On September 18th, a seemingly ordinary move by the US Congress triggered a violent shock in Sino-US relations. On this day, the chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Select Committee on China and a Republican member John MullenarA letter was sent to the White House, and in that letter he made a compelling suggestion: If China does not give the United States rare land, then the United States will restrict Chinese flights to land in the United States.
On the surface, this is just a personal proposal of a congressman, but in fact, what is hidden behind this letter is the overall anxiety of the US government's China policy. China responded to this "threat" in a very direct way- Reduce its holdings of US debt by $25.7 billion. Is there a connection between these two things? Why does the United States have to use rare earths as a bargaining chip at this time?
In April 2025, the Ministry of Commerce of China issued an announcement officially implementing export controls on 7 categories of medium-heavy and rare-earth related objects. The U.S. Department of Defense is not the first.Rare earth is not rare, but difficult to purify and process, the United States although there are rare earth mines, but early on the mining and processing of all "outsourcing" to other countries, especially China.
It took China decades to establish the world’s most complete rare-earth industrial chain. Up to 92% of global rare-earth products are in Chinese hands.This means that the key raw materials needed for U.S. defense equipment such as fighter jets, missiles, radars and others are largely supplied by China.
Of course, the United States does not want to be "stuck". So, they launched the so-called "rare earth emergency plan", Investing Billions to Build Alternative Supply Chains in Australia and CanadaAs you can see, this is to get rid of dependency on China.
But foreign media calmly pointed out that even if everything goes well, the U.S. will take at least five years to get rid of its dependence on China's rare earth. The letter of Mueller, in fact, was written in such a context. He knew that "time is not on the side of the U.S." The most ruthless one is: if you don't give rare earths, you won't let your plane land in the United States.
The other two are damaged: Review all policies on China's sales of commercial aircraft, and unite allies to block China's foreign investment in aviation.This is not a simple “suggestion”, but a nude code for civil aviation cooperation, forcing China to make concessions on rare earth issues.But this threat is not new, and the United States has repeatedly played the same tool in recent years.
Looking back at The U.S. flight had gone through three waves.During the epidemic, flights dropped sharply, and in 2023 and 2024, the U.S. Department of Transportation just approved the gradual resumption of Sino-U.S. flights. Chinese and American airlines fly 48 trips each, maintaining a delicate balance.
Just two days before Mullenar sent the letter, the U.S. Department of Transportation also approved a six-month extension of the flight licenses of the three major U.S. airlines to China. If Mullenar's proposal is really implemented, the airports, airlines and tourism industries in the United States will bear the brunt of the blow. Los Angeles, San Francisco, and New York, these international hub cities, will be directly at risk of a sharp decline in passenger flow.
Meanwhile, China did not sit down to wait.In the same week in the publication of the Muller letter, With a wave of its hand, China reduced its holdings of US debt by US $25.7 billion, bringing its holdings to US $730.7 billion, a new low since 2009.
It's not just a financial operation, it's more like a response.Starting in 2022, China’s U.S. debt holdings have been decreasing, with a cumulative decrease of $281.3 billion over the past three years. China is massively buying gold and advancing the internationalization of the RMB, and it is clearly making long-term preparations for the de-dollarization.
This suggests that China has long anticipated that it could be “financial abduction”, so gradually reduce its reliance on U.S. debt. The U.S. engages in rare-earth threats, of course, not only to make China difficult, but also to solve its own domestic problems. The days of farmers in 2025 will be difficult.The autumn harvest season should have been celebrated, but this time has become the most frightening time for farmers.
With lower soybean prices and high costs, the number of farms in the United States has surpassed that of last year in the first half of this year. Republican lawmakers have publicly warned of a financial crisis in rural areas without aid.
However, China is at this juncture again, The purchase of soybeans has been suspended.The votes of agricultural states in the United States are Trump's lifeblood, especially Iowa and Illinois, which were the key ballot boxes of his last general election. China’s suspension of procurement is equivalent to accurately hitting his weak rib.
Of course Trump is in a hurry. During the negotiations in Madrid, he "spoiled" on social media that China and the United States had a good talk, and he had to talk on the phone three days later. But before the words fell, the United States blacklisted 23 Chinese entities. There was no sincerity at all.
At the negotiating table, China is neither impatient nor impatient, but the United States is anxious. Agricultural products cannot be sold, rare earths are stuck, companies are under pressure, and inflation is high. American politicians have fewer and fewer bargaining chips. Even the "tariff card" that was once used by Trump has almost lost its effect now. Since 2025, U.S. calls for tariffs on China have not been heard, and even imposed 200% punitive tariffs, but they have little effect.
Ironically, the United States itself knows that flight threats do not work.The Chicago Convention makes it clear that international flights cannot be arbitrarily denied landing. If the United States does so, it will not only lose the moral height of international rules, but will also be subject to global counter-repression.
China is fully capable of countermeasures. China holds key resources such as rare earth supply chain, chip materials, and battery raw materials. It is by no means difficult to carry out a "tailor-made" counterattack against the United States.
Mullenar's suggestion is actually not the first time. As early as 2023, he wrote letters to American universities, asking them to terminate their study abroad cooperation with China. It also strongly opposes Nvidia's export of AI chips to China, claiming that this is a "threat to national security."
The logic behind it is simple: As long as China develops, the United States is uncomfortable.The problem of the U.S. military-industrial field, nor can it be solved by rare earth. take the F-35 fighter aircraft for example, Upgrading plans are delayed, with thousands of software defects and stockpiles mounting.
The U.S. Air Force is afraid to accept "semi-finished products". This is not a matter of rare earth supply, but a systemic decline. In the past five years, Lockheed Martin has lost 40% of its core avionics engineers, and the brain drain is fundamental.
China has developed the domestic large aircraft C919, and the dependence on Boeing in the future will be less and less. Mullenar also wants to suppress China by restricting aircraft exports, which will only speed up China's autonomy process.
European hubs such as Paris and Frankfurt, working closely with Chinese airlines, will not break their way because of a few words from the US. In today’s globalization, any unilateral threat is difficult to work. China’s countermeasures in many fields such as rare earth, soybeans, finance and others tell the world not to accept coercion and not to be afraid of challenges.
The relationship between China and the United States cannot be determined by who is fiercer and who is tougher. What really determines the future is reason, cooperation and mutual benefit.
U.S. politicians try to use flight threats in exchange for rare-earth supplies, in fact, is the bottom line in the approach. China, in the way of reducing the US debt, releases a clear signal - not accepting threats, not compromise. China-U.S. relations are notined by screams and sanctions, but by sincerity and action. The future path, destined to not be flat, but who can stand on the front, who has the initiative.
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[1] In July, China reduced US debt holdings by $25.7 billion, the lowest in 16 years.
U.S. lawmakers raise the idea: not to give rare earth, not to let Chinese flights land