The contents of this article are written with authoritative materials and personal opinions. The source of the literature has been marked at the end of the article, so please know.
No excitement, today's Europe, can be said to be five-taste.
In the early morning of September 10, 2025, Polish border air defense system suddenly detects unidentified drone swarm intrusion, the Polish Air Force quickly dispatched, joined forces with Dutch F-35 fighter jets, Italian early warning aircraft and US tankers to intercept, and successfully shot down more than ten cross-border military aircraft.
Poland subsequently indicated that the aircraft belonged to Russia, which triggered an emergency military mobilization by NATO member states, France, Germany and other countries have entered the Eastern European front.
After the incident, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk directly quoted Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, demanding urgent consultation among allies, he even publicly stated that this is "the closest moment to full-scale conflict since World War II."
The Polish military confirmed it had recovered the wreckage of at least seven drones, as well as parts of an unidentified missile, scattered for hundreds of kilometers.
Russian President Peskov said on 15 September: NATO is actually fighting with Russia, which is obvious, and no additional evidence is needed.
At the 2025 Brussels Summit, NATO Secretary-General Rutte called on member states to adopt a more active "wartime thinking" and increase military spending to 3% to 5% of GDP.
U.S. military expert William Shriver put forward a prediction that shook the world on social media platforms as early as the end of 2024. If a conventional war breaks out between NATO and China and Russia, NATO's missiles, warplanes and ships will be almost exhausted within a monthMilitary power would be completely weakened and could not be restored in a decade.
Schleifer was not the kind of expert who loved the wind, he was a soldier in his early years, specialized in military analysis after his retirement, and wrote a lot of reports about the confrontation of the great powers.
He prefers to speak with data, taking the conflict in Ukraine as an example, and calculating NATO’s arms inventory and production speed.
Shriver pointed out that NATO's precision guided weapons, Including U.S. “Tax” cruise missiles and “standard” air defense missilesA large amount of ammunition has been consumed in the conflict in Ukraine, and the existing inventories are on the lookout.
The annual production of Tomahawk missiles in the United States is only Approximately 500And a high-intensity war may need to consume hundreds of units a day.
European countries have weaker missile production capacitiesProduction lines in Germany and France rely largely on American technology, and it is difficult to fill this gap in the short term.
In contrast, Russia and China have high missile production, advanced air defense systems, and can quickly counterattack.
In the first half of 2025, the Russian Defense Minister said in a speech: Their missile production has increased significantly, enough to cope with long-term confrontation.。
In the air force, NATO has advanced fighter jets such as F-35 and F-16.But in the face of advanced air defense systems and fighter jets in China and Russia, there are obvious disadvantages.
China's J-20 Invisible FighterBy the middle of 2025. More than 200 planes.Service in Russia. Su-57 fighter aircraftThe Western Five Generations won’t lose in mobility and electronic warfare.
These equipment, coupled with drones and high-speed hypersonic missiles, are sufficient to weaken NATO’s superiority in the air.
Shriver analyzed that after a month of war, NATO could lose hundreds of aircraft, repair parts and reliance on global chains, and the air force’s superiority would soon be lost.
NATO’s air force is also facing distant bases and vulnerable logistics supply lines, while Russia and China can quickly and precisely hit NATO’s airports and command centers with weapons such as hypersonic missiles.
In the Navy, NATO’s aircraft carrier battle group is powerful, but limited in number.The U.S. Ford-class aircraft carrier costs up to $10 billion, and the construction cycle takes seven years.
The YJ-18 anti-ship missiles carried by China's Type 055 destroyers and the "caliber" cruise missiles carried by Russia's Kilo-class submarines are sufficient to pose a great threat to the NATO fleet.
Shriver believes that within a month, NATO may lose dozens of main ships.
It takes seven to ten years to rebuild an aircraft carrier, and the cost is extremely high, and NATO’s shipbuilding industry has shrunk, and the capacity to rebuild is extremely weak in the face of this enormous loss.
