Preliminary
December 18th Beijing The Shandong ForumAttracting the world More than 100 countriesParticipation of representatives of international organizations at the event International influencecan be seen.
The Chinese Defence Minister at this time. The Taiwan Sea ProblemHe made strong statements stating that the Liberation Army was ready at any time. Avoid any external interference.It will not allow the "Taiwan independence" attempt to succeed.
suchWhat is the signal that the public announcement has sent, and why is the US in a hurry to respond? Never to fight."？
With more than 100 countries on the side.
The atmosphere in the conference room is somewhat delicate. More than 100 countriesThe representative, the general defense minister on the table, is delivering a speech, and what he will say next is destined to blow up on the international stage.
"Taiwan belongs to China, that UnquestionablyThe voice just fell, a silence on the scene, followed by the stealing of private speech if there were thoughts.This public statement is not a coincidence.It is important to know that in the past, China’s statement on the Taiwan Sea issue was more in bilateral talks or negotiations. for private occasions.Proceed.
And this choice is made on a multilateral platform like the Shanghai Forum. openly marked.The strategic consideration behind it is worth considering.In a simple parable, it’s like placing the bottom cards directly on the table when playing cards so that everyone can see clearly.
Why do you do this? First of all, statements made on multilateral occasions have a stronger International binding forceSpeaking in the presence of representatives of so many countries is equivalent to having the whole world bear witness.
This is more fragmentary than private communication in the conference room, and more difficult to distort or selectively forget. Right to speak。
For a long time, some countries have always liked to shoot their fingers on China's internal affairs on international occasions, and now the Chinese side is actively expressing its position on international platforms, in fact, is taking back. Right to set topics。Furthermore, the choice of timing is also very particular.
Shortly before the forum, the U.S. took a new move on the Taiwan Sea issue, and even threw the so-called. Taiwan's status remains uncertain"。In this context, China’s public statement is actually a Accurate responseIt has responded to the provocation and sent a clear signal to the international community.
From the reaction of the representatives at the scene, this direct and firm statement clearly produced the expected effect.
From "keeping a low profile" to "being active and promising"
To understand this shift in China’s diplomatic strategy, we have to look behind it. Strength support。Remember 30 years ago? at the time, China's GDP was not yet zero-headed in the United States, and on the international stage it was more to play. LearnerThe role of.
At that time, "keeping a low profile and keeping a low profile" was indeed the wisest choice. But times have changed. In terms of economic aggregate, China is already the second largest economy in the world, and its GDP accounts for more than 18%。
This change is like a person who has grown from a weak teenager to a strong teenager, who has grown stronger and speaks naturally and has a deeper spirit. More importantly, the military strength has risen. advanced equipmentIt's not for show.
From the East Wind series missiles to the hidden fighter jets, from the Navy’s new vessels to the Air Force’s new equipment, the technical level of these “children” has been reached. The world advanced.The level .It’s no wonder that foreign military experts argue that the modernization process of the Chinese military is “far faster than expected.”
But the growth of power is not only caused by military deterrence. The psychological level.of the change.When you have enough power, the performance at the negotiating table will naturally be more pleasant.Like having money in a population pocket, the voice of talking will be louder.
From the perspective of international influence, China “Friends Circle”It is also constantly expanding.The "the belt and road initiative" initiative has received responses from more than 150 countries. What does this mean? It means that on the international stage, there are more and more voices supporting China's position.
Of course, the growth of power also brings new responsibilities.As a responsible big country, China can no longer take care of itself as it did in the past. Immersion in developmentThey want to play a bigger role in international affairs.
It’s like an adult who can’t hide behind his parents anymore, but must take on himself. Social Responsibility。From this perspective, the open statements on the Shandong Forum are actually the reflection of China’s diplomatic maturity.
The US is shifting from “pressure” to “stability”.
