According to the South China Morning Post, citing sources, Trump has received an invitation from China to visit, but the White House has not made a formal decision on this matter.
Because before Trump makes a decision, Trump needs China to promise two conditions before Trump formally makes a decision.
The two conditions were, respectively, increased purchases of U.S. soybean and Boeing aircraft.
It is clear that if Trump wants to visit China, it is assumed that China must accept the two conditions of the United States.
However, whether or not China invited Trump to visit China has not been confirmed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.On September 15, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the matter, saying no more information can be provided, but the communication channels between China and the United States remain open.
The statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has neither confirmed nor denied. It neither refutes Trump's face, but also leaves room for imagination for the outside world.
However, the time of Trump's visit to China is exactly the same as the time of the fourth round of China-U.S. trade negotiations, so it is not excluded that this news is Trump's self-talk.
Trump has always been quiet about negotiating this kind of thing, which is also consistent with a series of Trump practices before the negotiation.
Before the fourth round of negotiations, Trump announced that he would include more than 30 foreign entities on the "entity list", with only 23 Chinese companies on the list. It is clear that this was Trump's "vakuum branding", a way to try to get the initiative to negotiate. After this, Trump has received the news that the invitation from China is not inevitable.
The same trick may still be useful against some small countries, but it is slightly thin for evenly matched opponents.
China responded quickly, first planning to launch an anti-dumping investigation into analog chips produced in the United States. In addition, China is also taking tougher countermeasures against American AI chips.
First, the Chinese side raised questions about the safety of the NVIDIA H20 chip. The central television media "Yu Yuan Tian" also directly stated that the H20 chip is not environmentally friendly, unsafe, nor advanced, not a good choice.
However, it has also been countered by China. Many large companies have explicitly rejected Nvidia's new AI chips and turned their targets to domestic alternative products.
It shows that Trump's pressure measures have not actually played their due role.
However, from the two conditions proposed, the United States is indeed unable to bear the consequences of the trade war.
Reuters reported on September 17th that lawmakers from some Republican agricultural states have been unable to withstand the pressure and asked the Trump administration to distribute economic assistance to American farmers before the end of this year. American farmers have suffered heavy losses in this trade war launched by Trump. According to the forecast of American companies, if China still fails to purchase American soybeans before mid-November, the United States will reduce its soybean exports to China by 14 million tons to 16 million tons.
A similar situation occurred during Trump’s first term, when the U.S. government granted $23 billion in subsidies.
The scale of the trade war is much larger than during Trump’s first term, and the budget would be much larger than in the first term if the U.S. government were to subsidize farmers.
Under the pressure of many parties, Trump also promised to implement the rescue plan soon. But so far, the U.S. government has not taken any substantive action. The White House's position is also playing Tai Chi, saying that Trump is actively developing new markets, cutting taxes and signing trade agreements to help farmers, but it has not expressed its position to provide assistance to American farmers.
The reason is straightforward, the U.S. government can’t get so much money. In the big context of the trade war, the fiscal subsidies are not one-off, the longer the subsidies are, the more. Trump, thanks to the tariff war, mostly brought $2000 to $300 billion in revenue to the U.S. finance, according to this ratio to calculate, only to subsidize the U.S. farmers, will spend one-tenth of the tariff revenue. In addition to the losses of other industries, the tariff war may not only bring more fiscal revenue to the U.S. and even not deposit.
Therefore, Trump will definitely not do this. With the idea that since the problem can't be solved, the person who has caused the problem should be solved, Trump has repeatedly asked China to resume imports of American soybeans. First, China wanted to expand its soybean imports from the United States to quadruple, but China ignored it. Then he changed his mind and said twice that, but the Chinese side ignored it. Now, under the pretext of visiting China, the same price has been offered again.
In the case of Boeing, Trump is one of the two bigger.
Last year, Boeing's foreign sales flashed, with revenue in the fourth quarter falling by 31 percent, losing $38,6 billion, and losing $118 billion for the entire year.
The situation is slightly better this year. The company's revenue has increased significantly, but it is still in a state of loss. The loss in the first half of the year exceeded US $612 million.
Boeing is one of the U.S. military-industrial complexes, and the Republican firm supporter of the Iron Belt, and the main provider of Republican campaign funding.So for Boeing, Trump is almost obligatory, the U.S. F-47 project, PPT has not drawn well, has all been handed over to Boeing.
Boeing passenger aircraft completely collapsed, and China as the world's largest passenger aircraft market, China can not buy or sell how many Boeing aircraft, and even decide the death of Boeing. In order to help Boeing through the difficulties, Trump will inevitably pressure China through various means, demand China to expand imports.
From a deeper perspective, the two conditions proposed by Trump, which also indicate that Trump’s position to launch a trade war, has actually occurred a clear deviation.
Trump initially launched a tariff war, with the core goal of cutting the trade deficit, making manufacturing flow back to the United States and making the United States great again.
But from the point of view of Trump's demands, it is already to demand that China procure existing U.S. products to solve the issue of trade deficit, and the voice of manufacturing reflow is becoming weaker and weaker.
The logic behind the appearance, in fact, is that Trump has already believed that it is impossible to win the "game victory" through the tariff war, and is now looking for a ladder for himself, while maximizing the interests of the mouth.