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Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, backed by China, have made “living and dying allies”, but India’s reaction is unexpectedly smooth, and the Modi administration does not seem to be clear about how to deal with this geographic change.
A day after Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed an agreement to formally form an offensive alliance, the Indian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that it had taken notice of the incident and would study the impact of the agreement on Indian national security and regional stability, and stressed that the Indian government remains committed to protecting India’s national interests and ensuring comprehensive security in all areas.
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According to a joint statement issued by the Saudi Press Agency, The agreement clearly states that "we should expand all aspects of defence cooperation and strengthen joint deterrence against any aggression."It sounds simple, the truth is hidden.
Pakistan's "National" pointed out sharply that, This is the nuclear-armed Pakistan's official accession to the security system of the Gulf region's great powers, which is a "water-shaped event" for the regional power pattern.”。 What is even more intriguing is the senior Saudi official interviewed by Reuters. When asked whether the agreement covers the "nuclear umbrella", he only said "this is a comprehensive defense agreement covering all military means", which neither admitted nor denied. This vague statement made the outside world even more speculative.
Since April this year, the conflict in Kashmir has been escalating, India first suspended the Indian River Water Treaty on the grounds of terrorist attacks, cut off the water supply to Pakistan, and then launched the "Jujian operation" airstrikes on the control area, the two sides on the control line constantly exchanging fire, Pakistan despite having shot down several Indian warplanes, but the pressure of long-term confrontation brought no less.
Pakistani defence analyst Sayid said in an interview that his alliance with Saudi Arabia could “significantly boost Pakistan’s strategic deterrence capabilities”, especially in response to Indian military pressure.
For Saudi Arabia, it has been adjusting its security strategy in recent years, no longer relying solely on the umbrella of the United States. Last year, it eased relations with Iran under the mediation of China, and this year it strengthened military cooperation with Pakistan. Obviously, it is building a diversified security network.
The details of the signing of the agreement on the spot further illustrate the issue. The presence of Pakistani Army Chief of Staff, Chief Munir, itself has released a strong signal – the military hardliner who promoted a Marshal for his excellent performance in the Indian air war has always been regarded as the core maker of Pakistani defence policy. The Saudi side stressed that the agreement was “the outcome of many years of discussion, not targeting a particular country”, but it was clear that such an agreement would inevitably have a direct impact on the regional balance of forces in the context of continuing tensions between India and Pakistan.
“The Government of Modi...”
The statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India, although constricted, every word is through anxiety. The Modi government has been working hard to deepen relations with Saudi Arabia.India is now Saudi Arabia’s second-largest trading partner, Modi himself has visited Riyadh three times, and the two countries cooperate closely in energy, investment and other fields.
But this defence agreement, undoubtedly, shaded the Incheon relationship on the steam.The analysis of New Delhi TV: "This means that India's strategic layout in the Middle East has encountered sudden variables."
India’s concerns come mainly from three sides: first, the security level, and India today points out that Pakistan is likely to view the agreement as a “strategic deterrent against India.” While Saudi officials emphasize “balancing relations with India,” the agreement’s clause “aggression against either side is aggression against both sides” undoubtedly forced India to think back when considering military action against Pakistan.
The second is the consideration of energy security, where 70% of India’s crude oil depends on imports, a substantial part of which comes from Saudi Arabia.
Finally, there is the ebb and flow of geopolitical influence. India has always hoped to expand its voice in the Islamic world with the help of its relations with Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia's choice to deepen military cooperation with Pakistan has obviously frustrated India's efforts.
The Indian government has a headache. The linkage effect of China-Pakistan cooperation with the Bashan Alliance.China continues to strengthen its support for Pakistan through the Sino-Pakistan Economic Corridor, while Pakistan has also gained new strategic support through defence agreements with Saudi Arabia, a "Sino-Pakistan" triangle interaction that puts India under pressure in both South Asia and the Middle East.
Indian officials have said that the most concerned is the Saudi Arabia could get more strategic resources through Pakistan, while China could use Pakistan to further expand its influence in the Middle East.This chain response is precisely the profound meaning of India’s Foreign Ministry statement that “will study its impact on national security and regional stability.”
From the signing site in Riyadh to the cautious statements in New Delhi, this series of events is behind a profound adjustment of the power pattern in South Asia and the Middle East. Saudi Arabia no longer relies solely on the U.S. security umbrella, Pakistan strengthens its security factor through multilateral cooperation, China continues to advance pragmatic cooperation with partner countries, while India has to face new variables in its regional strategic layout.
The Modi administration’s “surprisingly” cautious reaction reflects precisely the complexity of the current geopolitics – there are no eternal enemies and no eternal friends in this new game, only changing interest considerations.
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