U.S. Congress has a hammer, the number of votes is set at 48:47, this difference of votes, Trump's calculator is wrong.
Not only has he managed to infiltrate the Federal Reserve’s “your own people” not to change the scale of interest rate cuts, but he has to face a more realistic problem: $31.5 billion in huge agricultural subsidies, almost to “grow three feet of ground” in the White House to get out.
And this bill was not handed over by others, but forced out step by step by China without placing an order, the EU without buying it, and the market without giving face.
The Fed doesn’t buy his bills, farmers are waiting for his rescue money, allies are clearing the boundaries, and Trump this time, not just “out of control”, but “lost points.”
Trump’s Federal Reserve card is empty.
On the surface, Trump's success in getting Stephen Miran into the Federal Reserve Board of Governors stands to reason that it should be the "starting style" of controlling monetary policy. But reality hit him in the face: the Fed only dropped by 25 basis points as usual. Compared with the 50 basis points that Trump publicly shouted to drop, it is simply "meaning".
More embarrassingly, even Milan himself voted against the internal vote, which still failed to shake the Federal Reserve’s “independence.”
This also exposes a bigger problem on the side: Trump’s “control power” has begun to decline. The Senate’s 48:47 vote is scary, with some Republican lawmakers showing signs of “running tickets” clearly indicating that the party’s absolute loyalty to him is relaxing.
He wanted to change the rate of the Fed’s interest rate cuts through staff appointments, but in return was a symbolic victory that was far greater than the actual effect.
And the Fed's decision this time is not unreasonable. Although the U.S. economy shows signs of slowing down, there is no obvious signal of recession. If interest rates are cut rashly and sharply, it may cause the market to misjudge that the economy is "terminally ill".
In other words, the Fed’s restraint is to maintain market confidence, not to hit Trump’s face.
Next, although Trump may try to change the president of the regional Fed and continue to push forward his interest rate cut plan, his "dream of monetary policy intervention" is doomed to be difficult in the short term under the system of the Fed's independent policy.
$351 billion is not a small number.
If the Fed's interest rate cuts made Trump "lose his face", then China did not order soybeans, directly causing him to "harm the muscle."
The American Soybean Association has publicly sounded the alarm: China, once the biggest buyer, has not placed a single order in the current harvest season. You know, China's past purchases accounted for a quarter of U.S. soybean exports.
This round of "clean zero" directly panicked the American soy farm: prices fell by 40%, but the cost is rising, simply "before the wolf and then the tiger."
The farmers, of course, did not sit down to die, but turned their eyes back to the White House. They remember that Trump, during his first term in office, granted $35.1 billion in subsidies to compensate for the export losses caused by the trade war.
The problem is here. the US finance can now be called "the elbow", the debt has accounted for a share of GDP of more than 120%, the financial space is almost dried, Trump wants another round of large pen subsidies, before Congress has to say nothing, and must face a reality: where does the money come from?
More importantly, this is not a simple accounting issue, but a question of political direction. Agricultural states have always been Trump’s iron box office, and the changes in farmers’ mood are likely to be reflected in the midterm elections in 2026.
The United States falls into an “export island”
If Trump was caught off guard by no orders in the Chinese market, then the EU's "refusal to cooperate" made him completely lose his "back road".
Trump has previously tried to push the EU to join forces with the United States to impose punitive tariffs of up to 100% on China and India, with the aim of leveraging the European market volume together.
The reason is not complicated. China is the second largest trading partner of the European Union, with an annual bilateral trade volume of 700 to 800 billion US dollars. In Germany alone, one-third of the sales of its Volkswagen and BMW come from the Chinese market. If you really follow the United States to "go against it", it will be to cut off your own financial path, and the EU will refuse without thinking about it.
Moreover, in the eyes of Europeans, Trump’s approach is no longer just “protektionism”, but a naked “potting pot”. he wants to outsource the pressure of trade with China to Europe, so that the EU becomes “the shield of the shield”, but Europeans are obviously not stupid, not willing to pay for the US agricultural trouble.
What does this mean? means that U.S. soybeans, after losing the Chinese market, want to find alternative markets almost no door. The EU does not help, developing countries can not eat so much, farmers look at the harvest slowing down, even "clear out" is a problem.
Trump originally wanted to shift domestic contradictions through "strong external" but found that the world is no longer a chessboard that he can easily move. his "allies" no longer listen, the cooperation objects are becoming less and less, and the ultimate pressure can only be borne by themselves.
What Trump is facing this time is not a single problem, but a tripartite circle: the Federal Reserve does not obey, China does not order, and Europe does not buy accounts.Each seemingly independent event is actually pointing to a common signal: Trump’s control over the economic situation is declining.
And this series of “uncontrollable” also reflects the stubbornness of the U.S. economy: excessive reliance on financial instruments, industrial emptiness is severe, and excessive dependence on the outside. Once the global markets no longer cooperate, and the internal finances are uncomfortable, all Trump’s strategies, whether monetary intervention, agricultural subsidies, or trade pressure will eventually fail.
This time, Trump will not only pay $35.1 billion, but also face a more difficult question: Can he still control the next situation?
References:
The U.S. Senate votes to confirm Stephen Milan to be chairman of the Federal Reserve, 2025-09-16 09:48
“The UK does not welcome Trump” Thousands of people march in London to protest Trump’s visit to Britain 2025-09-18 15:19
The Federal Reserve announces a rate reduction of 25 basis points in a year or two more in a year, 2025-09-18 15:30