On September 18, Trump suddenly announced at a joint press conference in London with British Prime Minister Stammer that the United States wanted to regain control of the Bagram Air Force Base, which was the US military's core base in Afghanistan.The next day, China's Foreign Ministry officially confirmed that the long-haul cargo ship will launch the "Central European Arctic Express" on September 20, crossing the Arctic Sea straight to Europe.
One is to return to the military in Central Asia, the other is to open new channels for global trade. The two seemingly unrelated events happened in just 48 hours, and the Chinese side has just announced a new route., the United States is shouting to return to Afghanistan. Is this a coincidence or an advanced game? Why is Trump anxious to restart the old dream of "Imperial Cemetery"? What does it mean for China to test the Arctic Express at this time?
On the 15th of September, the Polish government suddenly announced that the Central European line was suspended. The Central European mainland artery had never been interrupted before, even during the most intense of the conflict in Russia and Ukraine.
Many people thought it was a technical or security issue at first, but soon some media pointed out that the United States may be hidden behind this. Poland's move happened on the eve of the upcoming phone call between high-level officials of China and the United States, and the timing was too coincidental. As the main channel of land trade, once the China-Europe train is interrupted, it is equivalent to choking the artery of China's exports to Europe. No wonder some analysts say that this is a bargaining chip at the negotiating table.
Just as the outside world speculated on how China would respond, Beijing announced on September 18 that China-European Arctic Express flight was about to be tested. This route departed from China and crossed the Beirut Strait, along the Arctic route straight to St. Petersburg, and eventually connected European ports such as the Netherlands, Germany and others.
The entire journey took only 18 days, almost a third shorter than the traditional Malacca-Suez route, and completely circumvented the U.S.-controlled sea route. The news immediately sparked global attention, Russia’s TASS first time issued, praising this “historic breakthrough in the Arctic commercial navigation route”.
This is not a temporary concern. As early as 2018, China released the white paper "China's Arctic Policy", proposing to build the "Ice Silk Road", which has finally landed.The Arctic ice sheet has not yet completely freezed, and cargo ships are ready for departure, indicating that China’s preparation for the route has long been in place.
On the same day, Trump's topic suddenly shifted from Russia and Ukraine to Afghanistan. He called it a "historic mistake" for the Taliban to "occupy" the Bagram base in vain, and publicly stated that the United States wanted to regain control of the base. This is not simple nostalgia, but strategic re-layout. Trump himself said that Bagram is only an hour's flight from China's nuclear facilities.
He not only wants a military presence, but also hopes to influence China’s new terrestrial trade channels by controlling Afghanistan to deter Iran and Pakistan.
Because, at the same time that Poland closed the Central European line, China didn’t wait for each other’s drop-off, launched another railway link to unite Pakistan, Iran and Turkey. This new route departs from the port of Gwadar in Pakistan, enters Turkey through Iran and eventually connects to the European rail system.
Such adjustments directly bypassed Poland, and also wiped out the intention of the United States to manipulate behind the scenes. What is even more surprising to the West is that Iran and Pakistan have long been a nail in the eyes of the United States, but now become a key hub for Chinese logistics.Although Turkey is a member of NATO, it has chosen to cooperate with China in the face of practical interests.
The United States originally wanted to rely on Poland to block land roads, and did not think that China directly responded with "two lines together", with both a new Arctic route and a Southern railway combination. Trump saw the layout being broken one by one and hurried to jump straight.
But the problem is, Afghanistan is not a place to enter if you want to. In 2021, the United States withdrew its troops in a hurry, leaving a mess all over the ground. So far, the Taliban has strongly opposed the presence of foreign troops, and there is basically no way for the US troops to come back. Not only is the Afghan government opposed, but neighboring countries such as Iran and Pakistan are also wary of the United States setting up military bases at its doorstep.
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded clearly on September 19th: Respect Afghanistan's sovereignty and refrain from supporting any acts that undermine regional stability。 Russia is also watching. The Arctic waterway passes through the Russian coastline, and China's trial is good for Russia, with economic benefits and geographical mutual trust win-win. But if the United States plants its flag in Central Asia again, Russia will definitely resent it.
Behind this game, there is actually the anxiety of the United States facing reality. The Sino-US trade war has been going on for many years, and the United States expected that China would be crushed. As a result, the United States' own inflation soared and its manufacturing industry was hollowed out. Through entrepot trade, China still successfully maintains the circulation of goods.
When the United States fights a tariff war, China will open up new markets; When the United States pinches the waterway, China will open up a new path.The Trump administration has long understood that it can't win China by economic war alone, so it began to turn to geopolitical games. BlackRock's acquisition of CK Hutchison's port shares, and the United States pressured Panama to renegotiate the management rights of the canal... These operations all revolve around one point: The sea throat.
The United States has more than 800 military bases overseas, most of which are built near the global maritime hub. The Strait of Malacca, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Panama Canal, are all places where the U.S. military has long existed. But once the Arctic hub is opened, these arrangements are like dams that have been bypassed and lose their meaning. Central European Arctic hubs not only save time and cost, but also a positive challenge to U.S. maritime hegemony.
The opening of the southern railway intermodal transport is another heavy blow to the layout of the United States in Central Asia. Trump's plan of "returning to Afghanistan" is more like gambling, trying to destroy China's economic layout by military means, but the difficulty, cost and international resistance far exceed his imagination.
The situation in Afghanistan is complicated, and the US military has long been scarred. Even if a base is really built, it will be difficult to pose a real threat. On the contrary, China's strategy is more stable, opening up multiple channels with practical actions, and opening three channels if one fails, neither confrontation nor compromise.
China does not rely on shouting slogans, but on actions to weave a large network of economic cooperation around the world. The more the U.S. wants to block, the faster China breaks through.The more Trump wants to block, the more China can bypass.This is not a hard and hard confrontation, but a quantity of flexibility and stubbornness.
Trump is still attached to the Cold War mindset, while China is already building a new global logistics map. Arctic expedition is not a destination, but a new starting point. By September 20, cargo ships had already departed from Chinese ports to the Arctic Ice Sea. The pilot flight of this route was not only a breakthrough in shipping technology, but also a major shift in geostrategy.
Trump's plan of "returning to Afghanistan" is still lip service. The Taliban has not responded so far, and the anti-war sentiment in the United States is also heating up. On the chessboard of the Sino-US game, one is building a new road, and the other is turning over old scores. One draws the future in the Arctic, and the other digs up the past in Central Asia. In this confrontation, it has become clearer and clearer who can go further.
In this battle of unseen smoke, the real victory is not in how loud it is, but in who can walk more steadily.
Source of information:
China will open "Central European Arctic Express", US media: climate change is reshaping the geopolitical pattern
[2] Trump plans to regain the Bagram air base in Afghanistan and tame China, the Foreign Ministry responds Global Network