Preliminary
In the past few decades, Israel has been like the Middle East. The rulers“Who you want to hit, whoever you want to hit, The Iron System.To be honest, who can imagine this myth will one day be broken.
On September 13th, thousands of miles away. HouthisJust use a missile and Tel AvivThe alarm sounded all over the place and millions of people crowded into the shelter was chaotic enough to think about it. What's even more surprising is that on the same day, even China and RussiaHe raised his hand in favor. HamasA complete resolution.
The wind completely changed, and the day that Israel was hit really came. Deep logicWhat exactly is it?
When "Invincible Iron Dome" encounters high supersonic speed, the myth instantly breaks down.
In the morning of September 13, Armed Houthis in Yemendone something important.
They use a piece called " Palestinian 2High-speed hypersonic missiles directed at the heart of Israel and Tel Aviv。
This is not an ordinary rocket bombing attack, but a tech-level challenge that completely disrupts the military balance perception in the Middle East. and 5 Mach.The speed of the flight, even more fatal, is also fitted with multiple bullethead separation technology.
Imagine this scene: the missile suddenly approaches its target " Separated“A lot of things, like magic.
Israel is proud The Iron Defense System.A moment of embarrassment.
This set is blown by its godly air defense net, facing the missiles that will "separate", as powerless as using a fishing net to catch water.
The alarm is sounding and Tel AvivThe subway stopped, shops closed, and millions of residents flooded into shelters like a flood.
This is the first time since the establishment of the state of Israel that such a direct and severe military strike has been felt on the mainland.
What makes it even more unacceptable for Israelis is that unprecedented psychological shock.
For the past few decades, they have been living in " Absolutely safeIn the myth.
Israel has always been a proactive striker, from Gaza to Syria, from Lebanon to Iran, with hardly anyone really hitting it.
But this time it’s different, Houthi armed with one.” Technical asymmetry“Hard-to-do has torn Israel’s windless safety net.
Behind the missile, there is a shadow of Iranian technology and a glow of local innovation.
It sends a signal to the entire Middle East that traditional military superiority is rapidly being wiped out by new technologies.
When a "non-state actor" can break through the super air defense system, Military mythsThe destruction is inevitable.
China-Russia suddenly turned face to vote in favour, Hamas friends circle instantly empty
Just as the missiles wiped out the sky in Tel Aviv, a much more dramatic scene took place at the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
On September 13, a Saudi Arabia and FranceA jointly initiated Palestinian peace resolution was voted.
The result surprised everyone: 142 in favor, 10 against, overwhelmingly passed.
What is even more striking is that, China and RussiaAll voted in favor.
Recently, the two powers also had high-level contacts with Hamas separately.
China has invited him to visit Beijing, and Russia has also received a delegation in Moscow, giving Hamas a lot of political support.
But this vote is equivalent to a vote for Hamas. Political death penalty。
The core content of the resolution is clear: "immediate and unconditional release of hostages" and "support for the formation of FatahAt the core of the new government, "the UAE and the United Nations jointly oversee the governance of Gaza."
“Hamas must step out of the political scene and the future of Palestine must come from.” De-Hamasization“The beginning.
Behind this change of attitude, there is a clear game logic.
China does not want to abandon the Palestinian resistance cause, but rather choose to support the mainstream program of the Arab world.
To pull the Palestinian issue out of the mud of armed conflict and to the right track of state construction.
In their view, Hamas has gone from a resistance force to an obstacle to Palestinian statehood. " Obstacles are"。
Removing this stone will create conditions for further pressure on Israel to fight for the right to establish a real state.
After the voting, the venue applauded. The representative of Saudi Arabia said that this was the embodiment of international consensus.
Although the United States voted against it, it can no longer stop it The international trendsOf steering.
Hamas lost the back of the great powers overnight, without even the qualification to watch at the “replacement table.”
The political space was completely blocked, and it really became Solitary widow。
Former allies each saved their lives, but Hamas became an unwanted abandoned son
The one that Hamas relies on " Resistance to Axis", now it is already a clay bodhisattva crossing the river.
Look at the situation in Iran.
