In September 2025, global supply chains and geographical patterns will mutate. South Korean President Lee openly stated that he was "standing on the side of the United States" and at one time exploded the global public opinion field.South Korea's foreign trade volume has grown for three consecutive years, and in 2024 China and South Korea's trade volume has broken 2.33 trillion yuan, accounting for about 5.2% of China's total foreign trade volume.
South Korea’s choice.
The exclusive interview with Lee Jae-myung published by Time magazine in September has become the focus of global attention. Lee Jae-myung personally explained at the Yongsan Presidential Palace that South Korea must firmly choose the United States in the global supply chain and security architecture, emphasizing that "under the new global order, South Korea will stand with the United States."
The reaction in South Korea is complex. In the first half of 2025, South Korea's export dependence remains high, with more than 75% of high-end chips, automotive parts, and smart manufacturing equipment deeply tied to the Chinese market.According to the latest report released by the South Korean Institute of Economic Research, if South Korea's economic ties with China are suddenly weakened, GDP will grow or fall by 1.2 percentage points.
South Korea's Foreign Minister Zhao Zhao visited China in September to try to improve China-Korea relations and invite China's senior officials to attend the APEC summit, but almost at the same time, Li in the international media "choose a side team" and put South Korea's diplomacy into a high "steel rope effect" - the contradiction between cooperation with China and U.S. security commitments is increasingly prominent.
The picture of the Oval Office of the White House on August 25th is still vivid in my mind. Trump raised the issue of land ownership of U.S. military bases to Lee Jae-myung, and even suggested that South Korea "transfer the land used by U.S. military stationed in South Korea to U.S. ownership".Li reacted with ease: "The United States has been using it for free for years, and if it really belongs to the United States, it will pay real estate taxes."
Supply Chain and Security Commitments
South Korea’s interests with the United States go far beyond diplomatic discourse. On August 24, Li visited the United States to launch a new round of negotiations on a South-U.S. trade agreement. In the end, South Korea pledged to invest more than $350 billion in the United States over the next five years, to purchase an additional $100 billion in energy products in exchange, and the United States agreed to lower the “peer-to-peer tariffs” on South Korea from 25% to 15%.
But not everything goes well with water. The Financial Times that the South Korean government has rejected some of Washington’s trade demands.Lee said: “The U.S. demands are extremely tough, and I will be impeached if the list is fully received.”This statement highlights the difficult balance between the two major economies.
South Korea's domestic economy is concerned that the US is increasing pressure on tariffs and supply chain restructuring.In early 2025, South Korea's semiconductor exports to the United States slowed, and car exports were more volatile due to U.S. "native procurement priority" policies.The South Korean Institute of Modern Economics warned that supply chain shocks had "irreversible structural impacts" on South Korea's manufacturing industry.
China responded with calm restraint. On August 27, China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiangkun made it clear that China-Korea relations "spring from common interests, are not targeted at third parties and should not be influenced by third-party factors."China continues to call on South Korea to jointly safeguard regional peace and stability and to push cooperation from economic, trade, science and technology and culture to new heights.
“Bridge” or “Bridge”.
In 2025, when the game between China and the United States continues to escalate, South Korea's "bridge" theory has been repeatedly pushed to the forefront. In an exclusive interview, Lee Jae-myung repeatedly mentioned that South Korea should avoid becoming the "frontier of confrontation", let alone return to the old road of "relying on the United States for security and China for economy". South Korea hopes to continue to play the role of the "bridge" between the East and the West in the new geopolitical structure, but the knots at both ends of the "bridge" are being pulled more and more tightly.
During his visit to China, South Korea's foreign minister, Zhao Zhao, held in-depth consultations with Foreign Minister Wang Yi on issues such as North Korea's nuclear, bilateral economic and trade, and regional security. China's position is clear: the development of China-Korea relations should not be subject to external interference and should not be allowed to become a tool for third-party games.。 South Korea tried to strive for more economic initiative with the help of APEC platform, but the squeeze of the external environment put the stability of the "bridge" to the test.