NATO’s logistical security is markedly lacking due to its reliance on a long supply line across the Atlantic. NATO equipment and ammunition supplies are vulnerable to threats from Chinese and Russian submarines and long-range missiles.
China controls a lot of key raw materials, such as rare earth, and it’s hard for NATO to disconnect.。
Of the 12 key raw materials needed by NATO's military industry, seven are dominated by China, including vital resources such as rare earths and lithium.
In contrast, China has efficient ports and railway networks, and military supplies can be quickly transported from the mainland to the frontline, while Russia, drawing on the experience of the conflict in Ukraine, has optimized the tactical use of low-cost drones.
China’s drones performed well on the battlefield, taking the Changzhou-modified Tsinghua-type drone for example, which costs just a few thousand dollars, but can destroy millions of dollars worth of enemy armored vehicles.
Russia's "Lancet" drone is also known for its high efficiency and low cost. This advantage of asymmetric combat makes NATO's high-priced equipment seem stretched.
Russia's actual combat experience accumulated on battlefields such as Syria has also enabled the Russian army to maintain a high degree of combat effectiveness.
China’s industrial advantage has further aggravated NATO’s trouble.China's manufacturing industry ranks first in the world, its missile factory is underground, and its output is stable.
In the renewal of military equipment, China has shown amazing production capabilities, and new types of equipment such as sixth-generation warplanes, electromagnetic launch aircraft carriers, and bipartisan attack ships are constantly being unveiled.
The de-industrialization trend in the United States has weakened its manufacturing capacity. The annual output of F-35 fighter jets is only over a hundred, which cannot meet the battlefield needs.
Although Russia’s weapons reserves are not as large as they were during the Cold War, its nuclear submarines and hypersonic weapons remain a major threat to NATO.
The shadow of nuclear weapons has always overshadowed the whole battlefield.Both NATO and China have nuclear weapons, which means that any party in a conventional war may use nuclear weapons as a last resort.
Although the existence of this nuclear deterrent reduces the risk of full-scale conflict, it also complicates the situation of conventional warfare.
Russia is the world’s leading nuclear power. Borey-class nuclear submarines can carry multiple intercontinental missiles and have a range covering all of Europe and North America。
The number of nuclear warheads in China is estimated by the U.S. Department of Defense to reach 1,000 by 2030, enhancing its strategic balance capabilities.
Schleifer explained that reconstruction is not an easy thing, it takes money, technology and time.。 It takes time for missile factories to expand production. There are only about 100 fighter production lines a year, and it takes more than seven years to build aircraft carriers.
Economically, the cost is huge, NATO member states need to add more than 3% of their military spending to GDP, but the European economy is down, and people oppose cuts in welfare.
Schleifer warned that NATO will not be able to maintain its current deterrence during a decade of recovery, creating uncertainty for global security.。
The damage caused by war is not only reflected in military losses, but will also seriously affect the global economy, leading to supply chain disruptions and soaring energy prices.
In September 2025, NATO will hold military exercises at the same time as Russia. The scale of Russia's "West-2025" exercise has been significantly reduced, making it much lower-key.
However, NATO's exercise in Poland is called the largest in history.
On September 13, Poland announced the complete closure of the land port with Belarus, which caused the operation of Central European flights to be interrupted.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian made it clear that the China-Europe train is an important project of China-EU cooperation and conforms to the common interests of both sides. China urges Poland to take practical measures to ensure the smooth flow of trains.
The game between NATO and Russia is no longer limited to the confrontation of conventional military forces, and various emergencies are pushing the situation into an emotional trajectory.
References:
Peskov: NATO is at war with Russia 2025-09-16 09:13 PM
2. "" European companies complain again: China will give rare earths "" 2025-09-17 11:27 | Source: Observer.com
Putin in military costume to attend Russian-White “West 2025” joint military exercises 2025-09-17 07:07