[Global Times reporter Yang Shasha Ma Mengyang] Russ Tweed, a well-known European investor and entrepreneur living in Switzerland, is personally experiencing the impact of the 39% tariff imposed by the United States on Switzerland. In an exclusive interview with the Global Times reporter, Russ started with tariffs and speculated that "Trump may want to sell weapons to Switzerland or transfer several factories to the United States", but he denied that a series of measures by the United States would affect the development of the global AI field. Russ is also the founder of Supertrends, a future information forecasting company. In his new book "Super Intelligence and the Future-Cosmic Evolution, Technological Trends and the Future of Humanity", he predicts that human beings will integrate and develop with AI. In the interview, Russ repeatedly cited detailed data to predict the development trend of China, the United States and Europe in the field of AI.

America¡¯s ¡°core bottleneck¡±: electricity supply

Global Times: During US President Trump's recent visit to the UK, Britain and the United States signed the "Technology Prosperity Agreement", focusing on cooperation in artificial intelligence and other technological fields. What are the leading advantages of the United States in the field of AI?

by Ras Twid:Needless to say, in the field of AI, the United States is now the global leader, and they have about 40 famous models. According to my estimation, nearly half of the top 20 artificial intelligence labs in the world are in the United States. In addition, private investment in the United States is also very strong. Last year, the United States invested a whopping $109 billion in artificial intelligence, which is more than any other country. David Sachs, who was nominated by Trump as the first White House "Director of Artificial Intelligence and Cryptocurrency Affairs", is a veteran entrepreneur. In terms of technology investment, the United States has experienced talent resources.

But there is also a clear shortage in the United States. Former Google CEO Schmidt has frequently highlighted a key issue: power supply. According to the estimates of the newly planned AI data center in the United States, its total power consumption in 2030 will be equivalent to the power generation of 100 standard nuclear power plants. But currently there is no nuclear project building plan in the United States that matches it, and about 70% of power demand is expected to depend on natural gas generation. Top innovators and entrepreneurs generally view power supply as a core bottleneck for scale expansion.

Global Times: Compared to the huge investment of the United States, statistics show that the EU plus the UK¡¯s investment in AI in 2023 is only about €9 billion.

by Ras Twid:When I give speeches around the world, questions from American and Chinese audiences usually focus on "which technology fields have the most development prospects" or "what direction should I choose to start a business"; In Europe, the question is more "don't you think this technology is dangerous" or "should we limit its development". There is indeed a widespread "culture of skepticism" about technology in Europe. European people are very concerned about information security, worried about being manipulated by false information, and full of anxiety about unemployment.

In my book "Innovative Society" published a few years ago, I pointed out that an ideal innovation ecosystem needs to have the elements of scientific research institutions, start-ups, regulatory authorities, multinational companies and a high-quality financial environment. The absence of any link will significantly weaken the overall innovation ability. At present, the United States has all the elements, while Europe only has some conditions in some regions.

However, Europe is not without advantage. Switzerland, for example, has the third (eighth) supercomputer in Europe, the anti-monopoly regulatory department of multinational corporations such as Google/Microsoft/IBM, and top universities such as the Zurich Federal Institute of Technology. Switzerland is like a ¡°mini-universe¡±. The United States has more innovation clusters: Silicon Valley, Dallas, Boston and other regions have a complete ecosystem. The legislative environment is equally crucial. The EU has announced artificial intelligence policies, which largely reflect the EU¡¯s defensive mindset, with a lot of provisions focusing on ¡°the field of AI prohibition¡±, but the advantage is that it provides a unified framework for many countries, and Switzerland is also actively adapting to this policy.

China's strategic advantages: energy security and talent reserves

Global Times: The BBC that the Trump administration released a ¡°AI Action Plan¡± when it was in office for just six months to secure the leadership of the United States over China in the field of AI.

by Ras Twid:Supertrends predicts that by 2030, the pattern will change significantly: the U.S. share will drop to 45%, China will rise to 30%. Currently, the U.S. has about 40 key AI models, and China, I estimate, has 15. Among the world¡¯s top 20 AI laboratories, although precision is difficult to quantify, China should occupy 3 to 4 seats. The research strength of universities such as Beijing University, the academic contribution of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Automation Institute, plus the technological breakthroughs of 100 degrees, Alibaba and other companies, together constitute a multi-dimensional platform for China¡¯s AI development.

China has shown significant strategic advantages in two major areas: the first is energy security. China is efficiently solving power supply problems. Last year, China invested more in energy transformation than the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom combined; The second is the talent pool. China has gathered a large number of STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) educational resources. Not only do young students give priority to these disciplines, but the Chinese leadership also attaches great importance to the cultivation of scientific and technological talents.

Global Times: What do you think of the current ecology of China's AI commercial application field?

by Ras Twid:China¡¯s situation in the field of commercial applications is very good, allowing hardware manufacturers to be close to software developers will have a huge advantage. China has a good record in large-scale manufacturing of smart hardware, and prices are very competitive. Taking cosmetic technology¡¯s robots as an example, its products show a stunning level of technology. It should be emphasized that commercial breakthrough innovation is accelerating, and it is expected that by 2027-2028, products including smart robots will really open up to large-scale commercialization. Of course, chips are temporarily China¡¯s shortboard, but China is more inclined to remain strategically patient and strive to build an independent technology system. I think that China will the pursuit of the chip field, but this is not easy ¨C it may still take about five years to truly catch up with the level of the Ind

¡°China¡¯s infrastructure development is incredible.¡±

Global Times: Have you ever used Chinese artificial intelligence products like DeepSeek?

by Ras Twid:I have DeepSeek installed on my phone. In many scenarios, I feel that it is almost no different from ChatGPT, Grok (AI assistant developed by xAI) or Gemini (AI assistant by Google).

I vividly remember when DeepSeek first launched, traffic almost crippled the server. I once participated in an internal discussion, and people in the industry focused on the compactness of this model and many subtle improvements. At the beginning, many people speculated that DeepSeek may have invested huge sums of money and computing power, but later the paper published by the developer elaborated on the technical path, which fully proved China's strength in the software field.

Global Times: Can you describe your impression of China in three words?

by Ras Twid:Last year I came to China twice, to Guangzhou, Shanghai, and to Hong Kong again. The first thing that impressed me was the Chinese hard work. I can clearly feel that the Chinese generally strive to create value for customers. The second highlight is China's focus on high-tech, the Chinese are full of love for new technology, and Europe tends to be more skeptical (except for Switzerland). The third point is the orientation, China through a clear strategy, striving to good development in different fields of technology. It is worth mentioning that my daughter often comes to China because of work relationships, during the last 12 years, she has been going back to China three or four times a year, she said to me: "You have to see, China's basic development is simply unthinkable."