In the Russian-Ukrainian conflict that lasted for three years, the front is still sticky, the battlefield has long been not the pace of lightning advancement at the time, and the aid from the West has gradually turned out to be weak.

Just as all sides were still looking at the next step, Russia suddenly issued a ¡°wind and rain¡± signal: willing to compromise. those familiar with the Russian rhythm know that this word is not often heard, especially from Foreign Minister Lavrov, but rather like a ¡°diplomatic smoke bomb¡± thrown at the international community.

But what is even more confusing is that behind this statement, there is also Putin's rare disclosure of the existence of 700,000 troops and special arrangements for the "future roles" of these soldiers.

These three things come together, and it¡¯s no coincidence.Russia, what¡¯s the calculator?

700,000 armies: not only can fight, but also "can handle"

In a meeting with parliamentary leaders, Putin personally revealed the number of Russian troops deployed on the Ukrainian battlefield: more than 700,000.This has far exceeded the size of the military force at the beginning of the war, showing the huge resilience of the Russian side in military sources and mobilization.

This huge team includes not only contract soldiers, but also mobilized soldiers and volunteer soldiers, covering almost the entire resource pool of the Russian military system.

But more alarming is the ¡°next plan¡± of the 700,000 people, Putin said clearly, ¡°who are willing and suitable for leadership positions in government agencies¡± will be selected.

Why do you do this? On the one hand, this is an incentive mechanism of "exchanging military exploits for status", which is used to stabilize front-line morale and ensure the loyalty of these people who have been on the battlefield to the state system; On the other hand, it is also creating a brand-new political elite, a new core with "war experience" and "loyalty brand".

This idea is not new. In the Soviet era, military craft was a knocking brick that leads to political highs. But in contemporary Russia, it was the first time that military personnel were introduced to politics on such a large scale. It was not just a complement to the existing political structure, but a profound "elite replacement".

Especially after Putin¡¯s more than 20 years in power, speculation has begun to breathe in Russia about the ¡°post-Putin era¡±, and the ¡°new leaders¡± who came out of the battlefield,, are Putin¡¯s ¡°safe successors¡± for future shifts.

¡°Let¡¯s compromise¡± is not downstairs, but to find yourself downstairs?

At the same time that these military arrangements surfaced, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov also released a rare signal of "willingness to seek compromise on the Ukrainian issue".

He said in public that as long as Russia's "legitimate security interests" are guaranteed, Moscow is willing to consider a compromise solution. Compared with Russia's tough stance in the past year, this statement is a significant change in tone.

Lavrov¡¯s ¡°compromise¡± focuses mainly on three priorities: NATO does not continue to expand east and deploy offensive weapons outside Russia¡¯s borders; safeguards the rights of the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine; and recognizes the established reality of ¡°new regions¡± such as Crimea and Donbass.

More subtly, Lavrov also mentioned that the current U.S. government ¡°understood the complexity of NATO issues¡± and acknowledged that the outcome of the referendum ¡°must be considered¡± in the regions concerned.

This phrase suggests that there may be some degree of "background communication" between the United States and Russia, combined with previous media outbreaks of the news that the United States and Russia have kept secret contacts in third countries, this seemingly tough confrontation may have long opened a low-tone game.

The question then arises: does Russia really want to talk, or does it continue to fight for its own strategic initiative in the name of ¡°compromise¡±?

In reality, the Russian side is facing multiple pressures: long-lasting war, economic sanctions, increased international isolation, coupled with increasing differences within Western countries in aid to Ukraine, especially in the United States around the continuing dispute around the issue of allocations, many European countries are also struggling to balance between budgets and public opinion.

At this time, releasing the "talk too" signal can test the opponent's bottom line, while creating a crack between the United States and Europe.

But this does not mean that Russia is really prepared to compromise at the end. Instead, Lavrov specifically emphasized that "any stable agreement must be based on compromise", which is neutral, and actually throws the responsibility of "not negotiating" on each other. In other words, Russia is willing to talk, but to play according to its origin.

The shadow of power has quietly emerged from the surface.

From the 700,000 army arrangement to Lavrov¡¯s diplomatic loophole, these two seemingly separated clues are actually pointing to a bigger topic: Putin is laying a mattress for future power transfers.

Putin's statement that "some soldiers should succeed the national leadership in the future" is by no means a casual mention. Behind this statement is a deep intervention in the future of Russia's politics. He knows that the biggest risk after a long term in power is not from the outside, but from the internal succession chaos.

So he chose the successor candidates from the ¡°most faithful¡± who were born to die for the country, who had been baptized in the war, and who were incorporated into the system through special mechanisms.

Such an approach has multiple benefits. First, loyalty is guaranteed, and these people have a natural sense of identity with Putin's personal and war strategy; Second, the political foundation is stable, and transforming military honor into political capital can effectively curb potential dissatisfaction and turmoil; Third, by releasing the signal of "compromise", a relatively moderate external environment will be created to create a time window and public opinion space for power transfer.

This is not the first time Russia has taken this path. As early as the end of the Soviet Union, Andropov selected Gorbachev as his political successor from the KGB system. Now, Putin is trying to create his own "red succession echelon" from the commanders and participants of "special military operations".

The diplomatic ¡°leash¡±, to some extent, is to win a strategic buffer for the internal political transition. Even if it is just a ¡°armistice¡± or a ¡°freeze of conflict¡±, it can also provide breathing space for the regime transition. In Putin¡¯s view, the most important thing is not whether to win the war completely, but to ensure the continuation of the regime and the stability of the line.

Lavrov¡¯s ¡°compromising¡± statements, the 700,000-strong army back-to-back arrangements, and Putin¡¯s political layout are not each of them political, but a combination of the Kremlin¡¯s attempts to play.

From the overall perspective, Russia, Ukraine, and the three sides of the West have been weakened.Russia is under sanctions and military pressure, Ukraine's counterattack is slow, foreign aid is tightened, and inside the US-European camp is also uncertain between "continuing to burn money" and "toward domestic affairs".

But it is not easy to really get to the negotiating table. Especially on the issues of Crimea and the four eastern states, there is a huge gap between the two sides, and mutual trust is almost zero. This war has evolved into a protracted war, and what is behind it is the reshaping of the geopolitical structure.

At the moment, Russia's "willing to compromise" signals may be just a test, but behind it, is a bigger political project is shaping.Putin thinks not only how this war ends, but who should lead Russia after him and how to continue his political legacy.

The crisis may not have ended yet, but the new chapter has quietly begun to turn pages.The uncertainty of the future remains high, but it can be assured that the Kremlin¡¯s calculation has never stopped ¨C only this time, under them, is a larger chess.

References:

Putin: The number of Russian troops fighting on the front line exceeds 700,000-2025-09-19 15:48 Beijing News Network