The friction began, the market declined.
Australia and Vietnam have been at odds with China in recent years, originally for some geopolitical matters, but as a result, their own economies couldn't bear it first. Since Morrison came to power in 2018, Australia has always followed the United States and pointed fingers at China internationally. In April 2020, they publicly shouted to investigate the origin of the new crown, and now they stabbed a hornet's nest.
Since May, China has imposed an anti-dumping duty of 80.5 percent on Australia's Damascus, and also restricted the import of beef and coal. Fruit exports have not escaped, although there is no direct tax increase, but customs procedures are delayed, cherries, grapes and these fresh goods can not be sold out. In the past, China bought more than 90 percent of Australian cherry exports, now orders are gone, and fruit farmers can only look.
In 2020, in the South China Sea issue, they spoke three-way to China’s South China Sea activities at the ASEAN conference, and border trade followed up with tensions.Together with the epidemic, the shore was linked, the lilies, the dragon eyes and these fruits could not be overcome. Vietnam’s fruit exports to China accounted for 60 percent, relying on the Chinese market to eat, now a shell, and the southern fruit garden mango and granite build up like a mountain.
In the second half of 2020, Vietnam's spinach exports to China decreased by 30%, and those days in Guangdong province were sad. Both countries wanted to find other buyers, Australia targeted Southeast Asia and the Middle East, Vietnam also tried to push the US market, but why has China such a big appetite?
The Australian government was also optimistic at the time, thinking that it could diversify the risk, resulting in the total export of cherries in 2021 was only 260 tons, much lower than before the epidemic.
In fact, this is not just a matter of fruit. Australia’s wine inventory climbed to 2.1 billion liters in 2021, the price of grapes collapsed, only a few hundred Australian dollars per ton. Vietnam’s dragon exports were interrupted, tens of thousands of tons were thrown. The agriculture of both countries relied on China, the big buyer, lost the market, the upper and downstream industry chain was followed by suffering. Australia’s marijuana exports were 1.5 billion Australian dollars, suddenly gone; Vietnam’s lilium exports were interrupted in the summer, border trade friction escalated, fishing vessels were confronted with more.
In the first half of 2021, Australian fruit exports to China decreased by 19.5% compared to the same, and Vietnam's dragon eye exports were also less than 30%. say, they had hoped for the US Asia-Pacific strategy at the time, but the United States itself had a fierce tariff war, how to help them digest fruit?
According to a report from the Australian Fruit Farmers Association, tens of thousands of tons of cherry, strawberry and grapes were discarded from 2020 to 2022. The Fruit Farmers Association of Southern Vietnam also said that tens of thousands of tons of fruits were thrown away after expiration date. These data are there, and when the friction comes together, the market is lost a little bit.
Fruits are decaying and the economy is under pressure
Lost the market, the fruit broke in the ground, this sounded hearty. Australian 2020 summer cherry season, New South Wales, those fruit gardens, originally a piece of red, now the order cancelled, 1000 tons of strawberries directly discarded. Blue berries fields, berries stack molded, strawberries like peach almonds exports dropped 7%. wine grapes worse, 2022 prices further fall, farmers can only press a portion, excess excavation burial.
According to official data, the wine inventory in 2021 will be 2.1 billion liters, and fruit farmers will not be able to sell the cost per ton of grapes. The average annual export of cherries is 260 tons, which can't be digested by the domestic market. As soon as the destruction procedure of strawberry farms is started, the loss is huge. In June 2020, Vietnam, durian mangoes were thrown into ditches in the Mekong River Delta, and longan pineapples piled up on the roadside, with wrinkled skin and juice dripping. In the first half of 2021, fruit and vegetable exports to China dropped by 15%, dragon fruit was interrupted, and tens of thousands of tons of southern orchards were abandoned.
The overall Australian economy is under pressure, and trade friction makes GDP trade surplus a double-edged sword. From 2020 to 2024, China's economic coercion has a big impact, and diplomatic tensions involve human rights.
Vietnam's South China Sea dispute has escalated. In 2021, lychees and longan will decrease by 30%, pineapples will decline, and moldy fruits in the wholesale market will continue to be cleaned up. The agricultural export chain between the two countries is broken, and farmers are heavily in debt. The report of Southeast Asian fruit farmers in early 2022 shows that Vietnam has high debt.
Australian Sydney warehouses dropped fruit dump, Vietnam border truck empty back, fruit boxes fermented in the heat wave. These things left workers hard days, income sharply reduced, equipment sold at low prices. Australia's total fruit export value dropped in 2021 and cherry blueberry straw full. Vietnam's 2021 mango spinach pineapple buildup, birds shrinking branches.
Both countries realize that the Chinese market is indispensable, the global economic recovery is slow, and agriculture will be suspended without China paying the bill. Tens of thousands of tons were discarded in Australia 2020-2022, and tens of thousands of tons expired in Vietnam. Economic data is ironclad, friction makes the fruit go from bumper harvest to decay, and the industrial chain is completely chaotic. Australian wine exports dropped sharply, and inventories topped; Vietnam's fruit and vegetable trade was blocked, and the Southern Province Association reported large losses. These facts show that the economy is under solid pressure, and the seeds of regret have been planted early.
Relationship easing and trade recovery
In May 2022, Albania came to power, and the policy was pragmatic, and the attitude towards China was softened. In March 2023, China abolished wine tariffs, and in June wheat was also dissolved. In November Albania visited China to promote dialogue. In 2023, bilateral trade increased by 9.2%, reaching 326.9 billion Australian dollars. Cherry exports by 14 million Australian dollars in 2023-24 increased by 129%, up 137% in 582 tons.
In 2024, almonds exported 70,000 tons to China, accounting for half. Beef exports exceeded US$2.2 billion, China's second largest market. In 2025, the new agreement with apple, citrus grapes grew by 20%. Australian fresh agricultural exports to China by 2025 were stronger, built on the basis of tariffs. Albany re-visited in July 2025 and signed an agricultural agreement.
After the 2022 epidemic in Vietnam, China and Vietnam exchanged more visits and border trade reopened. In 2023, fruit and vegetable exports will be 5.6 billion USD, an increase of 70%, and durians will surge. It will rise by 27.1% in 2024. In the first 11 months, 4.1 billion USD of fruits and vegetables will be sent to China, and 1.4 billion USD of aquatic products will be sent to China. In the first seven months of 2025, fruits and vegetables will be USD 3.8 billion, with a total target of USD 8 billion. Durian exports were USD 330 million, 97% to China.
Despite an early drop of 15%, 306 million USD less than 39% in the first two months, but a rebound, EU China sales are strong. Bilateral trade of 4.1 billion fruits and vegetables, 1.4 billion aquatic products in 1-11 2025 March 2025 trade of 512.5 billion USD, a rise of 17.46%. Vietnam positioned the fruit and vegetables powerhouse, targeting 8 billion, and Granite Dragon Mango accelerated.
The total trade between the two countries exceeded 200 billion in 2024, China and Vietnam also broke records. China's market potential is sufficient, the global recovery is slow, the two countries prioritize relations. Australia's fresh production exports to China in 2025 increase, citrus grapes lead. Vietnam's fruits and vegetables in 2025 recover, the EU pulls China.
The bilateral dialogue mechanism returned, the leaders met more in 2025 and the barriers were removed. Australian cherry season recovered, cold chain shipping Asia. Vietnam’s Granit Park was busy, border goods logistics shifted. Economic data showed, China’s market pillar, agricultural chain recovery. This eased trade to regain vitality, strength to hard, China’s importance to be evident.