The Japanese political arena once again staged the drama of "changing people like changing seasons". The current Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba suddenly announced his resignation, causing a shock at the top of the Liberal Democratic Party.
A new round of presidential elections to be held on October 4 will not only determine Japan’s next leader, but may also reshape the political trend in the Asia-Pacific region.
Among the five candidates, Goldman Sachs ranks first with a 28% poll support rate, and her "anti-Chinese, anti-American, anti-Jewish" triplete is causing the international community to collapse, especially for Trump, the new "ally" may be harder to deal with than its opponent.
In Japanese politics, the majority of people who can climb to the top either have a family background or rely on the valve, but the 64-year-old high school early morning is an exception. Her hometown is in Nara Prefecture, and she is from an ordinary family. She has neither touched the light of a political family nor relied on anyone's relationship to pave the way. She has just survived from grassroots members to the core circle of the Liberal Democratic Party step by step.
Early in her life, she entered the Punta Cana - the place where Punta Cana helped to cultivate political talents, and many Japanese politicians came out of it, such as former Prime Minister Nōda Qiyama. During her years here, those conservative ideas in her mind took root, and later she entered the political arena, and this set of ideas became her "foundation".
After joining the Self-Democratic Party in 1996, each step of the high market was like a "betting".In 2011, she simply withdrew from the original "Chin's and Policy Research Association", and clearly said, "I want to support Abe's promise, not to follow the original leader of the valve."
This chess looked at risk, but the result was right — — Abe later took power, directly promoted her as “his own person”. First, she became the first female government investigation chairperson of the Self-Democratic Party, and later she became the secretary of general affairs, once it was 1066 days, setting the longest record in Japan's history.
To know, the Ministry of General Affairs is a "prime minister's cradle", 15 of Japan's 47 prime ministers have done this job, this experience has given her real power and personality in her hands.
Now she leads the presidential election with 28% support, which is much higher than other opponents.In fact, last year's election she almost finished, the first round of voting pressed the first, that is, the second round of parliamentary votes did not play out.
What's more interesting is that her words, which seem outrageous to outsiders-such as boasting the Nazis' "high technical efficiency" and saying that she can "understand" the anti-American sentiment in the 9/11 incident, In the eyes of the Japanese conservatives, it was not a problem, but instead became a proof of "dare to tell the truth", helping her to draw a lot of right-wing votes.
And so, this backgroundless “right-wing amateur” has been in politics for more than thirty years, always standing at the forefront of the conservative wave.
The triple denial of the governing program: the confrontation of historical revision and reality
The policy proposition of the high market, saying that it is "to work with the existing rules", whether historical accounting, diplomacy, or values, all through a twist.
Speaking of historical issues, she is even more extreme than Abe. Every year on August 15th, the anniversary of Japan's defeat, she visits the Yasukuni Shrine for eight consecutive years, which enshrines Class-A war criminals of World War II, and China and South Korea have always opposed it.
She also publicly said that she would change the "Murayama talk", which was the statement made by Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama that acknowledged the history of Japanese aggression, and even insisted that "the Japanese invasion of China was a war of self-defense". She was also a core member of the "everyone came to the Yakuza Shrine Legislature League" and previously spoke "if China and Korea were not pressured to attend, Japanese politics would be over."
Because of this attitude, right-wing groups such as "Japan Conference" regarded her as a "spokesperson". This organization originally denied the Nanjing Massacre and the issue of comfort women, and it was regarded as "the same taste" with her.
In reality, the two things she wants to do most are amending the constitution and "drawing a clear line with China". She has always opposed Article 9 of the Constitution, which stipulates that Japan "will not maintain its war power", saying that the Self-Defense Forces will be changed into "National Defense Forces", and it is obvious that Japan will have an army again.
Prior to her position as the Minister of Economic Security, she daily pushed companies to “dissolve from China”, especially the key industries of semiconductors, in order to force people to relocate production lines from China.On the Diaoyu Islands issue, it is even more horizontal, saying that "if you become prime minister, you will dismantle the buoy placed by China there", regardless of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs's reminder that "it has to be done according to international law".
China's Foreign Ministry has long said that whoever dares to touch China's core interests, has no good fruit to eat, but she doesn't seem to listen at all.
The most insidious is her values. in the books she writes that she can “understand the anti-American sentiment in the 9/11 events”, and also publicly the “technological efficiency” of Nazi Germany as an example, say can “learn”.
Before, someone pulled out a photo of her with the leader of the neo-Nazi organization "National Socialist Great Japan Workers' Party". She also argued that "this photo has no other meaning"-but everyone knows that that organization is to beautify Hitler. Even the Israeli Embassy in Japan couldn't help but negotiate this matter.
But in Japan, many conservatives think that she is "dare to challenge political correctness", but in turn support her, it is not reasonable.
Asia-Pacific chess in the eye of a storm: the cracks and reconstruction of the US-Japanese alliance
If the Prime Minister of Japan were to really become Prime Minister of Japan, not only would the internal trouble in Japan, but the whole Asia-Pacific situation had to change.
Let's talk about the United States first. It is estimated that it is worried now. Takaichi sanae had previously scolded "the United States always interferes in Asian affairs" and said that "Japan can't be the younger brother of the United States all its life".
She did not clearly let the U.S. troops withdraw from Japan, but this attitude will definitely collide with Trump's idea - if Trump comes to power again, it will definitely force Japan to pay more money to raise the U.S. troops, and there will be no less than two people at the time.
Even more headache to the United States is her anti-Semitic remarks, the domestic Jewish lobbying group in the United States is very strong, and now has begun to pressure the government to reassess the relationship with Japan.
On this side of China, if she came to power, the relationship between China and Japan was afraid to fall to the bottom. She not only wanted to deploy more missiles in the southwestern islands, but also planned not to allow China to engage in economic activities in the Sea of Japan, and even promised to engage in “official exchanges” with Taiwan.
But the Japanese business community has long been in a hurry-Japan Keizianlian warns every day that if enterprises are really forced to decouple from China, the food industries such as automobiles and electronics will be finished. You know, China is not only Japan's largest trading partner, but also the key to technical cooperation. It really freezes the relationship, and the Japanese economy can't bear it. How she balances the demands of the right wing with the practical interests at that time may be a big problem.
What's more, the security order of the entire Asia-Pacific region may be disrupted by her.She has been pushing for constitutional amendments and military expansion, and South Korea and North Korea will surely react, if not, a arms race will arise in Northeast Asia.
In addition, if Trump really returns to the White House, both people who advocate "giving priority to their own countries" will get together, and the US-Japan alliance is afraid that there will be a big rift-this alliance has lasted for more than 70 years. If these two people are in a fuss, the entire Asia-Pacific pattern will have to be reshuffled.
It is now a few days from the election of the Chairman of the Self-Democratic Party on October 4, and no one dares to vote before the results come out. But regardless of whether she will eventually become prime minister, the right-wing storm she has sparked has put the Asian-Pacific political trend at risk.In the next few days, it is estimated that all parties will have to keep an eye on Japan's movements.
Source of information:
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The Paper: At a sensitive moment, she hyped Abe's phrase "If something happens to Taiwan Province, something happens to Japan"