The Russian-Ukrainian war has been going on for so long, from 2014 in Crimea, to 2022 in massive battle, now 2025 and no head yet.But one day it will end, not Russia wins is Ukraine wins, or some kind of compromise.But no matter how it ends, a bunch of countries will be involved, some may end directly.

First of all, let¡¯s talk about the background, so that everyone doesn¡¯t feel suddenly. Russia, in essence, wants to retain its influence and not let the West come close to its doorstep. The West is there, supporting Ukraine, and feels that Russia is too hegemonic. Since Yanukovych came to power in 2014, Crimea was annexed by Russia, Donbass began to fight, and Russia¡¯s relations with the West dropped in a straight line.

Everyone worked together, the gas pipeline went through Europe, the enterprises invested in each other, and now it was cool. After the start of the war in 2022, the sanctions flew full and the relations frozen into ice. The war ended, and whoever won rebuilt the surrounding pattern, and those who depend on Russia or blocked it, things happened easily.

If Russia wins, the first unfortunate will definitely be Ukraine. It's not a joke, Russia has been staring at Ukraine's land from the beginning. In 2022, they publicly claimed to take down the four states of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Helsinki, plus the early Crimea, which has bitten a large piece of Ukraine.

Many analysts on the Internet say that if Russia really defeats the Ukrainian army, Putin's nationalist voices will rise and will not stop in those states. There is a trend of thought in Russia that Ukraine should not have been independent in the first place. It was created by Lenin in the Soviet era.

Putin himself said this in his speech in February 2022. Although historians don't admit it, it reflects their mentality. If Russia takes control of Kiev and even pushes it westward to Lviv, Ukraine will exist in name only as an independent country. Think about it. Ukraine has lost its eastern industrial zone and Black Sea ports. The rest of the economy is paralyzed, the population is flowing out, and the government cannot function.

Internationally, the West may continue to support it, but when the Russian army gains a firm foothold there, Ukraine will have to face the reality of being divided. Some reports mention that the Russian radicals want to bring all the East Slavs together to build a great empire. This trend is in the limelight, and everyone from Putin to the military leader is affected. Finland, too, has to be worried.

Finland joined NATO in 2023, had been neutral for years, and suddenly turned around, because the Russian invasion of Ukraine frightened them. Russia warned from the beginning, saying it would have serious consequences. The Baltic Sea is now almost entirely in the hands of NATO, Russia's St. Petersburg and the Arctic exit is exposed. If Russia was to pull out of Ukraine, the army turned north, the Finnish army though well-equipped, but few people, the country's active service is only twenty-three thousand, against the Russian million troops, the gap is too big.

There are military experts analyzing online that Russia may use hybrid warfare, border pressure, and even a small-scale invasion, Finland cannot stop.In history, Finland and the Soviet Union played the Winter War, but now the size is unequal, Russia won Ukraine, morale rose, Finland became the next target.

In other ways, if Ukraine wins and Russia loses, then the Belarusian regime of Lukashenko is in danger. Lukashenko came to power in 1994 and wears a pants with Russia. After the 2020 election, the domestic turmoil, he relies on Putin to stabilize. In 2022, the Russian army battled Kiev from the territory of Belarus, this is what the Ukrainians remember. The Belarusian army is weak, the country is tens of thousands, old equipment, and the economy also relies on Russian blood transfusion.

If Russia did not take care, Belarus could not bear Ukraine's retaliation at all. Ukraine now has millions of troops, long through the sandfields, and the border of Belarus has been pushed over. Online reports say that Belarus has already had opposition groups on the Ukrainian side, the Kanuski regiment what, thousands of people, after the war back to the mess, Lukashenko can not sit down. His biggest backbone is Russian nuclear weapons and troops, Russia has lost, all of these are gone, Belarus may change directly, the new government is pro-West.

Another is the place along the Dnieper River, called the Left, separated from Moldova in 1992, not recognized by the United Nations, was supported by Russia. There are Russian troops stationed, blocking Moldova and Romania. During the war, Russian troops were pumped to the Ukrainian front, and the Left is now very empty. Only a few thousand people armed with no heavy weapons.

Ukraine won, Russia couldn¡¯t protect, Ukraine crushed from the east, Moldova united from the west, the left is gone.The online analysis says that this place is strategically important, control the Black Sea channel, Russia lost, here the first fell.

The national assembly in eastern Libya, the Havtar, also suffered. Havtar is an old warlord, and after the fall of Gaddafi in 2011 he built forces in the east. In 2019, he battled Tripoli, hired the Russian Wagner group to help, but in 2020 he lost. Now he relies on Russian bases and assistance to control oil fields. Russia's influence in the Middle East was dependent on Syria and Libya, and Assad's fall in the end of 2024, has lost one.

If Russia is planted in Ukraine and has no energy to control Africa, Haftar is 82 years old, he is not healthy, the power is scattered. The western government has Turkey and Qatar support, strength rises, Haftar has no Russia, weapons money is lacking, Egyptian Saudi Arabia does not like to help.

Why are these five countries or forces the easiest to perish? Because they are directly tied to the outcome of the war. Russia wins, Ukraine and Finland are front-line opponents, and Russia has to clear the field to ensure safety. If Ukraine wins, those Russian satellite countries will have no backing, and internal and external troubles will come together. The global geographical reshuffle is not only that, Iran, Houthis, Armenia, and Georgia are also affected, but not so directly.

Iran relies on Russia to sell oil to avoid sanctions. Russia is weak and Iran is isolated in the Middle East. The Houthis were fighting guerrilla warfare in Yemen, Russia lost, the West was under great pressure, and their funds were cut off. Armenia lost Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia ignored it, and the Caucasus was in chaos. Georgia wanted to be pro-Western for a long time, but Russia lost, and they were bolder.

Russia itself, will not disintegrate. Now, unlike in the Soviet era, the border region economy is broken, relying on subsidies from Moscow, the West does not want Russia to disrupt, fear of nuclear weapons spread. Ukraine lost, may really disappear, split into a few pieces. The way to end the war is also crucial, if the negotiations ceasefire, these risks are small, but overall victory, the shock is big.

Economically, the European gas shortage, Russia sold to Asia, turned to China, India. Ukraine rebuilt for money, the West came out big, but corruption problems are more. Military, NATO expansion, Russian borders are all hostile. Politically, Putin is stable, but old, successor problem. Zelensky heroes, but domestic differences are more, anti-corruption is not over.

Generally speaking, this war is not just a matter between Russia and Ukraine, but also involves the whole world. Five countries are most dangerous because of location and dependence. I hope it stops sooner and stops dying anymore.