Conservatives emphasize “strengthening the US-Korean alliance”, advocating to comply with the U.S.-led global supply chain system; progressives call for “autonomous diplomacy” and opposition to unilateral dependence.In September 2025, several South Korean think tanks jointly issued a report warning that if South Korea completely turned to the U.S., the power of speech in the East Asian region will be continuously diluted, “becoming the American adverse rather than strategic protagonist.”
The Double Game of Economy and Security
South Korea's commitment to the United States is not without a realistic basis. In 2024, China-Korea trade amounted to RMB 2.33 trillion, South Korea's export share to China has always been above 25%. But since 2023, after the United States implemented chip export control, South Korea's high-tech enterprises faced the pressure of the US "second choice one", Samsung, SK Healy and other leading enterprises had to accelerate the layout of U.S. indigenous factories.
South Korean government data revealed that South Korea's exports of U.S. semiconductors increased by 15% in the first half of 2025, but the exports to China fell by 5% in the same period.The risk of a supply chain breakdown has forced South Korean enterprises to accelerate diversification, but excessive reliance on the U.S. market has also left South Korea more uncertain about return on investment and industrial upgrading.
Li has repeatedly publicly stated that consolidating the US-Korean alliance is "the trend", but safeguarding economic and trade and humanitarian ties with China is equally impossible. he stressed that South Korea "will not completely oppose China", and must maintain the relationship between the two countries at the "appropriate level".
South Korea's multilateral diplomatic attempts are also continuing. Faced with the continued tension in the security situation on the Korean Peninsula, South Korea actively participates in the trilateral security dialogue between the United States, Japan and South Korea, while maintaining communication with Beijing on issues such as the DPRK nuclear issue and regional security.During his visit to China, the two sides reiterated that China and South Korea will promote the "sustainable, healthy and stable development" of the bilateral strategic partnership.
South Korea's role in restructuring the global order
The global landscape is entering a period of deep reshaping. The U.S.-led supply chain restructuring and technological "disconnection" process has accelerated, and the East Asian region has become the core area of the role of major powers.South Korea’s role choices have a direct impact on the geological stability of Northeast Asia and the security of the global industrial chain.
In a report released in September by the Asian-Pacific Policy Institute, the authoritative think tank pointed out that if South Korea completely turned to the United States, it would lose its strategic dividend as a "hub country" between China and the United States, and China-Korea economic and trade cooperation would fall to a new low in recent years. At the same time, South Korea's influence in the global multilateral mechanism would also be weakened, making it difficult to export "bridge countries" to the outside world.
The real pressures in South Korea cannot be ignored. In September 2025, South Korea's unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and the youth unemployment situation was particularly severe. High prices and rising energy costs have caused Korean society to strongly question the policy direction of "security for economy"In the "election" process of the Chinese government, Li must both respond to the economic demands of the domestic people and balance security and diplomatic risks.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry has repeatedly warned that if South Korea uses bilateral relations as a code for the US-China game, it will inevitably affect regional stability and its own interests.
South Korea's Choices and the Global Future
South Korea's national strategy is at a crossroads. Lee Jae-myung's public statement that "South Korea will stand by the United States in terms of global order" is undoubtedly a high-risk and high-weight "showdown". Can the commitment to the United States be exchanged for long-term security and interests? Will there be irreparable cracks in relations with China? Global public opinion and regional countries are paying close attention.
The reshaping of the global supply chain and the violent turmoil in the geopolitical structure have made South Korea's role as a "bridge" challenge unprecedented. Such as How to find a balance between economic interests and security commitments, how to maintain strategic autonomy in the game of great powers, test the wisdom and endurance of South Korea at every step.
Every diplomatic negotiation, every economic decision, will profoundly affect the direction of the Northeast landscape and the global industrial chain.
Li: South Korea stands on the side of the United States, but must properly handle relations with China
2025-09-18 16:25 · Observer Network