Recently, the international situation has caused panic, especially Russia, which feels like being squeezed by both sides and breathless.
On the one hand, in the European direction, NATO countries are looking closely at their borders; on the other hand, near the Arctic Circle, the United States and Canada are conducting joint military exercises, and Russia's Far East gateway is directly feeling pressure.
This situation of double-strike is not new, but this time the overlapping factor of nuclear weapons makes things more difficult.
Russia and Belarus jointly conducted the "West 2025" military exercises on 12-16 September, directly simulating the attack on Polish targets with Iskander missiles, including nuclear strike training.
This is a practical tactical exercise that reduces deployment time and improves the ability to respond quickly.
Poland reacted fiercely, directly closing its border with Belarus, assembling about 40,000 troops, using Leopard 2, M1A1 and K2 tanks, and fully operating its air force and air defense systems in actual combat mode.
Russia's display of its nuclear weapons brand can be regarded as its last trump card to stabilize the situation and avoid further expansion of the disadvantages of multi-line operations.
Russia has been facing Western sanctions and military pressure since its Ukraine operation began in February 2022. NATO continues to expand eastward, and neighboring countries such as Poland, Lithuania and Latvia have strengthened their border defenses and conducted their own military exercises in response.
On September 9, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced the closure of the border. The reason is that the “West 2025” exercise was too aggressive, and the locations for the exercise included the Grodno region near Poland and the Barysov training site.
The video released by the Russian Defense Ministry shows that the exercises involve armoured vehicles crossing the forest, attack helicopters and bombers taking off, and military ships and submarines operating at sea.
Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Hrenin said: The exercise will test Russia’s new oak missile system, which can carry nuclear warheads, and is scheduled to be delivered to Belarus by the end of the year.
During the exercise, Russian troops simulated strikes on NATO territory, especially the strategic location of the Suwalki Corridor, a narrow strip connecting Poland and Lithuania, sandwiched between Belarus and Kaliningrad.
If anything happens, this is the hot spot of conflict.
Poland not only closed the border, but also launched the "Iron Shield-25" military exercise, involving 30,000 troops, with another 5,000 sent directly to the border.Lithuania and Latvia also closed airspace near Russia and Belarus, and Poland imposed flight restrictions on September 10.
The measures were partly due to the Russian drone incursion, which saw Polish and NATO warplanes shoot down a Russian drone entering Polish airspace on Sept. 10, the first time the West fired directly on a Russian target since the Ukraine conflict in 2022.
The Russian side has denied the intentional invasion, but this has escalated tensions.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Lukashenkoined a close alliance, and Lukashenko agreed in May 2023 to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, this exercise is to deepen this cooperation.
Lukashenko inspected the exercise site and emphasized that this was a defensive response, but from the outside world, it was more like a deterrent to NATO.
On the other hand, the pressure in the Arctic direction.
In Russia’s Far East region, especially near the White Sea, the United States and Canada conducted large-scale joint naval air exercises in early September, dominated by the Alaska battlefield, involving F-35 fighters and Canadian naval ships, simulating strikes and defenses on the Arctic high latitude battlefield.
The exercise began on August 25 and lasted until the end of the month, involving more than 6,400 soldiers, 100 aircraft and seven ships.
The Russian Pacific Fleet’s reconnaissance aircraft departed for surveillance, and the Mexican Fleet approached directly the waters surrounding Vladivostok.
The United States has strengthened its sense of presence in the Arctic, in part in response to Russian activities in the Barents Sea. The Russian Navy launched a meteoric high-speed supersonic missile during exercises, taking off from the Barents Sea and hitting simulated targets.
The Baltic Fleet also dispatched, launching Karibur missiles. Russia feels the multi-line squeeze from Eastern Europe to the Arctic, and the Far East gateway and European space are compressed at the same time.
This two-sided strategic pattern is approaching the nuclear threshold.
