words of nonsense from the State Department spokesman to "express concern".
Because I dare not.
The United States does not dare to sanction India at all now. Its "Indo-Pacific strategy" would become a complete joke without India as a behemoth.
Therefore, for India's "outrageous" behavior, the United States can only hold its nose and admit it, and it has to accompany a smile and say, "We respect India's Independent foreign policy"。
What should the boss do when the younger brother starts to have his own ideas
India's choice is by no means an isolated case, but a microcosm of a larger trend.
Closer inspection shows that more and more middle powers are adopting similar " tactic of impact."。
Turkey played a balanced diplomatic role in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, buying S-400 air defense missiles from both NATO members and Russia.
The UAE has implemented a "hypocrisy strategy" in the US-China game, whileining military cooperation with the United States, and has invested heavily in China's "Belt and Road" project.
Singapore has also played the "active neutrality" policy to the extreme, and is rooted in the competition of the great powers.
What are the common characteristics of these countries?
Purchase of weapons. The degree of pluralismgenerally higher.
The data comparison illustrates the problem: South Korea, Japan and other U.S. Iron Belt allies have more than 85% of unified weapons sources, while India, Turkey, the UAE and other countries maintain 60-70% of diversified procurement.
Diversity of weapons sources has become a measure of countries. Strategic autonomyImportant indicators.
Behind this change lies a profound adjustment of the international power structure.
The golden age of unipolar hegemony of the United States is passing, and the rise of many power centers such as China, Russia and the European Union has provided more choices for medium-sized powers.
In the past, small countries could only choose side teams in the two major camps of the USSR, and now the selection menu is richer.
From a geopolitical point of view, this change is irreversible.
The situation of the "American family monopoly" after the end of the Cold War is itself a special case in history, not the norm.
For most of its history, the international system has been Polarizedof the .
What is happening now is only the return of international relations to their natural state.
For the United States, this is undoubtedly a difficult adjustment process.
Superpowers, accustomed to calling the shots, must now learn to coordinate and compromise with other forces in a more complex and balanced world.
India’s participation in the Russian-Belarus military exercises is like a mirror that depicts the basic characteristics of international relations in the new era: FlexibilityIt is replacing loyalty and becoming the core element of diplomacy.
This is both a challenge and an opportunity for all countries.
The rules of the game are being rewritten, who will be the new hand leader
How will this multipolar trend develop in the future?
Authority analysts believe we are entering one.” Multi-center networkingThe new era of international relations.
Seth Jones, a military expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington, made a thorough analysis: India's participation in the Russian-Belarusian military exercise is a landmark event in the reconstruction of the multipolar world order, which indicates that the Cold War-style camp opposition is being replaced by a more complicated balance of interests.
This "strategic autonomy" model is likely to be emulated by more medium-sized powers.
In the next 10 years, we are likely to see more options like India.
Brazil is in Latin America, South Africa is in Africa, and Indonesia is in Southeast Asia. These regional powers are likely to embark on a similar path.
Traditional military alliances will also face transformational pressures.
That kind of “friend or enemy” binary thinking is outdated and replaced by “friend or enemy.” Thematic Alliance"Pattern.
That is, Congresses work with different partners according to the needs of specific topics, rather than being bound by fixed alliances.
On the issue of climate change, the United States, China and Europe may be partners; They can be competitors when it comes to trade issues; On some regional security issues, they may have different positions.
This complexity is the fundamental characteristic of the multipolar era.
For global governance, this change brings both challenges and opportunities.
The challenge is that pluripolarity means increased cost coordination, making it harder to reach international consensus.
But the opportunity lies in the fact that the decentralization of power also means the strengthening of balancing mechanisms, which is difficult for any country to dictatorship.
In the long run, this could contribute to a more equitable and balanced international order.
For China, this change is generally beneficial.
As a responsible country, China has always advocated. MultilateralismAnd the democratization of international relations, the choice of "strategic independence" of India and other countries objectively helps to break the unipolar hegemony of the United States.
Of course, this also puts forward higher requirements for China's diplomatic wisdom.
In a more complex multipolar world, how to deal with a variety of different types of partners, how to remain cooperative in competition, and how to seek consensus in differences, these are new issues that require constant learning and adaptation.
India’s participation in the Russian-Belarus military exercises, a seemingly coincidental event, actually provides a great opportunity for us to observe the future of international relations. Observing the window.。
conclusion
Multipolarity is not a simple scattering of forces, but a fundamental restructuring of the model of international relations. Traditional camp opposition is meaningless when intermediate powers such as India begin to act in their own interests.
The world of the future will no longer have absolute allies or enemies, only flexible cooperation based on common interests.
Who do you think will be the next country to adopt the “Indian model”?