There are 3 days!On September 17th, the United States will give TikTok a “final ultimatum”.Either sell the U.S. business, or go straight down.
This happened almost a year ago, and the Trump administration has a third card deadline. As a result, just three days before the deadline, the leaders of China and the United States suddenly arrived in Madrid, SpainWe closed the door and talked for about six hours.。
The US talks.
First, the Madrid talks focused on three "burning eyebrows" things-
In fact, this is not the first time that China and the United States have met in Europe this year. From Geneva in May, London in June to Stockholm in July, they chatted every month, just like "monthly punch-in".
But this Madrid talks are different, because all three things have reached the "deadline countdown", and if each thing is not negotiated well, it may affect the whole body.
The first thing is TikTok: America is going to “delay” again?
The most eye-catching is the three-day countdown of TikTok.The U.S. has always said that it is “preoccupied with data security”, forcing bytes to sell the U.S. business, otherwise it won’t let 1.5 billion U.S. users use it.
But think carefully, 1.5 billion people browse TikTok every day, and more than 200,000 people make money from it (such as making live broadcasts, selling goods), and the Americans are the first to refuse.
TikTok is the heart of American netizens.
The White House itself quietly opened an official TikTok account in August this year. Isn't this a slap in the face?
So this meeting, everyone guessed, “the United States wants to find a ladder and continue to postpone.”
The Chinese side also made it clear: We will firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of our own enterprises and urge the United States to provide a non-discriminatory business environment for Chinese enterprises operating in the United States.
Moreover, if bytes are really sold, it also involves technology exports, which require approval from China. We cannot let the United States say whatever it is.
Looking at it now, the extension is basically a certainty, that is, to put it another way, "discuss it again", so as to avoid the step of being removed from the shelves.
Trump himself is forbidden.
[The second thing is tariffs: the "temporary truce" before Christmas, no one wants to lift the table first]
There is a more practical thing: the second round of tariff suspension between China and the United States will expire on November 12th.
Previously, in order to allow Americans to buy cheap Chinese home appliances and toys for Christmas, the United States suspended the high tariff of 24%. Now, it is necessary to stock up for Christmas season. If the tariff is restored, the shopping cost of the American people will increase again.
Therefore, one of the topics of the talks that cannot be avoided is that the "tariff cease-fire" has been established first.
Both sides, however, kept an eye on the 10 percent “basic tariff” not canceled, meaning “I don’t raise the price, but don’t want to let me completely get rid of it,” while retaining each other’s tariff code.
Sino-US economic and trade exchanges are close
And the third thing is the chip: the U.S. just “carted the neck”, China is “contra-investigation”
The most powerful sword is the chip. Two days before the talks, the United States suddenly put 23 Chinese companies on the “black list”.Among them, 13 are semiconductor companies。
China is uncertain, though.Announced the launch of anti-dumping and anti-discrimination investigations into U.S. measuresIf you don’t let me buy the device, I’ll check if the chips you’ve sold are dumped at low prices.
This is seen as “the stronger of each other”, in fact, is a “life and death game” in the field of technology.
The United States is afraid that Chinese chip technology will catch up, and China will not cut off the industry chain because of the American card neck.
Overall, the four talks over the past six months are actually quietly defining the “new rules”.
No matter how the two sides play the game now, it is "competition within controllable range".
Sino-US relations
First of all, why do we always talk about Europe?
The four meetings, Geneva, London, Stockholm, Madrid, all in Europe.
On the one hand, Europe wants to be a “intermediary”Spain, for example, intended to arrange talks here, in order to tell the world, "I can help the great powers to communicate", to raise their position;
On the other hand, Europe is also a “stakeholder”.U.S. card Chinese chip neck, European light engraving giant Asma, can not sell the equipment, the loss is heavy.
So Europe also wants to push China to talk well, don't even tire yourself.
The European light engraving giant Asma.
Second, the “temperature difference” spoken by China and the United States hides the most core contradictions.
After every conversation, the words were different.
The United States always refers to "national security", relying on TikTok and chips to "security";
China bluntly said, "Don't use economy and trade as a political tool." Tariffs and sanctions are all business matters, so don't talk about anything else.
This is not a simple “difference,” but a big difference in cognition: the United States wants to bind “do business” and “defense China” together, while China wants “business to business, competition to competition.”
The current talks are actually running in this difference-although it has not been resolved, at least we know where the bottom line of the other party is.
US Treasury Secretary Besson.
Finally, "exchanging time for space": no result is also a result.
These four meetings, each time there was no "once and for all" plan, all "delayed" and "reconsidered".
But don’t underestimate this “no result”, it’s actually “changing space with time.”
For example, TikTok postponement can give the byte time to find a response; tariffs postponement can let the enterprise breathe; the chip although not negotiated, but at least not immediately upgraded the conflict.
For ordinary people, this “slow-paced game” is much better than “break your face at once.”
TikTok is integrated into everyday life.
Some may think that China and the United States are all talking about "big powers", and it doesn't matter to themselves.
These three things will affect your life:
First, don’t think TikTok is just used to brush pieces, it’s also about the employment and income of hundreds of thousands of people.
If they were really forced to sell, not only would these people be unemployed, but it would be even harder for us to get out of the sea with our Chinese apps.
If the U.S. tastes the sweetheads of “forcing companies to sell”, next time it may be the turn of other software.
Trump and Team Members
Second, the neck of the chip card is not just as simple as "slowing up the phone."
The most direct impact of the U.S. card on China's chip neck is that the prices of mobile phones and computers may rise, but the deeper problem is the "rice bowl" problem.
If China could break through chip technology, not only would it be able to get rid of the neck, but also to create more high-paying jobs.
Third, the tug-of-war of tariffs has the most intuitive impact on consumers.
For example, the United States added tariffs on Chinese goods, the final payment is actually the American people, but the tariffs countered by China will also increase the price of American agricultural products and automobiles.
Now, the two sides’ “cessation of war” is actually a “win-win tacit agreement” – the price of American cars you buy has not risen, and the price of Chinese appliances that Americans buy has not risen.
Trump wants to meet with China.
Do not miss two important moments.
This meeting in Madrid has paved the way for the following two important issues:
APEC Summit at the end of October.U.S. President Trump can't wait, and plans to go out personally and talk face to face with China to come up with some substantive results;
The other is the expiration date of the 12th of November.At that time, the tariffs will either continue to be postponed and suspended, or they can be completely revoked.
Regardless of the final outcome, one thing is certain: the current game of China and the United States has turned from "either good or bad" to "fighting and not breaking".
For us ordinary people, there is no need to worry too much about “the sky turns over at once”, but know that every conversation between the great powers is quietly shaping your future life.
It may be that what you buy is not expensive, it may be that you are looking for a job or it may be that the app in your phone is still not available.
Tariffs are closely related to our lives.
So the next time you see the “Sino-American Talks” news, don’t go straight away, pay more attention to both eyes ——which may hide little clues about your future life.