Trump received an official invitation from China to visit China. It stands to reason that this should be a high-standard diplomacy of the head of state, but he didn't agree at the first time. Instead, he threw out two conditions: buy more American soybeans and sign several Boeing planes.
It sounds like talking about diplomacy, but in reality it’s like talking about business.The question is, will China take on this “deal”? and why would Trump turn a visit to China into a “procurement trip”?
Trump is hard to guess.
This time, Trump didn't hide his intentions. His response was very direct-you can ask me to visit China, but you have to solve my two "heart diseases" first: soybeans and Boeing.
Let's start with soybeans. This is not an ordinary agricultural product, but a "life-saving grass" on Trump's *. In 2024, U.S. soybean exports to China plummeted by 42%, and farmers in agricultural states in the Midwest could hardly hold on.
In the traditional red states of Iowa and Illinois, the bankruptcy rate of farmers rose by 23 percent, and the stockpiles stacked like a mountain.
That's why Trump strongly urged China to quadruple its soybean purchase, which is not only an economic issue, but also a political guarantee proposition.
By mid-November, U.S. agricultural products will reach a peak in sales, and if China does not order, the U.S. is afraid to lose 1,400 to 16 million tons of soybean sales.
Besides soybeans, there is Boeing. This name not only represents a company, but also symbolizes the face of American manufacturing industry. In the first half of 2025, Boeing lost $612 million.
The Chinese market used to be Boeing's "gold owner", accounting for 18% of sales at its peak. But since 2019, China's new orders have almost stagnated, and now there are only more than 30 remaining orders.
Trump obviously hopes to replicate the "glorious moment" of signing 300 Boeing orders during his visit to China in 2017, and fight another "diplomatic victory" to boost domestic confidence. But this time, what he wants is not symbolism, but "order diplomacy" of real money.
From soybeans to Boeing, Trump made his attitude clear this time: If you want me to come, place an order first. This is not diplomatic foreshadowing, but "campaign procurement"; Not strategic communication, but a "deal list".
It's not whoever makes conditions that have the upper hand
In the face of Trump’s wave of “First and Again” operations, China’s response was calm and restraintful.The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce emphasized that head of state visits are an advanced form of strategic communication between the two countries and should not be simplified to some kind of trading activity.
To put it bluntly, it's not that China doesn't welcome Trump, but that it doesn't accept the "buy first and talk later" game.
There are two key points behind this. First, China is indeed less "deficient" in U.S. soybeans now. Over the past few years, China has vigorously pushed for diversification of soybeans import channels, and the proportion of purchases from Brazil has now exceeded 70%.
In 2024, China ordered 2.4 million tons from Brazil, while imports from the United States were only about 3 million tons, which can almost be ignored.Together with domestic soybeans reduction technology being promoted, the dependence on imported soybeans has been reduced, which has led to the US soybeans’ “negotiated value” down the line.
Second, Boeing is not a must-buy option. China's domestic large aircraft C919 has been officially put into commercial operation, with a cumulative order volume of more than 1,000 aircraft.
Meanwhile, China is also stepping up its cooperation with Airbus, and French President Macron just pushed 200 to 500 Airbus orders when he visited China.
More importantly, China is not in the hands of unencrypted. Exports of rare earth, for example, from 2024's 1,20,000 tons dropped to today's 3,000 tons. This is not a simple trade figure, rare earth is the key material for military projects such as F-35 fighter jets, nuclear submarines. Once China is further tightened, the U.S. military industry system may face "systematic delays".
The same applies to the chip field. China has launched an anti-dumping investigation into NVIDIA chips, while the self-sufficiency rate for domestic chips has gradually risen. Huawei’s Lift 910B chips have been replaced in several fields, meaning China’s “independence” in high-end technology is increasing.
Therefore, China is not in a hurry to agree to Trump's conditions. It is not tough, but emboldened. China values the quality of cooperation more than one-off "political orders".
From deal to dialogue.
Trump’s “conditional diplomacy” this time is not so complicated, but it’s just visiting China as a code in exchange for domestic political and economic breathing space, but can this strategy still work?
Core inflation is still high, consumer confidence has fallen to a three-year low, fiscal deficit is up to $1.3 trillion, and U.S. bond issuance scale has broken a record.
Trump’s support rate also dropped to 42 percent, even inside the Republican Party.The “manufacturing backflow” and “tariff pressure” that was once mainly called, are now the burden of dragging the economy.
At this time, Trump suddenly shifted the strategy, from "disclaimer" to "talk about buying and selling", in fact, a kind of "default by default" of the strong policy against China over the past five years.
At first he wanted to pressure China to boost the U.S. economy, but now he has to rely on China to stabilize the domestic situation, which is the reality of counterfeiting.
China has gradually mastered the pace of the Chinese-U.S. game after experiencing many rounds of grinding.From the China-U.S. tariff reduction agreement reached in Geneva talks, to the continued growth of trade with ASEAN and the Belt and Road countries, China has not fallen into the difficult situation of "dependence on the United States".
In the first quarter of 2025, China's trade with ASEAN increased by 12%, the BRICS countries also expanded to 25, and the de-dollarization of financial mechanisms gradually established.
It can be said that the "interaction mode" between China and the United States is quietly changing. Trump wants to solve new problems in the old way, but China no longer follows his script.
In the future, China-U.S. relations may still have a lot of games in the short term, especially on sensitive issues such as science and technology and Taiwan, but in the long run, if the two countries want to play a constructive role in global affairs, they must be built on mutual respect and cooperation.
The head of diplomacy should be a platform for strategic communication, not a ballot collector.If the U.S. still holds the "you buy me come" calculator, then this plane, I am afraid, will always stop on the runway.
Trump's "conditional diplomacy", which appears to be a bargaining price before a visit to China, actually exposes the US's increasingly passive gesture in Sino-American relations.
He is eager to stabilize domestic politics through a transactional visit, but ignores that China is no longer the opponent who can only take passive moves. China is calm, not in a hurry, and does not give in, showing its strategic determination and the bottom line of reciprocal diplomacy.
This "negotiation before the plane takes off" essentially reflects who is more rhythmic and who has more endurance between China and the United States. The future Sino-US relations are destined to be not simple, but they cannot avoid the reality of cooperation.
Real stability depends not on temporary purchases, but on mutual respect. Otherwise, even if the plane comes, it may not be able to connect with the ground air when it lands.
References:
China has invited Trump to visit China? Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded
2025-09-15 20:36 · City reports