In September 2025, a sudden "ceasefire" widened the eyes of the world.
As soon as the 100,000-strong Russian and Belarusian troops completed a large-scale military exercise at the border, Ukrainian President Zelensky suddenly announced that he was "ready for a ceasefire" and took the initiative to call out to Trump for mediation.
This appears to be a “consent to each other” situation, in fact, Putin’s self-planned “psychological war” is playing a role.
Although NATO has put out a gesture of "to do", it is true to the crucial moment, the actions of European countries are like stepping on the brake.
So, Ukraine cried down and became the most genuine pitch in this game of great powers.
Europe shouts slogans, the Russian army draws red lines, and Ukraine's "security card" is empty
Talking about this “fire-fire wave” cannot begin without talking about the big cake of the “volunteer coalition” in Europe.
This summer, France announced the formation of a “volunteer coalition” of 26 countries to send troops into Ukraine.
It sounds silly, but it really needs to be implemented, and the internal opinions are a pot pot.
Germany was only willing to provide equipment, and Poland simply publicly refused to send ground troops, even saying “that’s not in our national interests.”
The so-called "alliance" sounds like a war, but in fact it is more like cheering up Ukraine.
The Russian attitude is consistent.
Putin said at the end of last year: whoever dares to step into Ukraine, Russia will do it.
As a result, on September 16, 2025, the Russian-Belarus coalition forces launched the "West 2025" military exercise, which included not only conventional forces synergies, but also direct exercises on nuclear strike plans.
The S-400 air defense system and the Iskander missile are in line, and it is clear that it is for NATO to see.
This is not exercise, it is naked deterrence.
NATO is still silent.
The U.S. F-35 fighter jets and 3,000 troops entered Poland, looking like a “Safety Force”, but the scope of the mission was explicitly limited to “defensive patrol.”
Without the authorization of the United Nations, the legitimacy itself is problematic. Even people within NATO are asking: What are we doing here?
As a result, Ukraine's situation has become extremely awkward.
NATO has said that a ceasefire is necessary in order to enter Ukraine.
The Ukrainian foreign ministers themselves acknowledged: “Without a ceasefire, European soldiers will not come.”
Therefore, no matter how tough Zelensky is, he has to bow his head. The Russian army's red line is clearly drawn, but NATO's commitments are becoming more and more like empty promises.
What can Ukraine choose in this case?
Continuing to fight, not only will no one help, but it may lead to a larger Russian counterattack.
So the decision to “prepare for a ceasefire” appears to be initiative, in fact passively handing over the initiative.
Putin's "deterrence game" caused Ukraine to retreat step by step, and NATO did not dare to take any further.
Trump plays economic cards, Ukraine becomes a “strategic resource exchange”
Ukraine suddenly proposed a cease-fire, and there is a background that cannot be overlooked: Trump’s calculation is out.
The former US president and current Republican candidate made another high-profile move, asking Europe to impose tariffs on China and India on the grounds of "weakening Russia's economic backup".
But what is strange is that the United States has not increased its own sanctions against Russia. Instead, it has revealed the bottom in the data-in the first half of 2025, the bilateral trade volume between the United States and Russia actually increased by 12%, and energy trading has become the main force.
We talk about "sanctions" here, but we are quietly doing business there.
Trump wanted to weaken Russia, which in turn turned into a “stabilizer” of the energy market.
Of course, Russia is not waiting.
Gazprom has long begun to export gas to India on a massive scale, delivering at discounted prices, and in the first half of 2025 the transaction volume exceeded $18 billion.
Compared to the western blockade, India is a new buyer.
Russia earns foreign exchange while selling energy, almost turning Western sanctions into a "voluntary embargo."
Zelensky wanted to use a ceasefire in exchange for Trump's support, betting on the "Ukrainian code" before the US election.
But the Trump team’s conditions are realistic: to help, first take rare earth resources in exchange.
This is not a rescue, it is a deal.
Zelensky is in trouble: on the one hand, the domestic support rate has fallen below 50 percent, and the parliament has been screaming for impeachment.
On the other hand, it is the "resources for support" clearly marked by the Trump team.
What is even harder is public opinion.
62% of Ukrainians say “accepting a ceasefire is betrayal.”
This is not a simple tactical choice, but a questioning of the country’s direction.
Zelensky’s political foundation was unstable, bloodless, and not even a position.
On the battlefield, Russian troops were also killed, losing 2,000 people a day.
But the situation in the Ukrainian army is worse, with more than 90,000 soldiers fleeing by 2025, with a severe shortage of equipment, and combat capabilities dropped by 40%.
Again, it is not Russia that can resist, but Ukraine itself.
Putin’s calculation clearly goes even further.
If the war continues until 2026, Ukraine's GDP will shrink by 35%, while Russia can fully withstand long-term consumption by relying on energy and food exports.
Ukraine chose a ceasefire, not because it won, but because it has failed.
NATO expands to the east into a dungeon, Putin moves forward against assassination
If you look a little further, you will see that the ceasefire is not just a matter for Ukraine, but a “strategic embarrassment” for NATO.
Poland’s recent move is also subtle, blocking the border on the grounds of a “Russian drone invasion,” which appears to be a conservative country, but behind it exposes the differences inside NATO.
In a recent joint military exercise, for example, there were 65 Indian soldiers involved in the training, which indicates that NATO allies have been pulled into “non-traditional fields”, meaning somewhat “less manpower.”
Russia did not sit idly by.
Russia’s ambassador to Poland directly warned that any provocation could lead to “uncontrollable consequences.”
If you dare to move, I move.
Subsequently, the number of Russian troops stationed on the Polish border soared to 100,000, almost turning the entire eastern flank into a "powder magazine."
NATO's defense line is actually not solid.
The Eastern wing was mainly supported by small nations such as Estonia and Latvia, which had less than a third of the total military capacity of the Russian army, and also equipped with the old, even Latvia is still using Soviet-era tanks.
To go to the battlefield, it may not last for a few days.
Russia’s actions are more tactical.
The Baltic Fleet directly held cross-sea landing drills to simulate the capture of Polish ports.
This forced NATO to remove its main fleet from the Black Sea, and the Russians had the opportunity to relax on the southern line, with almost no cost to switch tactics.
Ukraine has fallen into geographical isolation.
The European Union has suspended 5.5 billion euros of aid, and Hungary and Slovakia clearly oppose "unrestricted military aid", and even food is almost out of supply.
After the Russian army took control of the Ukrainian livestock warehouse, wheat exports overtook Ukraine in 2025 and even directly affected the African market, forcing the West to rethink its policy towards Russia.
From military to economy, from geography to diplomacy, Putin's "counter-killing" does not rely on surprise attacks, but erodes step by step.
Ukraine’s surrender is a direct consequence of NATO’s emptiness and the steady advancement of Russia’s strategy.
Behind the ceasefire is a long written script.
From Putin’s pronouncement in December 2024 that “the plan to weaken Russia will inevitably fail” to the “dissuasion show” in September of this year, Ukraine’s ceasefire has been progressed almost in the scenario.
Zelensky tried to stop the bleeding, but was unable to control the rhythm.
NATO wants to contain it, but it falls into self-imposed limits.
In the end, the winner is not the one who shouts the loudest, but the player who has already set the board in place.
Putin did not win the war, but he won the strategy.
This ceasefire is not the end, but the beginning of the next round of contest.