Russia simulated the use of tactical nuclear missiles in retaliatory strikes on Poland during the exercises, and the public demonstration of the Iskander system has exacerbated concerns in neighboring countries.
Russian troops practice rapid deployment to shorten the process of nuclear weapons, which means they use nuclear deterrence as a safe hub.
NATO is clear that once a full fight with Russia, Europe will fall into the dirt, the United States will have to extract resources from the Indo-Pacific region, and the Asia-Pacific strategy will be messy.
China has so farined its neutral stance, which has become a key factor for all parties not to dare to ignore delusions.
China's position in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is quite unique. Since the outbreak of the conflict in February 2022, China has clearly supported peace, adhered to neutrality, and has not provided military assistance to any party, nor has it participated in NATO sanctions. This is not a vague position, but a precise strategic thinking.
China does not engage in military groups, does not proactively provoke, does not engage in agent wars, and at the same time strengthens domestic industrial chains, scientific and technological autonomy, food energy security and military modernization.
When the global turmoil intensifies, China has become a small number of great countries that can stabilize the situation.The West always wants to pull China out of the water, because China is not involved, can take the fishing interest.
More importantly, all parties cannot predict China's reaction. Once the conflict escalates, China, which has not participated in the war, will be in a more favorable position.
From a geographical point of view, if China does not participate in the five permanent members, the other four permanent members will not dare to really fight, otherwise it will be cheaper for China.
If any US-Russian side takes the first step, China will quickly take over.If NATO fights with Russia, the entire European economy will decline, the United States will be distracted from support, and the Indo-Pacific plan will collapse.
If Russia ventures, China's influence will increase.China's position now is not to take risks, but to be able to actively choose in key nodes, there are many options.
Therefore, all parties involved dare not gamble. China's advantage is not a result of lying down and waiting, but the result of long-term strategic determination.
Insisting on not getting involved in conflicts and focusing on internal development gives China high credibility in diplomatic occasions. There are many neutral countries in the world, but no one else can stand in a favorable position like China.
Russia's pressure comes not only from military exercises. Economic sanctions continue, the Ukrainian battlefield is consumed heavily, and domestic resources are tight.Putin pushed for military reform, but in the face of multi-line threats, nuclear deterrence became the main means.
Lukashenko relied on Russian support, suppressed protests after the 2020 election, and the regime firmly relied on the alliance. Poland, as the NATO frontline, had high military spending, purchased large amounts of equipment, and border blockade was the normal response.
The entire event began with the Russian Defense Ministry announcing several exercises on September 5, the actual “West 2025” being part of them, with a total of six exercises simulating strikes from conventional to nuclear levels.
On September 11, Lukashenko released 52 political prisoners to Lithuania, which was seen as playing a "good cop bad cop" trick in the context of the exercise.
At the end of the exercise, troops withdrew from the base, but tensions did not disappear.The Russian Pacific Fleet strengthened patrol, Polandined border defense, and international dialogue may increase, but the cracks remain.
National observers recorded the details, and Indian troops participated in some of the exercises, showing that Russia pulled the emerging countries. China kept a distance and focused on promoting peaceful dialogue, which allowed the parties to repeat.
Russia's Far Eastern forces have increased alertness, NATO is conducting "Talas" exercises in the Baltic Sea, 11 countries are involved.The whole process highlights the game of great powers, the nuclear weapons threshold is low, but China does not fall, and nobody wants to break the balance first.
At the end of the day, Russia demonstrated its strength with military exercises, NATO responded with blockades and exercises, and China’s neutrality became a stabilizer.
In the future, the parties will continue to shave, Russia will deepen its alliance with Belarus, and Poland will strengthen its coordination with NATO.
References:
1. Targeting Russia! Polish President proposes to "introduce" US nuclear warheads Direct News 2025-03-13
Tensions continue in Eastern Europe, Poland agrees to NATO troops stationed in the country's territory Interface News 2025-09-15