This former gold master is now deeply trapped in the economic dungeon, domestic inflation is high, protesting this uprising, and is not able to long-term blood transfusion.
Lebanese HezbollahNot good to go anywhere.
Because of domestic political losses, they are turning to the "safe-life model", and also thinking about the affairs of others.
As for the Houthi armed forces that have just launched missiles, although they acted astonishingly, they are also deeply trapped in the dungeon of the Yemeni civil war, whether they can safeguard themselves and is unknown.
On the field battlefield, Israel's clearance campaign against Gaza continues to advance.
Hamas’s command system has been severely weakened. The underground passage.It was destroyed and the arms supply line was blocked.
Starting with the cross-border attack on 7 October 2023, Hamas has taken a path of no return.
They thought they could.” kidnappedThe international community in exchange for hostages.
It was unthinkable that this tactic completely exhausted the last patience of the international community.
Looking back now, Hamas was founded in 1987 and originally relied on social welfare to become popular in Canada.
Providing medical and educational assistance gradually accumulated a popular base before turning to armed resistance.
After winning elections in 2006, he took control of Gaza, fighting against Fatah, and succeeded in taking power in 2007.
Organized and built rocket forces and tunnel systems, and engaged in military conflicts with Israel many times.
But now, the political entity that once controlled Gaza is like a besieged gambler.
The only thing on the table is in the hand. The Israeli hostage。
The choice is clear: either release all hostages now in exchange for the international community’s “decent retreat.”
Either it will be put to death and completely eliminated militarily by Israel, and there will be no qualifying for negotiations.
The question is whether Hamas’ decision-making can still be judged calmly or has slipped into it.” with the end.The emotional whirlwind.
The international community has planned a way out for them – to return to their homes and return to civilians.
For the future governance of Gaza, Hamas may still be able to reserve some space in non-core areas such as healthcare and education.
But the gunpowder and political power, is absolutely not want to touch again.
Cleaning up Hamas is just the beginning, the real test is in Israel
“The international community.” De-Hamasization"An interesting situation emerged when broad consensus emerged.
The excuse that has long been used by Israel as a shield is slowly disappearing.
Now, the ball has been kicked back at Israel's feet.
The Netanyahu governmentIt’s a “double game.”
Internationally, they have taken a gesture of cooperation against Hamas.
But at home, they are speeding up the West Bank. The E1 areaSettlement construction.
This E1 project has extremely sinister intentions. Once built, it will completely divide the land in the West Bank.
Kill geographically " The two countries program"Any possibility.
Netanyahu said: “There will never be a Palestinian state.”
This statement is tantamount to admitting to the world that for Israeli hardliners, the existence or absence of Hamas has never been the core of the issue.
Hamas is just a convenient excuse to delay and bury Palestinian dreams of statehood Tools。
Now, this tool is about to be taken away.
Houthi missiles have proved that mere military advantage cannot be exchanged for permanent security.
The international community’s unanimous stance on Hamas also deprives Israel of the legitimacy of continuing to use it as a pretext.
When the Hamas barrier is removed, the next issue in the international community will inevitably turn to: how to restrict Israel’s military operations. The expansion policy？
Especially for big countries like China and Russia, which have just entered the game and have paid political capital for it.
They never want to see a "castrated" peace plan.
The core game of the future will no longer be how to solve Hamas, but the more fundamental and difficult question.
Who will stop Israel from expanding?
The answer to this question will determine whether the Middle East can truly lasting peace.
It continues in the cycle of conflict.
The "double shock" of September 13 ended the old illusions of the parties to the conflict in a cruel way.
It gave rise to a new consensus, although fragile but real.
When the most apparent contradiction is removed, the one that has long been avoided is deliberately covered up. The core issue, exposed to the spotlight like never before.
The real key to peace in the Middle East ultimately depends on whether the international community has enough will and strong capabilities.
conclusion
In the end, the “double shock” of September 13 was just the beginning. Hamas is out.It seems to have been resolved, but peace is still far away.
The real problem has never been with Hamas, but with the Fundamental contradictionWhen the most obvious obstacles are removed, the core problem is placed more clearly on the table.
The key to peace in the Middle EastIn whose hands is it? Do you think the international community can seize the opportunity this time?