A cold door broke out in Guatemala’s presidential elections in 2023 and Bernard Arrevalo won in a black horse gesture, the scholar-type politician who had said he wanted to develop relations with China, is sparking a storm in Central American politics.
On August 20, 2023, the results of the Guatemalan presidential election shocked the world: 64-year-old Bernard Arrevaldo 59.12% of the voteDefeat opponent Sandra Torres, becoming the new president of this Central American country.
This election has attracted much attention because Guatemala has long been regarded as an "anti-China fortress", maintaining close relations with the United States and so-called "diplomatic relations" with Taiwan Province. During the election campaign, arevalo publicly stated that he wanted to develop closer relations with China, which is unprecedented in the country's modern political history.
The son of the exile, from the political world, but moved away.
Arévalo's birth was full of political colors. Born in Montevideo, Uruguay, on October 7, 1958, he was born abroad because his family was in political exile at the time.
His father, Juan José Arévalo, was Guatemala’s first elected president (1945-1951) and was hailed as the “father of spiritual socialism.”
During his reign, Arrevaldo pursued a series of progressive policies, including the popularization of education, the improvement of health care and the establishment of social security systems.
However, these reforms violated the interests of large corporations such as United States Fruit Company.In 1954, the CIA planned a coup that overthrew the regime of Arivalo's father, and the entire family was forced to exile overseas.
In his childhood, arevalo traveled to Venezuela, Mexico, Chile and other countries with his family, and didn't return to Guatemala for the first time until he was 15 years old. This exile experience shaped his international vision and understanding of politics.
Arévalo's educational experience is very bright. He received a bachelor's degree in sociology from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel, followed by the University of Utrecht, the Netherlands PhD in Philosophy and Social Anthropology。
He mastered several languages, including Spanish, English, French and Hebrew, which laid a solid foundation for his later diplomatic career.
After graduation, Arievalo entered the field of foreign affairs, serving as Guatemalan Ambassador to Spain and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs.
He has also served in organizations such as international peace organizations, the United Nations and the United States Institute of Peace, and has accumulated rich international experience.
In 2015, Arievalo and a group of intellectuals established the Seed Thinking Center, which in 2017 developed into a political party called the Seed Movement, and formally entered the political sphere.
Election black horse, from silence to reversal victory
At the start of the 2023 Guatemalan presidential election, no one saw AREVALO as a strong competitor. In the first round of voting, he ranked second with 11.80% of votes, far behind former first lady Sandra Torres, who won 15.78% of votes.
Guatemala has long been controlled by the pro-American right-wing government and is called the "backyard" of the United States.
Since the coup planned by the United States in 1954, the country has followed the foreign policy of the United States, including opposing China on the Taiwan issue, and is one of the few countries in the world to maintain so-called "diplomatic relations" with Taiwan Province.
In the second round of the vote, Aristide Approximately 60% of votes.The reaction shocked observers at home and abroad.
His victory reflects the tiredness of the Guatemalan people of traditional political forces.The country has a poverty rate of up to 60%, sharp social contradictions, drug smuggling and gang violence.
Arevalo’s campaign strategy is distinctive, and he has openly said that if he is elected, he will seek to establish diplomatic relations with China on the basis of the “one China” principle and deepen economic and trade cooperation between the two countries.
This position can be called "alien" in Guatemala's traditional political ecology. The country's media and education system have long portrayed China as a threat and strengthened pro-American and anti-China consciousness.
Ariel’s position immediately aroused concerns from the United States and Taiwan, which feared that Guatemala would trigger a chain reaction in Central America if it “turned back” to China.
The United States has stepped up diplomatic pressure on Guatemala, with Secretary of State Blinken publicly saying that the United States may reduce its economic support for Guatemala if Guatemala and China establish diplomatic relations.
After showing signs of hopeful victory, the Guatemalan Supreme Court, at the request of the Prosecutor’s Office, on the grounds of alleged signature falsification, announced the suspension of the legitimate status of the “Seed Movement” party and investigated the eligibility of the candidate.
Some media began to spread false news, saying that Arévalo was a "man of the Communist Party" in an attempt to discredit him and influence the election results. They even accused Arévalo of wanting to turn Guatemala into a "second Venezuela".
In the face of pressure from all sides, Arevalo did not retreat. He pointed out on social media that the allegations were “political persecution” and called on supporters to keep reason and express their views through the rightful path.
Under pressure from the public opinion at home and abroad, the Constitutional Court of Guatemala finally revoked the order to suspend the Seed Movement party and restored Alevallo's eligibility for election.
Taking office as president, the art of balancing internal and external pressure
On January 14, 2024, AREVALO formally took office and began his four-year presidency, but the process itself was full of turmoil and Congressional opposition delayed the vote, postponing the inauguration ceremony until the morning of the 15th.
After taking office, Arévalo adopted a " The two minds.On the one hand, it clearly stated that it will maintain "diplomatic relations" with Taiwan, and on the other hand stressed that it is necessary to actively develop economic and trade cooperation with China.
He demanded the attorney general’s resignation, claiming that the opposition used its powers to embrace corrupt officials, and intended to amend the laws of the attorney general’s office to strengthen control.
In February 2024, Guatemala’s foreign minister expressed hope to develop trade relations with China, stressing that it was not aimed at Taiwan or the United States.
Arévalo's pro-China stance is not a purely ideological choice, but based on real economic considerations. As the second largest economy in the world, China is an important trading partner of Guatemala.
Data show that the bilateral trade volume between China and Guardian will reach nearly in 2022 Five billionChina has become Guatemala’s fifth largest export market.
Compared to other Latin American countries such as Brazil, Argentina and Chile, Guatemala has missed a lot of economic opportunities due to its anti-China policies.
Guatemalan people, especially young voters, are eager to see changes in the country's political structure, and believe that the "pro-American and anti-China" policy is not conducive to national development. They want to establish closer ties with China to get economic benefits.
The future challenge, walking between China and the United States.
The United States is Guatemala’s largest trading partner and has had a significant influence on Guatemala over the past decades through aid and investment.
Conservative forces in the country also blocked his reform agenda. The noise in Congress, and the reform progress was stumbling.
In September 2025, Ariel also announced that Guatemala was prepared to receive up to 150 unaccompanied minors who had been deported by the United States every week without any age limit.
The statement shows his approach to cooperating with the United States on immigration issues, possibly to balance the pressure of developing relations with China.
While Arievalo’s “two-sided bet” strategy appears to meet the demands of the United States and Taiwan, it actually reflects the government’s intention to get out of external control and seek independent diplomacy.
The rise of AREVALO marks the beginning of a new era in Guatemalan politics.In August 2025, he announced that he would set up a natural reserve at the border of the three countries with Belize and Mexico to protect the tropical rainforest that retains the remains of Mayan civilization, demonstrating his determination to promote regional cooperation.
His election reflects the desire of the people of Guatemala for change, a country that has long been in poverty and hopes to get rid of traditional constraints and pursue a more autonomous path of development.
The world's 183 countries have established relations with China, and only a few countries still maintain so-called "state relations" with the Taiwan region.