The fourth round of China-U.S. trade negotiations are destined to be recorded in the history, China successively throws out Wang and the United States wants to increase sanctions and try China's retaliatory means in advance.
The first-day talks between the US and China in Madrid in Spain have ended, but China has thrown out two “king blows.”
The first is to conduct an anti-dumping investigation on the U.S. analogue chip industry, during the application investigation period, the price of products originating in the U.S. decreased significantly, the dumping scale of exports to China exceeded 300%, accounting for the Chinese market share of an average of 41% annually.
The second is that the State Administration for Market Regulation of China announced that Nvidia violated the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China and related announcements, and will conduct further investigations.
NVIDIA was accused of failing to comply with additional restrictive conditions in the acquisition of the shares of MICROSOFT Technology Limited.
One thing these two things have in common is the US technology hegemony.
In the past, the United States always blocked China's science and technology. We made representations to the United States and appealed to the WTO, but often failed.
Now China and the United States conduct the fourth round of trade talks in Spain, and China, despite the negotiating atmosphere, has successively thrown out two Wang shots, which is of great significance.
According to the Antimonopoly Investigation,The investigation is seen as a response to the U.S. chip export ban, such as the 2024 scale restriction on high-performance processors, which could stimulate the development of domestic Chinese chip companies.
According to relevant laws, if the investigation confirms the violation, Nvidia may face a fine of up to 10% of its sales in China.
China is Nvidia's second largest market in the world, accounting for about 20% of its revenue in fiscal year 2024, and potential fines may exceed US $1 billion.
From the perspective of analog chips,China has a low degree of nationalization in this area and a high level of market dependence.
Through anti-dumping investigations, it can create a buffer space for domestic enterprises to prevent low-cost dumping by U.S. enterprises from suppressing the growth of Chinese domestic enterprises.
From a long-term strategic point of view, the United States has long been using export controls, investment restrictions and other means to contain China's semiconductor industry, which is China's counter-instrument.
This anti-dumping investigation is both a trade counteraction and an industrial support and a strategic declaration.
Its significance is not only at the tariff level, but also to put pressure on the United States through rules and means to strive for the development space of China's analog chip industry. At the same time, it reminds the United States that China is not without means to deal with it.
In particular, we have noticed that the United States is actively wooing its Western allies, including the European Union, the Group of Seven and even NATO, to promote "secondary tariffs" on China within the framework of these allies.
Because China imports Russian oil and natural gas, it will be a killer to China, and the U.S. attitude is to threaten to impose a maximum of 100% tariffs.
Then China’s early counter-action would make more sense.
U.S. allies have had to consider China’s technological hegemony against the United States, and if they follow the U.S. to raise tariffs on China, then China will either peer-to-peer investigate their investments in China, thus disrupting the cohesion of the U.S. alliance.
China's early countermeasures are not only a tactical response, but also an expression of strategic confidence: under the pressure of the United States to attract its allies, "secondary tariffs", China has given itself an insurance in advance.
If the Sino-U.S. trade negotiations are successful, this so-called “second-tier tariff” may not be achieved; otherwise, China will accelerate the rise of domestic chip replacement.