Who could imagine that the five Central Asian countries, which have always been calm, have collectively "shifted their heads."
A seemingly ordinary summit, but like a thunderstorm, exploded in the Russian backyard.
In August 2024, the five Central Asian countries and Japan sat at the same "round table" in the capital of Kazakhstan, Astana, and on the surface talked about cooperation, in fact, a major geopolitical shift.
Japan has thrown out the 300-billion-yen credit quota of the "banknote seduction", and Central Asian countries have shaken their heads.
This scene changed the face of the Kremlin, and Putin's anger rose in a straight line.
The game behind it is not only an economic account, but also a relayout of the chess game of big countries.
Japan's "banknote ability" offensive: 300 billion yen incites Central Asia's thoughts
This is not the first time in Japan, but this time it is difficult.
The credit quota of 30 billion yen, the packaging of mineral, energy, infrastructure, technical cooperation and other "big gift packages", the temptation is directly filled.
Japan is well aware of where the Central Asian countries have the shortcomings: lack of technology, lack of equipment, and lack of financing.
Then strike accurately, specifically provoking.
Kazakhstan has become the “number one sample room.”
Japanese enterprises invest $9 billion in developing copper and uranium mines, accounting for 40% of their total foreign investment.
This is not a one-time transaction, but a long-term binding.
From energy to resources, Japan has spread out across the board, almost regarding this place as an extended front.
Of course, the most strategic one is the big plan called the "Middle Corridor".
Everyone knows that the traditional trade route from Central Asia to Europe has to go around Russia.
But Japan has taken a different path, leading the construction of land-to-sea transportation channels connecting Central Asia, the Caspian Sea and the South Caucasus to Europe.
By the end of 2024, the freight volume of this corridor has soared to 4.1 million tons, and Kazakhstan's exports to Europe via Turkey have increased by 30%.
This is not an ordinary infrastructure, it is a “economic escape route” to circumvent Russia.
In Uzbekistan, Japan's textile automated production line allowed a direct 40% increase in production capacity.
In Tajikistan, Japan assisted in the construction of hydropower stations, which solved the problem of power shortage.
These projects don't sound earth-shattering, but they directly hit the pain points of people's livelihood and won the actual favor of Central Asian governments.
Compared to the European-American aid, which “speaks about human rights, speaks about the system,” Japan is more like a non-noticing “partner.”
If the Central Asian countries were passively dependent on Russia in the past, then now Japan has shown them the possibility of “proactive choices.”
Central Asian country’s ‘conscious choice’: no longer being one’s adjective
This sudden collective “turn-back” of the five Central Asian countries to Japan was not a heating of the head, but a thoughtful “strategic push-up.”
The region has long been regarded as Russia’s “back garden” and is almost entirely dependent on Moscow in terms of economy, security and culture.
But the Russian conflict completely changed the situation.
The war makes it difficult for Russia to protect itself.
Energy exports were restricted by Europe, and they turned to seize the Central Asian market. As a result, natural gas export prices from Central Asian countries plummeted, and Kazakhstan's exports to China shrank by half.
On the security side, Russia withdrew 30 percent of its troops from Central Asia by 2024, and Tajikistan even rejected a request for an extension of the Russian military presence agreement.
The former “paraply” has now become a burden.
Central Asian countries don't want to be "other people's backyard" anymore.
They began to take the initiative to find a balance in multilateral diplomacy.
Japan's "pragmatic non-interference" policy is particularly pleasing to the eye.
No political conditions, no ideological abductions, only business, only construction, who would refuse such cooperation?
Kazakhstan used Japanese loans to repair roads, and logistics costs dropped by 25%.
Uzbekistan has signed a free trade agreement with the European Union, but considers Japan as a major technological partner.
The Central Asian country’s strategy is clear: no longer battle any side, but a comprehensive bet on multilateral balance.
This “awareness” is not only a judgment of reality, but also proactive planning for the future.
Central Asia no longer wants to be held by the big powers, but to choose its own path and determine its own rhythm.
In this geo game, they are no longer chess players, but try to become chess players.
Putin's "frustration": the stalling decline of established forces in Central Asia
Japan’s “money capability” has moved Central Asian countries collectively, but has made Putin feel “heartbreaking” that not only the money issue, but the “land” is being cut off.
Central Asia, the traditional Russian sphere of influence, is now being swallowed by an inch.
After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia had intended to see Central Asia as a "post-energy garden", but the result was contrary.
Russia's share of the Central Asian natural gas market will be 65% in 2022, and only 42% will be left by 2025.
Turkmenistan sold most of its natural gas to China, while Kazakhstan simply purchased American liquefied natural gas, which was 15% cheaper.
Putin originally hoped to continue binding Central Asia with "natural gas bargaining price", and it turned out that people didn't buy accounts at all.
Look at the military.
Tajikistan, which has always been the most obedient, actually refused to extend the Russian garrison agreement in 2024.
Russian military bases in Central Asia began to be marginalized.
Putin was in a hurry and personally flew to Azerbaijan to repair the "Caspian Energy Alliance", but the response was cold and no one wanted to take the blame for Russia anymore.
More ridiculous is the “acid grape psychology” of Russian media.
They accused Japan of “buying people’s hearts in yen,” but the reality is that the Central Asian polls show that 62% of the population supports “diversified diplomacy.”
In other words, even if Russia screams its throat, it is difficult to stop the Central Asian country from wanting to “change its way of life.”
Russia's influence is gradually disintegrating, and it is ineffective to rely on military affairs, energy and historical emotions.
However, Putin can play fewer and fewer cards, and he has to face an embarrassing reality: Central Asia, the former "backyard", is quietly closing the back door and starting a new stove.
New field of battle in the game of great powers: Central Asia doesn’t want to be an “candidate”
The change in Central Asia is by no means a victory of a single Japanese family, but a shrinkage of a multi-faceted force.
The United States, the European Union, and China are also on this chessboard "You sing, I appear."
The United States has engaged in a "C5+1" mechanism, playing the banner of cooperation, and the reality is not sluggish.
Military assistance, * promotion, and information infiltration are the same, but the investment amount is only one tenth of that of Japan, and the sincerity is not enough, so Central Asian countries naturally don't care much.
The EU has changed its approach, from environmental protection, to engage in "carbon tariffs", forcing Central Asian countries to modify environmental standards.
Uzbekistan had to codify environmental regulations in order to get EU investment, and the investment threshold increased.
This “abduction” cooperation, the Central Asian countries do not eat this set.
China remains the most important economic partner of Central Asia.
In 2024, the China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline transportation volume will reach 20 million tons, and China's investment in the Central Asian railway network also continues to advance.
But there are also voices out there questioning whether China’s investment model will create “debt pressure.”
This makes China's "going global" strategy also face adjustment.
Central Asian countries are constantly practicing "balancing" in the right-hand side.
They don’t want to be dragged away by the United States, they don’t want to be dragged away by China, and they don’t want to die and die on Russia.
What they want is autonomy, space, and a sense of existence in the seam of the great powers.
Small countries can also turn, the key is to see who is more steadfast.
This roundtable summit, led by Japan, is in fact a “diplomatic declaration” by Central Asian countries: we are no longer affiliates or spectators, but participants, players and selectors.
From the "back garden" to the "transit station", from dependence to independence, the five Central Asian countries tell the world with their actions: whoever can bring tangible benefits is the partner worthy of cooperation.
How long can the old rules last?
Per from this “turning” in Central Asia, we’ve already seen the answer.
The chess pieces in Central Asia began to make their own moves.