Preliminary
Called the “democracy lighthouse” of the United States, the president has frequently threatened to announce his capital. State of emergencyWashington, which claims "allied cooperation", turns its head to Japan for "no recognition of Palestine". Ultimatum。
Over 140 countriesThe Palestinian state has been recognized, but the United States demands allies to go backward. Democratic resistanceFederal takeover, international Allies face tough choicesTrump’s authority is facing internal and external crashes.
When the “free world leaders” began to rely Threats and coercion, is this a manifestation of strength or Debilitating exposureWhat is changing in the global order?
State of Emergency Becomes 'All-Power Key', How Crazy is Trump's Power Game
Let’s start by saying what this “emergency” really is.
Supposedly, this is an emergency tool in the hands of the president, and it is only used when the country encounters major events. But here in Trump, it has simply become The All-Powered Key。
Whatever you want to do first say "emergency". On September 15, D.C. Mayor Bowser just said that he would not cooperate with immigration law enforcement. Trump immediately spoke on the Truth Social The ugly word.: If you don't cooperate, there will be a national emergency, and the federal government will directly take over the capital.
Think of a president threatening to take his own capital, which is magical enough to hear.
The key is, This is not the first time.。
11 times in 8 months, Trump's frequency of using emergency powers is that of his predecessor 3 timesApril tariff war, state of emergency; border wall construction, state of emergency.
Now the internal affairs are not obedient, or emergency.This is where the "emergency" is, clearly is “Normality”Yeah, I've got it. When the National Emergency Act was established in 1976, it was originally intended to enable the president to respond quickly in times of crisis.
Obama spent eight years 13 times, Biden 4 years 12 times, and Trump’s first term. 76 times。
Now the second term is only a few months, has been more than 10 times. this frequency, simply turning the "emergency" into "day to day".
What’s worse, every time Trump cries out “emergency,” Congress can only stand on the sidelines. The president can mobilize federal resources, and even the military, to bypass heavy scrutiny.
The data in Washington, D.C., is telling. After federal agents came in, they arrested in just a few weeks Hundreds ofViolent crime has decreased by more than 20 percent.
But at the price? Federal spending has increased as a result 4.5 billion dollarsLocal self-government is severely weakened.This practice, like hitting mosquitoes with cannons, has the effect, and the side effects are even greater.
From'world leader 'to'threat expert', how has the logic of American power changed
Let's talk about the deep logic behind this.
Why is Trump so obsessed with the “emergency state”? Power AnxietyIt is curious.
Harvard Professor Allison is very good at analyzing: Anxiety syndrome of declining hegemony.。 The more you feel that your influence is declining, the more you have to use tough measures to prove that you are still the "boss".
Just like the old champion in the boxing ring, his physical strength is not as good as before, and he can only rely on harder punches to maintain deterrence.
You see, the mayor of Washington at home dares to openly resist, and Japan abroad begins on the Palestinian issue. "Small accounts."。
The British Trilogy persuade Tokyo to recognize Palestine, which was previously unthinkable.
Allies no longer obey unconditionally, and opponents no longer fear threats.Trump’s authority is challenged in both the battlefields at home and abroad. Trump’s reaction is typical: since it’s not soft, it’s hard.
On September 10, Conservative activist Kirk was shot and Trump immediately ordered the nation's flag to drop in mourning, saying the gunman was brainwashed by leftist information. “Good students”。
Speaking of the export, the Democrats blasted the pot, saying Trump was throwing the pot, shifting the line of sight.
But Trump doesn't care, what he wants is this effect: using the sad card to make excuses for his tough policy. Vice President Vance was even more ruthless, taking over Kirk's live program and publicly attacking left-wing groups.
They say they encourage violence and threaten Trump's "emergency state."The combination kicked down with a clear purpose: to bring political differences. "Safety"To make the voice of opposition appear “not patriotic.”
