This article was published exclusively on Tencent News

Author: Zhao Zhao

The diplomatic wrestling to recognize the Palestinian state entered a new phase this week. Next Monday, September 22nd, the 80th UN General Assembly high-level international meeting on the "two-state solution" will be held soon. Previously, a group of EU countries led by France had promised to formally recognize Palestine at the meeting. According to the Times, Britain is also preparing to officially recognize the Palestinian state this weekend after Trump leaves Britain after his visit. On the other hand, under diplomatic pressure from the United States and Israel, the Japanese government announced that it "will not recognize Palestine". For a time, whether to recognize Palestine as an independent and sovereign country has become the core issue of a new round of games on the international political arena.

Recognizing the role of Palestine and the UN General Assembly within and outside

Since the outbreak of a new Pakistan-Israel conflict in 2023, the peace process in the Middle East has again been hindered, and the implementation of the "two-country plan" is far from overdue. As the Palestinian conflict and the resulting humanitarian crisis slowed to spread, the ¡°recognized issue¡± of Palestine has gradually become a key area for the international community to pressure Israel and promote reconciliation.

In recent months, European countries such as Britain, France, France, Australia and Beijing have declared that they would recognize Palestine¡¯s sovereign status unless the Israeli government reached a ceasefire agreement and made peaceful commitments; the European Parliament has adopted a resolution calling on EU member states to ¡°consider recognition of the Palestinian state in order to a two-state solution¡±; and the UN General Assembly has also adopted the New York Declaration in support of a peaceful settlement on the Palestinian issue and the implementation of the ¡°two-state plan.¡± The call from the European Union and the United Nations is increasingly strong and clear: a lasting peace plan for the turbulent Middle East must be found, and only a ¡°two-country¡± solution, rather than military occupation and territorial annexation, is a viable solution.

Faced with the condemnation of the world opinion and diplomatic action, the Israeli government has announced that it is possible The annexation of large parts of the West Bank, inhibiting the process of establishing a Palestinian state, while also rushing to international recognition of the ¡°knocking in the cradle¡± before the General Assembly is convened and the official statements of countries are made.The two countries have also repeatedly criticized that recognizing a Palestinian state plan could have ¡°catastrophic consequences¡± and put pressure on potential members of the ¡°Recognize the Alliance¡±. Germany and Italy have been more cautious about this, opposing immediate unilateral recognition, while Japan has announced that it is not prepared to recognize Palestine at the UN General Assembly.

The country¡¯s ¡°dramatic¡± diplomatic shift in recent months is largely attributable to the humanitarian crisis caused by Israel¡¯s relentless and unconstrained military action ¨C the UN General Assembly, the UN Human Rights Council, the International Court of Justice and the International Committee of the Red Cross have expressed condemnation and concern for the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip, the genocide atrocities. The Guardian and the Washington Post believe that the scale of civilian casualties and the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip in the international media has raised a significant amount of sympathy in the main Western societies, with political pressure forcing governments to take meaningful practical action in attempting to ¡°balance the tree¡± between Israel and the Washington Post. As the Israeli government¡¯s military, political and territorial policies become increasingly radical, a growing number of countries believe that recognizing Palestine to force Israel to ease its stance is the last chance to ¡°brake¡± before the ¡°two-state plan¡± completely loses room for survival.

02What is admission and why should you admit it?

Recognition of Palestine is undoubtedly a strong international political colour, but in itself, recognition is also a state legal act bound by existing international law and jurisdiction.

International jurist Rutherford uses three typical scenarios to portray the issue of recognition as a ¡°entry permit¡± in a play, both about identity and legitimacy, and more about whether a country can be ¡°seen¡± in the international community:First, when a new country first enters the stage, it encounters the recognition of national status; Second, when the legal and political order is broken by the revolution and the country faces internal and external difficulties, recognition is transformed into government recognition; Third, when the smoke of civil war fills the air, recognition becomes recognition of warring groups.

On the question of Palestine, recognition is more manifested as "national recognition" of a new country: the existing members of the international community announce to the world through legal acts that they believe that a new political community has the due qualifications in international law, and can be regarded as a legitimate object of international communication, transforming "objective facts" into "legal status". According to the standards established in Article 1 of the Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Obligations of States in 1933, if a political entity meets four requirements, it basically conforms to the legitimacy of a sovereign state-fixed population, definite territory, government and foreign communication ability (or sovereignty).In the absence of any of these four points, no political entity can be considered a sovereign state, for example, colonial states lack independent sovereignty with only population, territory, government, and "partisan organizations" such as the Maltese Knights have no defined territory, etc.

