The Russian-Ukrainian war has been going on now, for more than three years, since Russia launched a special military operation on February 24, 2022, the conflict has shattered the whole of Eastern Europe. Many people think it’s just Ukraine and Russia, but it’s not. If Russia really prevailed on the battlefield and won, then the surrounding countries can be troubled. Like the dominoes, the first is shattered, and the rear row must follow. Especially the three, Moldova, Poland and Romania, their geographical position is too sensitive, economically dependent, and politically stuck in the middle between NATO and Russia. If the war is over, Russian influence expands, the sovereignty and stability of these countries are suspended.
Moldavia, which is a small country located in the middle of Ukraine and Romania, has a land area of more than 30,000 square kilometers and a population of less than three million. Its history is rough, beginning in the 14th century, it was controlled by the Ottoman Empire, the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union in turn. In 1940 it was annexed by the Soviet Union, and only after the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 it became independent. There are a lot of problems after independence, especially in the left bank of the Dniester River, where the population is mostly Russian and Ukrainian, in 1992 it became independent, the so-called Republic of the Dniester River coast, and now Russia has more than a thousand and fifty hundred people in the station. If Russia won in Ukraine, this could be the next hotspot. Russia could
If Ukraine is defeated, the trade line is broken, and Moldova’s GDP loses more than 10 percent. After the outbreak of the war in 2022, Moldova has been severely injured, energy prices doubled, inflation rates once up to 30 percent. Russia is also pressured by natural gas supplies, and parts of the supply are cut by the end of 2022, resulting in Moldova’s winter electricity shortage. Politically, Moldova’s pro-European government wants to join the European Union, but domestic pro-Russia forces are strong, if Russia is strong, these forces will surge and split the movement. International organizations like the European Union and the United States have given assistance, but not sufficiently stable. If Russia advances, Moldova may face territorial division, sovereignty is lost, and the economic disc collapses, just like Georgia’s South
From the 10th century to the 18th century, it was divided, hit by Germany and the Soviet Union during the Second World War in the 20th century, with heavy losses. Now Poland is a member of NATO and the European Union, the economy is strong in Eastern Europe, the GDP exceeds trillions. But it is too close to Russia, Belarus is on the edge, it is Russia's Iron Belt ally. If Russia wins in Ukraine, Poland's military pressure comes up immediately. Russia may strengthen its deployment in Kaliningrad and Belarus, engage in military exercises, Poland must spend a lot of money to build a defense line. After the war in 2022, Poland has spent hundreds of millions to aid Ukraine, send arms and refugees, and the domestic finances are now tight. If it is Russia's
If Russia retaliates, the supply is cut, the Polish winter is sad. Politically, the Polish government has a strong anti-Russian position, but there are pragmatists in the country to talk to Russia. If the war is over, the Russian strength, the internal part of Poland is escalated, the government may change, the diplomacy turns to neutral, then NATO's eastern wing is weak. From the strategic point of view, Poland is at the forefront of NATO, if Russia is at the bottom, Poland may be the first to be hit. Biden said, if Russia wins, it will continue to push to the west, Poland is the first to push. Economically, Poland's exports depend on the EU market, the war can overflow, supply chains, inflation up, growth slowed. In the long run, Poland is un
Romania is the same situation, it is on the Black Sea edge, its strategic location is crucial. There is a history from the Roman Empire period, the unified kingdom of the 19th century, the 20th century has been greatly influenced by the Soviet Union, and is now a member of NATO. Romania and Russia have territories old accounts, like the island of snakes, what, but also the ethnic issues. If Russia won in Ukraine, the Black Sea became a lake of Russia, the navy and ports of Romania are threatened. Russia can strengthen its deployment from Crimea, block it, and the energy imports of Romania can be bypassed, the cost doubled. It is mainly dependent on Russian natural gas, although it is looking for an alternative, but it is difficult to escape in the short term.
After the 2022 war, Romania helped Ukraine, received millions of refugees, and economic pressure was great. Politically, Romania is pro-European, but there are nationalist forces in the country, if Russia is pressured, these forces may pro-Russia, the government shake. Romania also helped Ukraine export food, go to the port of Constantinople, if Russia's retaliation, the port is a problem. In the long run, if Romania is infiltrated by Russian influence, sovereignty weakened, the economy declines, it may be civil unrest. The EU has given support, but Russia's hybrid warfare, like cyber attacks and propaganda, Romania cannot defend. On the Black Sea strategy, Romania is the South wing of the North, if it is shaken, the whole Balkans is messy.
These three countries have common risks, both in Eastern Europe, where history has been controlled by the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union, and now want to rely on NATO and the EU to disconnect. But if Russia wins Ukraine, military strength and more diplomatically weak, it can do business with economic leverage, military deterrence and internal infiltration. Moldova is weakest, small and easily annexed; Poland is stronger but at the forefront; Romania is in the Black Sea, energy and trade are vulnerable. From a geographical point of view, it is like a chain, Ukraine falls, Moldova shakes ahead, Poland and Romania follow.
Economically, they rely on Ukraine's trade and energy. If there is chaos, unemployment and inflation will rise, and society will be chaotic. Politically, pro-Russian forces are on the rise and EU integration is blocked. The international community has to help, but there are differences within the United States and the European Union, and the aid is unstable. If something happens to these countries, the entire European security architecture will collapse and NATO's credibility will be lost. Russia's goal is to restore its sphere of influence. If it succeeds, Eastern Europe will return to the Cold War pattern.