On September 18, Polish Interior and Executive Minister Marcin Kelvinsky made it clear at a press conference that Poland continued to close border ports on the so-called "security considerations" due to the joint military exercises "West-2025" held by Russia and Belarus, and was closed indefinitely.
It is important to know that between 85% and 90% of the goods in Central Europe will enter the European Union through Poland. The port of Malacevic is almost the threshold for the Central European line to enter Europe, and as a result, more than 300 trains full of electronics, automotive parts, photovoltaic components stayed directly in Belarus, and the overall supply chain cost increased by more than 15% at once. The European Railway Freight Association estimates that this move could freeze China's trade in up to €25 billion.
There was a background for this matter. Not long ago, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Poland and held talks with the Polish President and Foreign Minister. The two sides also jointly issued official documents, promising to ensure the safe and smooth operation of China-Europe trains. Poland also clapped its chest face to face and said that it would go all out to provide guarantee for the passage of trains. And the result? The front foot is still signing documents with China, but the back foot will go back on his word and directly shut down the port indefinitely. This kind of practice, to put it bluntly, is dishonest.
Poland said it was because of the tension caused by the Russian-Belarusian military exercise, but the military exercise ended on September 16th. The tension at the border may exist, but the "security reason" of closing all ports across the board and maintaining them indefinitely is too far-fetched. In fact, there is probably political calculation behind this. As a die-hard ally of the United States in Europe, Poland often plays the role of Depth Charge. This time, using the China-Europe train as a bargaining chip is not only to trap China, but also to show loyalty to the United States by creating obstacles for China and Russia.
But the problem is that Poland calculated wrong, China is not the first to encounter this situation, it has long been prepared. China-European airline is an important route right, but it is not the only option. On September 19, China's Ningbo port came to news that it was already preparing a cargo ship, testing a new route through the Arctic route, preparing for the opening of the "Central European Arctic Express", scheduled for departure on September 20. China's response can be said to be simple: you Poland think of us, we are directly around you.
Why is this Arctic route important? because it connects Eastern China’s ports directly to major European ports such as Felixstown, Rotterdam, Germany, Hamburg, and even Gdansk, Poland. The journey can be shortened to 18 days, saving a lot of time than traditional Suez Canal routes.
This time, Poland moved the stone and struck its own foot. First, it could also earn roads and logistics profits through Central European lines, and now because of its operations, it could turn Chinese and European companies to other channels. Second, as soon as the Arctic route runs smoothly, Central European lines will naturally be dispersed, Poland's position in Eurasian logistics will be greatly discounted. Third, it will make foreign investors crack, who dares to cooperate with a long-term partner of change?
The impact of this incident is not limited to Poland. From an enlarged perspective, China and Russia may further strengthen cooperation and consolidate their control over global waterways. The United States wants to contain China and Russia through its allies, but as a result, China and Russia are forced to get closer. On the issue of the Arctic waterway, China has long stated that it is willing to cooperate with countries along the Arctic Ocean, including Russia, to jointly develop and utilize this waterway to ensure the environment and stability. This is not a stopgap measure, but a long-term strategy. With climate change, the value of the Arctic waterway is increasingly valued, and it may become a new artery of international trade in the future.
In the long run, this event could be a breakdown, and the Central European line would be affected, but the opening of the "Central European Arctic Express" means that China and Europe's logistics pattern is being reshaped. China has the ability and resources to build a more resilient international transport network. And Poland in this process, it is likely to be marginalized. The reality has shown that the more people want to control others by shaking, the easier it is for others to open the oven. Poland's operation, not only lost confidence, but also unexpectedly pushed China to develop new routes. It can be said that this is a very realistic geopolitical lesson.
It can be predicted that the future international logistics pattern will inevitably be diversified. China, in the framework of the "Belt and Road", continuously advances the construction of new channels, not only for its own benefit, but also in providing security for the global industrial chain stability. From the Trans-California Sea to the Arctic, from the Southern Canal to the Rail Sea transportation, China is telling the world with practical actions that any country's obstacles can not stop China and the world's cooperation.