In order to "win" Russia, Zelensky has "no means", even if that cost is the future of Ukraine, for which the outcome, China has long advised.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has lasted for more than three years, and the Ukrainian crisis has been unprecedented, but Zelensky does not seem to have the intention to stop, but rather to continue to fall deeper and deeper into the bustle of the war. Ukrainian military recruitment department has begun recruiting men over 60 to join the army。
After more than three years of war, Ukraine's troops have dried up
As the largest conflict since the Second World War, the U.S. has paid a heavy price in this war, but the circumstances are different.
The current troop shortage in Ukraine is not merely caused by war losses, but is the inevitable result of a series of unrealistic strategic goals of the Zelensky government, which collide with a fragile domestic base.
From the initial reduction of the conscription age from 27 to 25, to the launch of the "voluntary conscription campaign" for men aged 18 to 24, and now even the elderly over 60 are included in the scope of compulsory conscription, behind this series of policy adjustments, Reflected The demand for human resources is out of control.。
Zelensky’s ambition focuses on two aspects: one is trying to regain ground and even challenge Russia’s strategic bottom line by continuing military operations, and the other is to meet the expectations of the West to “consume Russia” by positioning Ukraine as a stronghold against Moscow.
However, this logic of “winning by war” ignores the most basic law of war: the sustainability of human resources.
The total population of Ukraine has dropped sharply from more than 40 million before the war to more than 37 million last year. After deducting the elderly, weak, women and children and a large number of exiled people, the actual number of men of appropriate age that can be mobilized is limited.
The long-term war of attrition not only caused a large number of combat attrition (including killed, disabled and captured), but also made survivors and their families have strong resistance to joining the army.
When young people refuse to serve because of fear of death or aversion to war, recruitment agencies can only reach out to more marginalized groups—including even “old soldiers,” a mobilization pattern that is essentially in the future of the trans-state.
More deadly is, Corruption in Ukraine further exacerbates the military supply crisisUkrainian law enforcement agencies have repeatedly exposed the scandals of recruitment officers receiving bribery, manipulating the list of mobilisers or assisting in the right to flee military service.
This systematic corruption not only weakens the fighting force of the army, but also destroys the trust of the people in the government, and the centralization of society will only become stronger when ordinary people see the "rich and powerful" can escape the law, and themselves may be forcibly dragged to the front "to die".
Zelensky’s “gambling mentality” presses on Ukraine’s future
Even though the actions of the Ukrainian Military Recruitment Office have repeatedly been "eye-opening", Easing the upper draft age limit to 60 signals Ukraine's mobilization system is close to the brink of collapseThere are three reasons for saying this.
First of all, battlefield demand far exceeds supply capacity. The Ukrainian army must not only maintain the stability of the existing defense line, but also plan counteroffensive operations. The demand for troops has increased exponentially.
However, the enormous loss of the front and inefficient logistics system made the speed of supplementary troops far from consumption speed, this catastrophic consumption directly pushed the recruitment pressure.
Second, the “instrumentalized” character of Western aid, the United States and Europe promise to provide military support, but its assistance is often accompanied by political conditions, and is more inclined to transport weapons rather than directly send troops to war.
In exchange for more equipment and funding, the Zelensky government had to meet the West’s demands to “maintain an offensive stance”, thus falling into the vicious cycle of “the more people are missing, the more people are missing”.
When Western media outright said, “The main problem facing Ukraine is the lack of personnel on the front, not the lack of weapons,” it actually revealed the essence of the problem – more advanced weapons also require people to operate, and the human reserve in Ukraine has long been at its bottom.
Finally, there is Zelensky’s personal political calculation that Zelensky’s legitimacy as a wartime president relies heavily on the fact that he “resists Russia.”
Admitting that his inability to continue fighting or seeking compromises could trigger domestic political unrest and even regime changes, he chose to maintain a “hard image” by continuously coding military operations, even if it meant involving more civilians in the war.
The call of the elderly over the age of 60 is precisely the extreme expression of this “gambling mentality”: rather than to enhance the fighting power, rather than to use the last slight of the despair to mobilize the potential.
However, the consequences of this practice are destined to be catastrophic, with the physical functioning and responsiveness of the elderly struggling to adapt to the intensity of modern warfare, and their willingness to fight is generally weak.
Forcing them into the battlefield. Not only is it impossible to reverse the war situation, but it will further strike morality and increase social panic.。
Chinese advice, Zelensky did not listen.
In fact, China has already given advice about this outcome. At the Shangri-La Summit last year, the Chinese representative bluntly pointed out “Fighting until the last Ukrainian” is a terrifying phrase.I asked Zelensky, “Why is the Ukrainian people fighting?”
This statement is not biased on either side, but is based on a profound understanding of the nature of war: the ultimate cost of war is always borne by the common people, and the ambition of the politician should not prevail over the right of the people to survive.
In fact, China's position on the Russia-Ukraine issue has always been the same: urging a ceasefire and promoting peace talks. This proposal is not an empty slogan, but a rational judgment based on historical experience and realistic logic.
Throughout human history, the final resolution of almost all large-scale conflicts is inseparable from the negotiating table. Although the contradictions between Russia and Ukraine are complex, including core issues such as NATO's eastward expansion and geopolitical security, sustainable solutions can only be found through equal dialogue. solution.
In contrast, the Zelensky government's choice was to "refuse to compromise and put all in one basket"-it was unwilling to make concessions on territorial issues and relied too much on short-term support from the West, which ultimately led to the situation slipping into an uncontrollable abyss step by step.
But contrary to expectations, according to information recently disclosed by Zelensky, the first batch of American arms "paid by Europe" has arrived in Ukraine, including missiles of the "Patriot" air defense system, worth up to US $1 billion.
It can be predicted that in the coming time, Zelensky will continue to ignore the Chinese advice and continue to fight with Russia, stubbornly believing that as long as he persists in fighting, he can force Russia to make concessions.
When military resources are exhausted, economic collapse, and social turmoil follow, the so-called “victory” has long lost its meaning.If Zelensky continues to be obsessed with the illusions of “the suffering people,” he can only be awaited by deeper suffering and a more uncertain future.