Georgetown University professor Mearsheimer hit the nail on the head: This is The Old Detective Trap.When hegemony feels threatened, it tends to overreact and ultimately accelerate its own decline.
When Allies Start ‘Calculating’, Where Are The Fractions In The U.S. Hegemony System?
And then it is said that this tough policy is emerging. The antiphageal effect.。
Homeland, Washington exploded thousands of people march, the mayor of Chicago directly said Trump would “Destroy this country.”。
The Pew Research Center finds, 62%The American people are worried about the excessive expansion of the presidential power, and even within the Republican Party there is a whisper.
The democratic balanced brake system is failing, and the president’s power is like a wild horse.
The international side is more interesting.
Japan is pushed to the corner of the wall. More than 200 membersThey jointly supported the recognition of Palestine, and people protested loudly. However, the government was afraid that the United States would "get stuck" and could only make an ambiguous statement.
On September 16, the United States directly pressured Tokyo through diplomatic channels not to recognize Palestine at the UN General Assembly. “Rethinking Japanese relations”。
Shigeru Ishiba weighed it again and again and decided to postpone it. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that it would first assess regional stability.
The EU directly passed the resolution, considering recognition of Palestine, and French President Emmanuel Macron was the first to speak out.
On September 11, France's foreign ministers also called on Japan not to hesitate, but Tokyo made a fine calculation: the US-Japanese security treaty was in hand, and the economy relied on the US market. Can't afford to be offended。
Think of the Japanese exports of cars and electronics, and the U.S. tariffs can blow up the economy of Tokyo.The Arab countries are even more angry, Qatar convened a summit condemned.
It's like a monitor always threatening classmates, and finally the classmates start to connect in series, American “Friends Circle”They are quietly re-washing.
The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Boris Borreli, said on September 18 that he would consider taking action against U.S. pressure on the Palestinian issue. “Symbolic sanctions”。
The Arab League was more direct, announcing the suspension of three cooperation agreements with the United States.
Harsh policy’s ‘refactor’: what process Trump is accelerating
Finally, the direction in which all this is directed.
Trump's double-hard strategy, on the surface, is showing strength, but in reality it is Accelerating the relative decline of American hegemony。
The midterm elections in 2026The Brookings Institute predicts that a continuing state of emergency could lead to institutional changes in the United States.
Local autonomy has been weakened for a long time, and the power of the president has been expanding, which is not the proper state of a healthy * country.
At the international level, the process of multipolarization is accelerating.
Fatah and Britain joined forces to promote the establishment of a Palestinian state, with Russia and China working closely on the other side, and even "non-allied" countries such as India are rethinking their diplomatic balance.
The American moment.The more frequently Trump uses the "emergency state", the more exposed the vulnerability of the U.S. system.
When France and Germany deal with similar problems, they all negotiate with parliaments, thus avoiding excessive concentration of administrative power.
In contrast, the United States' approach is particularly Alternative.。 The international community began to question: Can a country whose president can declare a state of emergency at any time be regarded as an example for *?
The deeper problem is the unsustainability of this policy path.
Threats and coercion can only be controlled for a while, but not for a lifetime. When allies begin to "settle accounts", when people begin to question, when the international community begins to isolate, Change is inevitable.。
History has shown us that regimes that rely excessively on coercion tend to move toward isolation.
From Nixon's Watergate Incident to the present, the polarization of American politics has become more and more serious. Trump's approach is to aggravate this division, not bridge it.
when Power becomes a burden, threat becomes a jokeThe real test has just begun.
conclusion
Trump’s double hardness is essentially a decline in hegemony. “Fake voice”The more frequent the use of coercive measures, the more exposed the intrinsic institutional anxiety.
History tells us that regimes that rely too much on threats often move towards isolation. When allies begin “Accounting”When people start to question, A time of change.It is not far.
In the face of such an America, how should countries in the world respond? Do you think the future of multipolarity will be better?