Japan and Germany joined forces to cut off the supply of high-speed rail wheels to China, saying that they would "give money and not sell them". As a result, in less than half a year, China not only developed more advanced domestic products by itself, but also stuck the other side out of the market with technical standards.
In March of this year, Japan's Sumitomo Metals and Germany's BVV Group suddenly announcedChina has stopped supplying high-speed rail wheel core components to the Chinese car group on the grounds of "technical protection" and "supply chain security".
According to the news, Western media has speculated that this is "stopped in the neck of China's high-speed railway", and even suggested that China's high-speed railway construction may slow down.
Data shows that in 2024, China's high-speed rail wheel import dependence once reached 35%, the two companies together account for 60% of the global high-end wheel market.
But the plot turned as fast as the speed of high-speed rail.
In early September, China announced a fully autonomous "rejuvenation" ultra-high-speed wheel production downline, the performance parameters are even more demanding than the European standard: resistance to fatigue strength increased by 20%, weight reduced by 15%, cost reduced by 30%.
And more importantly, China took the opportunity to update the National Standard for High-speed Railway Wheel TechnologyAdded 6 new material process and testing indicators, directly targeting the world's highest threshold.
Do Japanese and German companies want to return? OK, let's meet Chinese standards first! As a result, it was the other party's turn to be dumbfounded, because their existing products were stuck outside the door by the new regulations.
The surface is a commercial choice, the underlying logic is still the old way: with technology hegemony forcing you down the head. but they forget that China is not the "block sugar can hold" player.
In the past ten years, from shield machines to aerospace bearings, from chips to high-speed rail hinges, almost every "supply cut-off" in the West has become a "divine assist" independently developed by China. This wheel incident is just a replay of history.
To be honest, Japanese and German companies may not really want to lose the Chinese market completely.
In 2024, China's high-speed rail operating mileage will exceed 45,000 kilometers, accounting for 70% of the world's total. The annual wheel replacement and new demand exceeds 10 billionThey probably want to play “pressure negotiations” to raise prices or make concessions.
But the calculation made a mistake, China has already grasped the path of this kind of game: you confess, I instead accelerate the industry chain.
For example, special steel for wheels, China's Bao Woz Steel has already tried domestically last year, direct mass production this year; and the precision forging line of Jiangsu machine tool, in the half of the year, the good quality rate from 80% to 95%.
What's even more slapping is that Chinese standards have surpassed.
The new national standard includes a "continuous high-temperature braking stability test", which requires the wheel to keep the structure intact in an extreme environment of 400 ° C. This indicator was originally prepared in Europe for the next generation of high-speed railways, and China landed directly in advance.
The existing products have not yet passed the test and can only be watched.
To put it bluntly, in the era of technological hegemony, whoever sets the rules is the master. China speaks with standards, It's much more effective than talking about "free trade".
And some foreign media always love to render "China is isolated", but the reality is, China's industrial chain is deeply integrated into the global, you want to tear a piece of meat hard, you have to shed blood first.
After the supply was cut, BVV Group's revenue fell 18% in the second quarter, and the price of Resident Metal fell 7% in a week.
The Chinese market is one of their biggest sources of profits, losing orders, and the factory flow line is half straight away.
Instead of looking at China, why can we decrease the counter-conflict? because our industrial chain is too "thick". high-speed rail wheels involve tens of links such as metallurgy, precision processing, heat treatment, China is not a "workshop customs", but a whole link layout.
For example, the rail transit industrial park in Zhuzhou, Hunan Province, from material research and development to testing laboratories, all supply chain partners can be collected within five kilometers of Fiona Fang.
This ecology, Western enterprises withdrew, owned domestic enterprises supplement, and even can pull a number of small and medium-sized enterprises to upgrade, such as Zhejiang's permanent wheel factory, which originally made ordinary wheels, while transforming high-end, instead ate the policy dividend.
Besides, the game of globalization is no longer a one-way game of "whoever doesn't sell will suffer". China is now playing the dual output of "rules + market". You cut it off? OK, I produce it myself and upgrade it to the standard; You want to turn back? Gotta follow my rules.
This reversal, Western enterprises do not have to adapt, but have to accept, after all, the world does not find a second such large-scale market, which also supports the complete industrial system.
The farce of cutting off supply between Japan and Germany has taught the world a lesson: technological blockade can never force China to defeat, but will only force out a stronger China. Today's high-speed rail wheels, tomorrow's lithography machines, and aero-engines, the logic is actually the same. The core technology cannot be obtained by alms, and you have to rely on yourself to gnaw the bones.
Of course, let's not float. Mass production of domestically produced wheels is only the first step. Whether we can continue to take the lead in the future, It also depends on innovation iteration and international reputation.
But one thing is for sure: Chinese manufacturing is turning from a “pursuit” to a “regulator”, a process that may be accompanied by friction pains, but the direction will not change.
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