Does the four elements of a sovereign state mean that if these conditions are met, a political entity can be regarded as a sovereign state? Declare (Declaratory Theory)The view that a new country is not a country, regardless of what others say, but whether it has already had the above hardware conditions; once it has, then regardless of whether others recognize it or not, it is already a country, and the recognition of other countries is more similar to "polite congratulations" and " congratulations on joining", which is also closer to the logic behind the Montevideo Convention; according to Theory of Constitution (Constitutive Theory)Understanding, recognition is like a paper with a legal effect "pass", without it, even if it holds four criteria, can not join the club of the international community.

In this regard, the two theories are very clear about the advantages of different countries: for the third world (or global south) countries that have liberated themselves from the colonial state, the proclamation theory is more suitable for their effective participation in the international community, avoiding the actual need to be ignored by the bowels of the great powers, and also for the recognition of the Palestinian state.

Of course, because there is currently no global authoritative "tribunal" that can finally announce who is the real country, in reality, the existing country performs this function, and its legal reasoning is also highly different.As scholar Christopher Bogan pointed out, the recognition process is inevitably influenced by politics, and countries may make recognition decisions based on strategic interests, ideological consistency or economic incentives. This selective approach can lead to inconsistency-recognizing some countries while refusing to recognize others under similar conditions, which is not uncommon in "fragmented" international law and "anarchy" international politics.

03Should Palestine be recognized?

Palestine¡¯s move to the international stage was a process of continuing to struggle for self-determination and national status under colonial and geopolitical pressure, and a slow process of trying to ¡°be seen by more people¡± in struggle and struggle. At the beginning of the 20th century, the Palestinian National Assembly demanded to get out of British custody and independence, but the UK failed to fulfill the Belfort Declaration¡¯s promise and support Jewish immigration. In 1947, the United Nations adopted a division plan that proposed the establishment of a Jewish state and an Arab state, but triggered the First Middle East War in 1948, with hundreds of thousands of Palestinians becoming refugees. In 1964, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) was established, and in 1988 the Today, the Palestinian state has been recognized by 147 of the 193 members of the United Nations.So, according to the aforementioned "four elements" rule, should today's Palestine be recognized as a sovereign country?

First, the ¡°fixed population¡± is undoubted.

The long-term stability of Palestinian populations in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem constitutes the core conditions for a ¡°fixed population.¡±

Secondly, there is much more controversy about the ¡°defined territory.¡±

In 1947, UN General Assembly Resolution 181 (also known as the Palestinian-Israeli Partition Resolution) provided a blueprint for the territorial division between the two countries. However, since the first Middle East war, the territorial border between the two countries has been undecided for a long time, and the territorial occupation caused by armed conflicts is quite unstable. The Oslo Accords signed by Palestine and Israel in 1993 established the Palestinian National Authority (PA), giving it limited autonomy in the West Bank and Gaza, but did not touch on fundamental issues such as borders, refugees or the status of Jerusalem. In this agreement, the West Bank is divided into three areas-Area A, B and C, of which Area C is completely under Israeli administrative and security control. The most radical occupation plan this time may take full control of Area C, which accounts for 60% of the territory.

In recent years, with the expansion of Israeli military presence and settlements, Palestinian territories have shown fragmential characteristics, and blurred borders have become serious real obstacles. Although the International Court of Justice and UN resolutions have repeatedly affirmed the territorial integrity of Palestine, emphasizing that the occupation will not change the territorial characteristics, the problem is that the state should not only ¡°have a piece of land¡± but that the land should be as clearly as possible and sufficiently defined to support stable governance.Some of the countries that have already recognized Palestine as a sovereign state, such as Spain, Norway and Ireland, see territorial fragmentation as not a deadly obstacle in itself, but in the long run it remains a central problem for Palestine to be universally recognized and to have a sovereign state.

Having said that, it is not difficult to understand the intention of the Israeli government to hastily formulate a plan to occupy the West Bank-in international law, territory is an indispensable element for the establishment and recognition of a country.Although the government in exile during World War II and today's small island countries were submerged by sea level, many scholars put forward the "continuity theory" that "once you have a territory, it will not affect the national qualification if you lose it", But for Palestine, which is still in an ambiguous zone and needs international recognition, losing a large area of land under the mark of the national power institution is undoubtedly a huge challenge.

Third, the ¡°government¡± in Palestine is already formed.

