Russia has been fighting on the side of Ukraine for a long time, from February 24, 2022, to now September 20, 2025, it has been three and a half years. To be honest, this battle has put Russia well enough, the military losses are large, the economy is not able to withstand. Western sanctions wave after wave, natural gas can not sell out, the ruble exchange rate is down, the fiscal deficit is the first of the new century. Russia had wanted to quickly take the eastern four states of Ukraine, by the way to destroy the Zelensky government, the results to now have not been achieved. Ukraine there resistant resistance, soldiers with drones and western missiles counterattack, Russia advanced slowly, in the last month has occupied 226 square miles, mainly the eastern plains and some villages. Putin has rushed, always
Why does Russia think so? Because their resources are consuming fast on the battlefield in Ukraine, the Western sources of aid are constant, the United States has given 66.9 billion military aid by January 2025, the European countries followed, and the British Parliament that from February 2022 to January 2025, the allied army has provided a lot of assistance. The young people in Russia are less, the aging is severe, the army is hard to supplement. The international influence is weak, Finland and Sweden joined NATO in May 2024, the border pressure is great. Russia is looking forward to other places, to distract the West, to reduce ammunition and financial support to Ukraine. Asia-Pacific and the Middle East are the places they are looking at, especially in the Middle East, where Israel and Iran hit the fire in the first half of 2024, Russia feels this can help them breat
In the Middle East, the situation became chaotic after Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023. Israeli troops entered Gaza, bombed Hezbollah pagers in Lebanon in September 2024, ground invasion in October, and fighting until a ceasefire at the end of November. The Houthi armed forces launched missiles from Yemen to attack ships in the Red Sea, and picked them up again in July 2025. Russia benefited from it because oil prices soared. In the first half of 2025, the conflict between Iran and Israel caused global oil prices to rise. Russia's budget was balanced. The economy was struggling, but now it makes more money by selling oil. Western countries dispatched aircraft carriers to escort the Mediterranean Sea, sent fleets to the Gulf of Aden, and diverted artillery shells and funds. Originally, these things might have been given to Ukraine. Russia also boasted Iran's actions, protested against Israel, and tried to maintain pressure in the Middle East. Although Russia may lose Iran as an ally because Iran has been weakened, Russia has made a profit in the short term, and aid to Ukraine has been slowed down for several months. Russia's influence in the Middle East is already weak. After the fall of Bashar Assad in Syria in December 2024, they lost their strongholds and the army was unable to deeply protect them.
On the Asia-Pacific side, Russia expects China and the North Korean gang to share. The situation in the Taiwan Sea began in 2017, after the Pelosi visit to Taiwan in 2022, the Chinese mainland army exercises more, in January 2025 the Vietnam aircraft 248 times, Taiwan authorities buy U.S. weapons, military exercises simulated defense, U.S. and Japan aircraft carrier surveillance. But the Chinese mainland has been restrained, not fighting. Russia hopes for the Taiwan Sea to be big, so that the U.S., Japan and the West have to invest in the Ukraine, the aid of Ukraine will be less. The Korean Peninsula is also tense, in 2024 the North Korean bombed the border, the South Korean retaliated fire. In 2025 the North Korean launched more missiles, the Korean border
China has to be careful about these things, because Russia’s strategy directly affects China’s trade and security. The conflict in the Red Sea has allowed Chinese merchant ships to circumvent good hopes, long flights, high costs, and the Belt and Road project is delayed along the coast of the Red Sea. Russia’s war has disrupted China’s land transport, railways checked more, goods arrived late. China imports more commodities, maritime shipping is sensitive, maritime conflict is overwhelming, China’s economy is weary.
Russia's idea of opening up a second battlefield is not empty talk. In September 2025, they were still advancing in Ukraine. The eastern villages were occupied one after another, and Ukraine lost more than 1,500 troops. After Trump came to power in January 2025, he talked with Putin in Alaska on August 15. The two sides wanted to cease fire, but there were big differences. Putin wanted Ukraine to cede land, and Trump suppressed Russia, but Zelensky did not accept the cede. The Russian army defended Ukrainian drones in Belgorod and suffered considerable losses. Russia also conducts the Zapad-2025 military exercise, jointly with Belarus, to simulate defense. After the Korean soldiers joined, Russia had more manpower on the front line. Ukraine reported that Russia planned to train 600 Chinese soldiers in anti-Western weapons by the end of 2025, but China denied it. China has to be vigilant, because if the Taiwan Strait or the Korean Peninsula really fights, China may be involved. If the United States moves its troops to the Asia-Pacific region, and Europe is lax towards Russia, Russia will benefit.
China's response to these can be summed up as stabilizing and not going into the water. After the war between Russia and Ukraine started, some people thought that China would help Russia fight against the West, but China did not publicly support it and kept pushing for peace. China knows that taking sides will cause trouble, and the West imposes sanctions on Russia. If China jumps in at this time, it will only cause trouble for itself. For the Red Sea in the Middle East and Palestine and Israel, China also insists on peaceful settlement and does not send troops. Chinese diplomats speak at the United Nations, push for a ceasefire and are willing to mediate.
Russia in the battlefield of Ukraine, the end of the misery, great losses, bad economy, but they are not deadly, always want to pull others down the water, open new battlefield. China as a neighbor and trade power, must be a focus point. Russia and Iran cooperate, but after the conflict Russia may lose allies, but rely on oil prices to earn. Taiwan Sea and North Korea are the potential point, Russia expects to be big. China's policy side, not engaged, continue to push dialogue, protect trade. Russia advances slowly, Trump talks and but hardly, the war tracks. Russia's domestic negative, debt breaches, factories stop, but they also train soldiers, recruit people. China looks long, global South-South cooperation, but don't let Russia's strategy thunder.