Interestingly, in the face of China's tough stance, the reaction of the US was somewhat unexpected. U.S. representative Shi Chande not only did not confront tit-for-tat, but took the initiative to emphasize “The United States should not go to war.”。
This reaction is like on the boxing field, a player just set up an offensive position, but the opponent suddenly said, "Let's not fight, shake hands and talk." Strength comparedChanges have occurred.
In the past, the United States was accustomed to saying nothing in global affairs, other countries could only choose to obey or be silent.But now the situation is different.China has not only the courage to say "no", but also to say "no". Strength。
From an internal point of view, the U.S. policy toward China has also undergone subtle changes. Remember what Hegerseth initially called the Chinese side? In the phone, the U.S. Defense Secretary made it clear that the U.S. “does not seek a conflict with China” and “does not seek a change in Chinese regime.”
Such statements are rarely seen in the past.It is important to know that American politicians have always liked to use "Position of strength"When is it better to proactively speak?This shows that there has been a major adjustment in the assessment of China-US relations within the United States.
Like driving on a steep slope, without stepping on the brakes, you have to drive around. Multiple pressures。The crisis in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, the maintenance of allied relations, all of which require considerable political and military resources.
Under such circumstances, if we confront China on the Taiwan Strait issue again, it will undoubtedly be Not to pay.of the .What’s more, real conflict is not good for anyone.As Schound said, if China and the United States start war, “the world will cease to exist.”
This is not an exaggeration, but a reaction to Age of Nuclear WeaponsAwareness of the consequences of conflict.From an economic point of view, the interdependence between the two economies is still very high.Though there has been a sound of "disconnection" in recent years, the actual operation is far more complex than imagined.
The U.S. business community and Wall Street are aware of this, and they need what they need. stabilityThe relationship between China and the United States, not the confrontation of the sword.
The United States begins "equal dialogue"
From a higher perspective, this scene that took place at the Shanghai Forum is actually one of the profound changes in the international pattern. Reduced。In the past few decades, the international order has basically been a model of "the United States sets rules and other countries implement them".
But now, this unipolar dominance is happening fundamental change。China’s rise is not to overthrow the existing international order, but to make it more just and reasonable.
As in a class, it is not always the leader of the class says one, the other students should also have. The right of speech。Judging from the historical law, the adjustment of relations between major powers is often accompanied by changes in the balance of power. The transformation of Anglo-American relations in the late 19th century and the beginning of 20th century is a typical example.
After the economic power of the United States surpassed Britain, the relationship between the two countries also shifted from competition to cooperation. Of course, the adjustment of the relationship between China and the United States would be more complex than the relationship between the United Kingdom and the United States at the time. Other forcesis also rising.
From the participation in this forum can be seen that the international community is increasingly in need of multilateral dialogue.Representatives from more than 100 countries gathered together, which in itself demonstrates that everyone wants to pass the agreement. Dialogue consultationsto resolve the dispute.
For China, this change is both an opportunity and a challenge. The opportunity lies in that China can play a greater role in international affairs and promote construction Community of Human Destiny。The challenge lies in how to take care of other countries’ concerns while safeguarding their core interests.
From the perspective of dealing with the Taiwan Sea issue, China has demonstrated the wisdom of mature great nations.On the one hand, there is no compromise on principle issues, showing that The bottom line thinking.。On the other hand, there is also room for dialogue. constructive attitude。
This "rational, beneficial and restrained" diplomatic style not only safeguards national dignity, but also promotes regional stability. What will the future international order look like? It can be seen from the window of Xiangshan Forum that multipolarization and multilateralism will become the mainstream.
The relationship between major powers will be more reflected in Competition of cooperationNot a zero-sum game.This is a positive signal to the whole world.
conclusion
As can be seen from the window of Xiangshan Forum, Sino-US relationsThe shift from “zero-sum game” to “controlling differences and seeking coexistence” is not easy.
The future The International OrderWill be more diversified, and relations between major powers will also pay more attention to The Equal DialogueThis change has positive implications for global stability and is worthy of appreciation by all parties.
In the face of this historic change, you think how China and the United States should seize the opportunity and promote relations toward a greater extent. Stable healthThe direction of development?