There has always been a political institution, from the PA to the Palestinian National Authority, an external representative of Palestine, which exercises jurisdiction over it internally. However, some questions have pointed out that this ¡°government¡± is not unified, stable and effective ¨C from the external point of view, most of the West Bank is under Israeli control, and the power of the Palestinian National Authority is limited by Israel¡¯s ongoing occupation and military presence, which both hampers its effective governance and undermines its legitimacy among the Palestinian people; from the internal discrepancy, the most densely populated Gaza area is under Hamas¡¯ control, while Fatah and Hamas have long been opposed, affecting its representation as a ¡°single government¡±.

Luckily it is, The Montevideo Convention does not require a ¡°fully effective¡± government.In practice, many new countries have also been recognized in the absence of full control (e.g. Timor-Leste, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo).The United Nations and the World Bank report also pointed out that the governance of the Palestinian national authorities in education, health, finance, etc. has reached ¡°national levels¡±.

Fourth, the diplomatic capacity is widely recognized.

Although the diplomatic powers of the Palestinian National Authority remain legally restricted by the Oslo Accords, However, in fact, Palestine has engaged in a lot of international law activities such as contracting, diplomacy and litigationMore importantly, Resolution 67/19 of the UN General Assembly granted Palestine the status of ¡°non-member observer state¡± in 2012, enabling it to participate in the General Assembly debate and join international treaties; and in 2015, Palestine joined the International Criminal Court (ICC), enabling it to prosecute Israel¡¯s war crimes.

What are the risks of recognizing Palestine?

In the labyrinth of international law, recognition of Palestine is not a straight path, and there are many twists and risks.This is also the main reason why many pro-Israeli scholars and politicians have repeatedly declared that ¡°the Palestine is in breach of international law.¡± On the issue of state recognition, one of the main illegal acts is ¡°preterm recognition¡± ¨C recognition that if a community is hasty to do so before it is truly a state, it is likely to directly affect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the mother country and is considered an inappropriate interference in the internal affairs of that country.

At the same time, acknowledging a country that has not really stood on its feet is equivalent to forcibly packaging political desires into legal realities, weakening the basic logic of international law. In the critically criticized ¡°Kosovo Consultative Opinion¡±, although the International Court has avoided this issue, most countries still emphasize that premature acknowledgment of an entity that has not yet met the status of a state is difficult to compatible with the principles of international law. On the recognition of many new countries born after the breakup of North Cyprus, Rhodesia, South Ossetia and Yugoslavia, the ghost of ¡°preterm acknowledgment¡± revolves, raising legal controversy.

In 2004 and 2024, at the request of the United Nations, the International Court of Justice issued two authoritative advisory opinions, legally recognizing the inherent and inalienable ¡°right of national self-determination¡± of the Palestinian people, strongly condemning Israel¡¯s continued control and illegal occupation of Palestinian territories, and declaring a series of occupation measures and policies against the Palestinians in violation of international human rights and humanitarian law. Many international legal scholars argue that the responsibility for the currently lacking ¡°state element¡± in Palestine lies externally rather than internally, so the UN¡¯s commitment, recognition, and reaffirmation of its right to self-determination is sufficient to fill this risk or insufficiency legally.

What does recognition bring to Palestine?

In any case, recognition, as an important act with both international politics and international law gestures, will have a series of symbolic or substantive effects. Even at the most formal level, as the number of countries recognizing Palestine increases, and bilateral and multilateral diplomacy based on recognition becomes increasingly frequent, the risk of Palestine being completely "cleared" will decrease. As The Atlantic pointed out, although recognizing Palestine is unlikely to bring about short-term visible changes in the pattern of the Middle East, at least it is "a key step towards the two-state solution".

Andre Norkemper, an international law scholar, pointed out that if Palestine is widely recognized as a sovereign state, international law will more effectively protect Palestinian territory and Palestinian people, change the relationship between Palestine and Israel in lasting peace negotiations, promote Palestine's full participation in international social affairs, join the United Nations and have full voting rights. In internal affairs, recognition can also help the Palestinian government, which is almost ineffective at present, to exercise jurisdiction over its territory and people. As the scope and depth of the ¡°Recognize Alliance¡± expands, the international community becomes increasingly unhappy with Israel¡¯s policies and sanctions, and even the Israeli government has to acknowledge that the country is falling into ¡°isolation¡± that could last for years and will have to rely on itself in the future.

It is foreseeable that the recognition of Palestine by the international community, as has been the case with all emerging nations on the international stage in history, will inevitably be accompanied by turmoil. International law is not a clear, authoritative domestic legal system, and many countries will interpret and apply international law in their favour, which will also add to the complexity of recognition problems. The historical trend is mighty, and those who follow it will prosper and those who go against it will perish. Most countries in the international community, including China, are committed to providing a more fair, just, cooperative and open international order, and the Palestinian people will inevitably become an equal member of this new order.