On the special plane to Britain, Trump was still thinking about Modi's birthday.

Trump said on social media on September 16 local time that he had just had a very pleasant call with Modi, "I wish him a happy birthday, he did a great job."

After receiving Trump's blessings, Modi also responded on social media, "Thank you, my friend President Trump, for your call and warm blessings on my 75th birthday," while Modi also said he was fully committed to raising Indian-American relations to new heights.

Mr. Trump and Mr. Modi did not see that the two nations are still in a trade war. Mr. Trump has also been dealing with the bad speech of India recently, and Mr. Modi has previously rejected Mr. Trump's call request. Now, with the re-contact of the trade representatives of the two countries, the two sides have re-adjusted their gestures.

Liu Said, director of the South Asian Research Center of the Shanghai Institute for International Affairs, told the first financial reporter that while India is still in a state of mental turmoil, it hopes to eventually ease its relations with the United States.In trade negotiations, India hopes to become the U.S. "tariff hub" in the Asia-Pacific region, which is lower than the tariffs of neighboring countries such as China, Vietnam and Bangladesh, in order to the goal of transferring industrial chains and supply chains to India.

Trump and Modi hold together.

The US-India game

Just on the day of Trump¡¯s conversation with Modi, trade officials from both sides resumed their contacts.

Brendan Lynch, Assistant Trade Representative of the Office of the United States Trade Representative for South and Central Asian Affairs, met with Rajesh Agarwal, India's chief negotiator, on the 16th.

Earlier, India had been cautiously optimistic about this contact, suggesting that more measures were needed to restore relations between the two countries. So far, the two sides have held five rounds of negotiations on trade issues and have not reached any agreement. The sixth round of negotiations on the Indo-American bilateral trade agreement, scheduled for August 25-29, has been postponed.

According to Agaval, the meeting is a ¡°prequel¡± to the sixth round of US-India trade talks, he said, while this is not a formal trade talks, it will be around trade issues and try to explore how to reach an agreement between India and the United States.

Trump signed an executive order on August 6 to impose an additional 25% tariff on India's U.S. products on the basis of the existing 25% on the basis of India's "direct or indirect import of Russian oil".After August 27 officially entered into force, except for electronic products such as Apple phones, as well as pharmaceutical products will still enjoy tariff exemption treatment, other major Indian U.S. products will pay a heavy tax of 50%, and U.S. and U.S. relations will rapidly turn straight.

Now Modi is willing to receive Trump¡¯s phone call, which also shows the shift in U.S.-India relations. This is the first public call between the two sides in three months. Additionally, according to sources revealed at the end of August, Trump has recently tried four times to call Modi, but Modi did not listen.

During trade negotiations, Trump has often been ¡°not in line¡± in calls, such as in talks with Vietnamese leaders, Trump has raised the tax rate determined in previous negotiations on his own, leaving Vietnam out of hand. This has also forced Modi to handle Trump¡¯s calls with caution.

Perhaps because he couldn't make a phone call, Trump had to shout with Modi on social media in early September. On September 5th, local time, in less than a day, Trump first complained that the United States had "lost" India and Russia to China, and then changed his mouth and said that he and Modi were "always friends". In the face of Trump's volatile mood, Modi responded on the 6th that the relationship between India and the United States is still "very positive".

Trump said on social media on the 10th local time that he was looking forward to talking to Modi in the "next few weeks" and was optimistic that the two sides were expected to reach a trade agreement. "I am sure that the two great countries will have no difficulty in reaching the victory." Trump wrote.

Madhavi Arora, an economist at Emkay Global Financial Services, said: ¡°While Trump and Modi¡¯s remarks have released signals of reconciliation, it¡¯s still too early for both sides to resolve the issue quickly.¡±

According to data released on September 15 by the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India's exports to the United States fell from $80.1 billion in July to $68,6 billion in August, while Indian exporters warned that the full impact of U.S. tariffs on Indian commodity exports would be apparent in September.

The street of India.

Pancage Chada, chairman of India¡¯s Engineering Export Promotion Commission, said last month that ¡°U.S. customers have stopped placing new orders and exports could drop by 20 to 30 percent due to these additional tariffs.¡±

In addition to being stronger directly with the United States, India also balanced by improving relations with its neighbors and accelerating trade negotiations with other countries. In September, both India and the EU said they would accelerate free trade negotiations. In the coming months, both Indo-European sides may hold at least 10 meetings to strive for a free trade agreement by the end of the year.

Focus of contradiction

Although Trump imposed tariffs on India under the pretext of India's purchase of discounted Russian oil, in trade negotiations, the United States is more concerned about India's agricultural market.

In the negotiations, the United States demanded that India lower tariffs on products such as corn, soybeans, apples, almonds and ethanol, and expand market access for U.S. dairy products. India is now the world¡¯s largest population country, with high per capita milk consumption, and demand for milk is expected to rise dramatically as population and economy grow.

The head of Indian dairy company Milky Mist says the U.S. dairy industry has a scale effect and will make Indian cows lose competitiveness. Once it is released it will lead to imports, sparking fierce protests among dairy farmers, dairy farmers will also be forced to switch to other industries, ultimately affecting the level of self-sufficiency of Indian milk.

For other agricultural products that are unwilling to let go, India's worries about milk are similar to those of milk. India's agriculture is still dominated by small-scale peasant economy, and a large number of farmers rely on agricultural production to maintain their lives. If India liberalizes the import of high-quality and low-price foreign agricultural products, it will cause a devastating blow to its agriculture and farmers, especially in the agricultural-dominated areas of southern India.

In 2014 and 2019, the Modi-led People's Party of India won the general election twice with a overwhelming advantage, but in the general election of 2024, the People's Party of India won only 240 of the 543 seats and could only rely on the Alliance to get over half of the seats. In this context, the Modi administration is less likely to make concessions in agricultural and dairy products: not only will it shake its voter base, but will be besieged by the opposition party.

However, under the weight of high tariffs in the United States, not all businesses are losers. For example, Dabur, a local consumer goods company in India, recently took advantage of the opportunity to launch a gunpowder-smelling advertisement, directly pointing to toothpaste brand Colgate. The advertisement insinuates that the most popular toothpaste in India is actually American, and it is truly made in India.

According to data from Euromonitor in 2024, Colgate has a 43% share of the Indian toothpaste market, followed by Unilever's Pepsodent, and Dabur ranks third with a 17% share. For Dabour, this is an opportunity to take advantage of the situation to seize market share.

Modi urges people to buy local products

Against this background, Modi also called on people to buy local products to alleviate the impact on the Indian economy as global uncertainty intensifies. In his speech, he said: "The world economy is facing many worries and the situation is unstable. Now, no matter what we buy, there should be only one standard: buy products made by Indians with hard work and sweat."

Modi has also said the government will accelerate adjustments to goods and services taxes to boost economic confidence and better cope with tariff shocks.