South Korea's foreign minister, Zhao Zhao, had just talked in Beijing against trade protectionism, and Lee turned his head and said to the United States "stay on the side", which is the opposite, what is the calculation?

South Korean Foreign Minister Zhao Zhao made a visit to China on the 18th.

On the same day, Wang Yi and South Korean Foreign Minister Zhao Zhao held talks in Beijing, and the two sides agreed to oppose trade protectionism and safeguard the free trade system.

Interestingly, the same day as Zhao was leaving Beijing, Li was interviewed by the American magazine Time. While saying that "South Korea will side with the United States", it also emphasizes that "we should find a balance between China and the United States" and wants to take the "third way".

South Korea's diplomatic attitude appears to be "divided", and what is hidden behind is the reality that South Korea cannot escape.

When it comes to Korean diplomacy, it is often heard that "security depends on the United States and economy depends on China".

But few people ask, is this model initiated by South Korea, or is it forced by the geological environment?

From a security point of view, the Korean-American alliance has been adjusted since 1953, and now there are 2,8 million U.S. troops in South Korea, the annual "free shield" military exercises are unmovable, and more than 70% of South Korea's defense equipment technology must rely on the United States.

If South Korea pulls out of the United States and faces the North Korean nuclear issue, will it be able to stabilize itself?

China is South Korea's largest trading partner. The original balance of "security depends on the United States and economy depends on China" can be maintained before, but since this year, it has become increasingly untenable.

The U.S. "Indo-Pacific Strategy" is steadfast, and there are more and more demands for South Korea, and this is the direct reason why Lee is going to take the "third road".

But ¡°choose America¡± and ¡°to balance¡±, can Lee¡¯s calculation really be done?

Lee said on the day that the South Korean Foreign Minister was leaving Beijing, "Korea stands on the side of the United States," and did not say it.

From a U.S. perspective, one is to strengthen the Korean-American alliance, and the second is to respond to the U.S. ¡°Chip Quartet Alliance¡±.

In August, the United States invited South Korea to join the upgraded semiconductor control, asking South Korea to restrict exports of advanced chips to China.

Lee was loyal at this time, and probably wanted to change the American slump, for example, to reduce the car tariffs.

But what is interesting is that while "choosing the United States", Lee Jae-myung also said that "we should properly handle relations with China".

This has exposed South Korea¡¯s unavoidable economic pressure.

When Zhao Zhao and Wang Yi talked, he specifically mentioned ¡°opposition to trade protectionism¡±, saying in the end, South Korea is afraid to really stand up with the United States, and has lost China this big market.

Now, it seems that Lee Jae-myung's choice of the "third way" is not just shouting slogans. He wants South Korea to be a "bridge between the East and the West" and find opportunities from it.

For example, in APEC, South Korea took the initiative to propose "coordinating the positions of China and the United States" and promoted the focus on "supply chain resilience" this year and next. This is not only in line with part of the United States' idea of "de-Chinaization of the supply chain", but also allows Korean companies to participate more in the Asia-Pacific supply chain, isn't this just how both sides want to take advantage of it?

On September 16, Xi Jinping awarded the title of "Honorary Citizens" to the Chinese Maritime Police, saying that it was civilian interaction, but also Li was releasing a signal that he did not want China to get stuck, to reflect "balance".

But whether the "third path" can go on, the key is to look at the Chinese-US attitude, and how the trilateral relationship has changed.

On China's side, although it has concerns about South Korea's "choice of the United States", it has no intention of giving up cooperation.

During the talks, Wang Yi mentioned that "jointly defending the victory achievements of the Second World War" both cared for South Korea's attention to historical issues, but also left room for regional security cooperation.

In addition, China did not close its doors to South Korea's semiconductor enterprises, and in July, Chinese and South Korean enterprises also signed a $1.2 billion round labor agreement, which shows that the economic interests of the two countries are still bound together and are not so easy to separate.

The United States¡¯ attitude is complex.

On the one hand, for South Korea to be the "front" in the "Indo-Pacific", on the other hand, it is afraid that South Korea will go too close to China, affecting its own plans to contain China.

The Supply Chain Security Report, released by the US Department of Commerce in August, specifically listed South Korea's semiconductor exports to China as "risk points".

This is enough to show that the United States both wants to take advantage of South Korea and does not want to let South Korea independently decide its relationship with China.

On the other hand, South Korea has little trouble.

domestic political unity.In mid-September, far-right groups went to the United States to scold Lee Jae-myung for "election fraud" and said that his "compromise with China harmed the Korea-US alliance". Although it didn't make a big fuss, it can be seen that pro-American forces don't recognize his "balance" policy.

The second is North Korea.The situation on the peninsula continues to be tense, and the United States rushes to hold military exercises muscles to tell South Korea that they can't stay away from U.S. security protection.

So where is Korea going next?

Li in Ming's "Third Road", saying that in the end, it is South Korea in the game of China and the United States, to understand the trouble of "security based on the United States and the economy based."

The United States wants to tie South Korea to its own chariot and will not let South Korea get too close to China; China is an important economic partner of South Korea, and South Korea dare not tear its face with China; There are domestic forces holding back, and there are security threats from North Korea around them.

Together, Li Zaiming's "balance" has been maintained.

In the short term, South Korea may also engage in the vague strategy of "loyalty to the United States and cooperation with China".

For example, in the field of semiconductors, it slightly cooperates with U.S. control, but does not completely cut off cooperation with China; At the same time, we will rely on non-governmental interaction and economic and trade negotiations to preserve the Chinese market.

But in the long run, if the competition between China and the United States continues to intensify, will South Korea still be able to "take good on both sides"?

In the end, they are afraid to have to make this choice.

What impact will South Korea's choice have on Sino-US-ROK relations and the Asia-Pacific pattern? I'm afraid this is the next most concerned issue.